Thunder-Warriors Betting Preview: Keep Betting Against the Warriors Without Curry?

Thunder-Warriors Betting Preview: Keep Betting Against the Warriors Without Curry? article feature image

Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Steve Kerr and Kevin Durant

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Betting odds: Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors

  • Spread: Warriors -1.5
  • Over/Under: 223
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets

The Golden State Warriors are reeling without Stephen Curry, who is out yet again against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Can Kevin Durant and Co. turn things around against his former team? Our analysts dive in.

Betting Trends to Know

The Warriors have lost three straight games for only the third time in the Steve Kerr era. They’ve never lost four straight under Kerr.

They’ve also lost five of their past seven games. Since 2005, good teams that have won at least 60% of games have gone 94-114-2 (45%) against the spread in their next game after losing five of seven games. John Ewing

Nine days ago the Warriors were 11-2 and facing the Clippers on the road; the Warriors lost that game by five and shot 46.8% from the field.

The Dubs have since shot less than 45% from the field in their last four games — the sixth time that has occurred under Kerr. Four of their previous five games in this spot came in the NBA Finals against the Cavaliers, while the other was in March of last season in a home loss to the Bucks.

The Warriors lost all three games on their mini road trip, losing by 12 on the road in San Antonio before traveling home to face the Thunder.

Under Kerr, the Warriors are 18-14 ATS (56.3%) when they return to Oracle Arena the game after a road loss. When they have extra rest before returning home in that spot, they are just 7-7 ATS but 12-2 straight-up. Evan Abrams

Mears: Is the Betting Market Catching on to Steph’s Value?

Based on our NBA power ratings, this line should be about Warriors -1.5 without Curry, which is exactly where it is as of writing.

Two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought Curry was undervalued in the betting market. The reason is that oddsmakers don’t have incentive to really peg the true value of a player — they’re just trying to get equal action on both sides of the line. That means if the public thinks Steph is worth three, eight or zero points, oddsmakers are fine with that. Again, they want the juice.

I walked through just how poor the Warriors have been without their star point guard. Here were their advanced metrics since 2016-17 (when Durant came) with Steph off the floor as of writing that piece:

  • Steph on: 123.4 Offensive Rating, 59.4% eFG%, 101.8 pace
  • Steph off: 106.9 Offensive Rating, 52.9% eFG%, 95.2 pace

That has led to the Warriors performing terribly ATS in games that Steph has missed:

  • Warriors ATS without Steph: 13-22 (37.1%)
  • Under in games without Steph: 21-14 (60.0%)

Since that article was published? The Dubs have gone 0-5 ATS.

So the question now is whether this 1.5-spread accounts for that. I still don’t think so. It suggests that Steph is worth about five points, and I’d argue that still might be underrating him by a couple points, as crazy as that might sound.

So yeah, I’ll keep rolling with the Dubs’ opponent ATS, as well as the under. When you’ve hit five blackjacks in a row, you don’t walk away from the table. Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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