NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Value On Pacers vs. Wizards (Monday, August 3)

Pacers vs. Wizards Betting Odds

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The Pacers picked up a come-from-behind victory over the 76ers on Saturday with some heavy lifting from T.J. Warren. Warren dropped 53 on Philadelphia in the win, moving Indiana up to the 5-seed in the East, a game clear of its Saturday opponent.

The Pacers will be taking on the Wizards on Monday afternoon, whose season is on life support. Washington is coming off a matinée loss to Brooklyn on Sunday, 118-110. That means this will be the first back-to-back in the bubble, so we'll learn how heavy legs carry over by the day.

Indiana took the lone matchup between the two back in November, 121-107, covering the 3-point spread at home.

The Pacers opened as a 7.5-point favorite for this one with the total set at 227.5.

Indiana Pacers

We can’t discuss the Pacers without giving more respect to Warren’s game on Saturday. The Indy forward’s 53-piece propelled Indiana in the fourth quarter to get the outright winner against the Sixers as +225 underdogs.

Mind you that Victor Oladipo was on a minute’s restriction, Malcolm Brogdon was a surprising scratch and Domantas Sabonis is not with the team nursing a foot injury. And still the short-handed Pacers stunned the star-laden Sixers. Nate McMillan gets his team to play hard despite long odds.

Aaron Holiday chipped in a double-double on Saturday while JaKarr Sampson played admirable defense in a tough spot against Joel Embiid. This is a playoff team with a playoff rotation. Even if they are down All-Star caliber talent, they are going to show up at the very least.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are without their two best players from this season, Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans, and it is showing. Now 0-2 against two fringe playoff teams — Phoenix and Brooklyn — in the bubble thus far, the Wiz are forced into a back-to-back in this spot.

Washington has not been able to stop a nosebleed on defense yet, posting a defensive rating north of 116 in the bubble. For reference, Washington was the worst defensive team in the league this season by this metric at 115.1. Predictably, without key players, the Wizards defense has slipped. But against the likes of the Suns and Nets, the team is playing even worse.

Sunday afternoon's loss to the Nets was most likely the nail in the coffin for the Wizards, who is now eight back with six to play. Considering the roster constraints they have, making the playoffs are a far cry off. At this point, they're just going through the motions and trying to grab a victory so they have something to take as they return home.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a brutal spot for the Wizards. Not only did they play yesterday, they suffered a competitive loss to Brooklyn that will probably end their run at a play-in game.

It might be hard for Scott Brooks to get his team to show up after having its dreams crushed.

On the other side, the Pacers had an awesome fourth-quarter comeback to give them the inside track at the 5-seed. Oladipo is doubtful for this one due rest, so the Pacers are down a ball handler. Brogdon is questionable as of this writing, and make sure to track his status here.

All in all, laying 7.5 is just too short of a line for the Pacers against this Wizards team.

Thomas Bryant showed out Sunday against the Nets, but Myles Turner should be able to contain him. I like Indiana up to -9 if Brogdon is in. If he is out, Indiana will still have the talent advantage but will be missing a primary initiator and will be relying on Warren again. In that case I would be more cautious betting Indiana, but still like them at -5 as the Pacers will still have the talent and reason to play hard.

I'd wait to bet Indiana until we see Brogdon's status, but still think that's the only side to take.

I also do think the Over 227.5 is the play if you are interested in the total.

The Pacers showed that they're willing to run in their opener and the Wizards are playing at a top-10 pace with a two-game sample and can’t really stop anyone anyway.

Picks: Pacers -6.5; Over 227.5

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