PropBetGuy’s Thursday NBA Player Props: It’s Time To Fade Darius Garland In Cavs vs. Raptors

PropBetGuy breaks down his favorite NBA prop of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.

Darius Garland's Points-Rebounds-Assists

There is no doubt that Darius Garland has been on a tear recently. Over his last 14 games, the first-time NBA All Star is averaging 40.3 points-rebounds-assists (PRA), going over this line of 37.5 nine times over that stretch.

So why am I looking to fade him on Thursday night?

Quite simply, it’s the matchup.

The Raptors are the league’s best premier defense against point guards, allowing the fewest PRA per game to the position. Garland, as good as he’s been, has struggled in these tough matchups. In fact, in the 15 games he has played against the top-six point guard defenses this season, Garland averages 30.6 PRA, staying under this line in all but one game (a 93% success rate).

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As with most elite defenses against point guards, Toronto excels against the pick and roll. The Raptors allow the fewest points per game versus pick and roll ball handlers, and the third-fewest versus roll-men. With the former affecting Garland’s scoring and the latter his assists, this shapes up to be a very tough matchup with such a high line.

Overall, I’m counting on Raptors head coach Nick Nurse to game-plan against Garland by whatever means necessary.

I have the Vanderbilt alum projected for 33 PRA tonight.

Pick: Under 37.5 PRA (down to 36.5)

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