Kings vs Celtics Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (Friday, April 5)

Here's everything you need to know about Kings vs. Celtics on Friday, April 5 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Sacramento Kings travel to Boston, MA on Friday, after losing to the New York Knicks in Madison Square Garden 120-109 last night. The Boston Celtics have the rest advantage with Sacramento on a back-to-back, but the Kings have more to play for with their playoff hopes still in the balance.

Friday's game versus the Celtics will be the Kings' fourth game in six nights — and the second game of a four-game road trip.

Sacramento has been sort of a Jekyll-and-Hyde style team, playing terrible defense at home and strong defense on the road. At the Golden 1 Center, the Kings have just a 116 Defensive Rating compared to 114.3 away from Sacramento.

That might not seem like a big jump, but it’s a change from the 23rd-best home defense to the 10th-best road defense.

In part, that difference has led to a drastic split in home vs. away overs and unders. Sacramento has gone 21-16 to the over at home versus 13-22 on the road.

Part of that over/under discrepancy has to do with offensive and defensive numbers at home versus on the road. The Kings are 11th in offense at home (117.7) compared 13th on the road (115.2).

We just talked about the Kings' defensive success, which has come by limiting shots at the rim and 3-pointers. The Celtics have been a team that relies heavily on the latter. With a whopping 43.8% of their shot diet coming from deep, the Celtics take more 3s than any other team in the league.

What’s more impressive is that they make 39.5% of those shots. Given Boston's volume of shots, it’s wild that they’ve maintained such a high percentage. Normally, a team like the Kings might be able to stop a 3-point barrage given their ability to limit 3s; but for the last month, they have allowed opponents to shoot 37.3% from long range — down from 11th to 14th in the NBA.

Specifically, the Kings are leaving the corners open, and the Celtics make corner 3s at the highest clip in the league (43.2%).

A few players that could exploit that lack of perimeter defense are Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard who are take the most 3s of any Celtic. Their 3s and points props are appealing and both would benefit from an absence of Brown or White.

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I might normally look to the under tonight, purely based on the home/road splits for Sacramento, but the Celtics are also an excellent over team at home when looking at the team total. Boston should exploit Sacramento's defenders with ball movement, spacing and putting defenders in rotation.

Given the bad rest spot for Sacramento, I don’t want to have to rely on the Kings scoring. So, I’ll look to the Celtics team total over. They’re 21-13-1 to the team total over at home, including 7-2-1 in the last 10 games.

I’ll also monitor Pritchard and Hauser props based on the injury report. Brown missing the game is idea for both Pritchard and Hauser — but especially Pritchard. If Brown is out, then I’ll play both of their props — either points or 3s, depending on the number we get. Follow me in the Action Network App (@nbaWatts) to see how I play their props.

Pick: Celtics team total over (play to 120) · Pritchard/Hauser props