The Orlando Magic (3-3) and Detroit Pistons (3-3) will square off in Game 7 of their first-round NBA playoff series this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET from Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Pistons are 8.5-point favorites over the Magic on the spread (Pistons -8.5), with the over/under set at 202.5 total points. Detroit is a -325 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Orlando is +260 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Magic vs. Pistons predictions and NBA picks for Game 7 on Sunday, May 3.
Magic vs Pistons Prediction
- Magic vs Pistons pick: Magic Moneyline (+260)
My Magic vs. Pistons Game 7 best bet is on Orlando moneyline at +260. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Magic vs Pistons Odds for Game 7
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 202.5 -105o / -115u | +260 |
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 202.5 -105o / -115u | -325 |
Magic vs Pistons NBA Playoffs Game 7 Preview
Orlando Magic Betting Preview, Analysis
The Pistons return home for today's series finale, and they are listed as 8.5-point favorites over the Magic. However, the road teams have been doing very well lately in these Game 7s.
It’s likely noise, but I do think this one might be different. Road underdogs are 7-6 SU and ATS in Game 7s since 2021-22, when fans returned to arenas after the pandemic.
Teams that are road 'dogs who were up 3-1 in the series are 5-4 SU and ATS in Game 7s since 2003. It's a tiny sample, but it's also crazy that underdogs are literally above .500 SU.
Detroit Pistons Betting Preview, Analysis
The Pistons have bounced around a lot this series. Game 1 was a positive outlier performance for the Magic offensively. Game 3 was the classic spot for Orlando to win at home in the first home game of the playoffs. Game 4 was Detroit making a bunch of wild mistakes and turnovers.
Game 6 was an outlier bad offensive game from Orlando, even for the Magic. It is simply impossible for any team to be that bad offensively in consecutive games.
So, between the bounce-back offensive regression, the trend of road teams taking Game 7s, and the fact that whenever we think things have swung definitively in one direction, everything seems to turn around in these playoffs.
Magic vs Pistons Pick, Betting Analysis
Magic Moneyline
Only 10 of the last 34 underdogs in Game 7 covered but didn’t win outright.
Game 7s are largely coin flips. Most of the adjustments have already been made.
The Pistons certainly seem like they’ve turned a corner and righted the ship. However, the Magic have consistently proven they can hang in this series, and they present Detroit’s suspect offense with a bunch of problems.
I like the Magic to win outright in Game 7 today. No play the spread here; only the +260 moneyline.
Under 202.5
When the total for Game 7 is more than three points lower than the average total in the rest of the series, the under is 26-16 (62%) since 2003. It’s 15-8 in Eastern Conference Games in that structure.
The odds are saying that either Orlando's offense remains where they were in Game 6 and Detroit puts the clamps down, or the Pistons join them in a miasma of terrible basketball.
This is not a rock fight. It is a sewer slinging contest. Watch your head, don’t get any on you, and bet the under.
Jalen Duren Over 9.5 Rebounds & Assists
Jalen Duren's rebounds & assists line was 12.5 in Game 5, and then 8.5 in Game 6, which he went over, so now it is back up at 9.5.
Duren has gone over 9.5 rebounds & assists in all but the first game of the series.
The Magic are becoming increasingly desperate to blitz Cade Cunningham and get the ball out of his hands, and the Pistons have responded by setting higher screens, giving Duren more room to pass on the short-roll.
He has recorded two-plus assists in four of six games in this series, and eight or more rebounds in each of the last five games.
Jalen Suggs Under 18.5 Points & Assists
Jalen Suggs hasn’t gone over this line since Game 2. His shot isn’t there; he's slowly fading off.
The Pistons are cramming the paint, and if I’m expecting an under, this seems like a logical result.
Matt Moore's Magic vs Pistons Best Bets
- Magic Moneyline (+260)
- Under 202.5 (-115)
- Jalen Duren Over 9.5 Rebounds & Assists (-135)
- Jalen Suggs Under 18.5 Points & Assists (-120)
