2024 NCAA Baseball Tournament Odds, Predictions: Our Top College Baseball Super Regional Picks

2024 NCAA Baseball Tournament Odds, Predictions: Our Top College Baseball Super Regional Picks article feature image

Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: The NCAA baseball trophy next to a base.

2024 NCAA Baseball Tournament Odds

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Knoxville Super Regional
Lexington Super Regional
College Station Super Regional
Chapel Hill Super Regional
Clemson Super Regional
Athens Super Regional
Tallahassee Super Regional
Charlottesville Super Regional

Following the conclusion of Regionals, college baseball moves to the penultimate event of the season — a Sweet 16-esque event known as the Super Regionals.

The sport saw 64 teams in 16 different Regionals conclude late Monday night. A number of teams are looking to prove themselves worthy of their high seeds, while others are firmly in Cinderella territory.

Both the SEC and ACC are sending five teams apiece, as the conferences are pitted against each other in Athens and Clemson.

The format for the previous weekend in Regionals was double elimination, but the Supers bring a head-to-head format with a best-of-three series.

Four of the Super Regional sites will start on Friday, while the remaining contests start on Saturday with a Monday conclusion if a third game is needed.

This article will look at the starting pitching matrix for all Super Regionals, factoring in bullpen and offensive analytics. The goal is to formulate a series price, also known as the percentage chance a team has to win based on its three-game rotation.

The weekend is filled with a boatload of 3-seeds, along with a David-and-Goliath scenario when a Missouri Valley team travels to Knoxville to take on the No. 1 overall seed.

First, let's take a look at all the projected pitching matchups for the Super Regionals. The matchups are integrated with stopper, reliever and bullpen ERA, FIP and xFIP.

Those numbers, along with defensive efficiency, calculated base runs and park factors, compile our targets for each Super Regional.

No. 1 Tennessee vs. Evansville

Tennessee: -1400 · Evansville: +800

There may not be a more fascinating Super Regional than Knoxville.

Tennessee will continue its attempt to shed the curse of the No. 1 overall seed, as the last team to win a national title as the nation's No. 1 seed was Miami in 1999. Wake Forest held this title a season ago, losing in the Omaha bracket finals to eventual national champion LSU.

The Volunteers dominated their home Regional, needing only three games to advance.

Tennessee defeated Northern Kentucky, Indiana and Southern Miss with a combined run differential of +21 thanks to a number of sticks continuing to stay hot at the plate.


📺 https://t.co/Q0ozvr0o9K (ESPNU)#GBO // #OTH // #BeatIUpic.twitter.com/GljhVhJYiQ

— Tennessee Baseball (@Vol_Baseball) June 1, 2024

The main story comes from the visitors, as the Evansville Purple Aces represent the biggest underdog remaining in the tournament as a Regional 4-seed.

Head coach Wes Carroll has coached his alma mater for 16 seasons, winning a Regional for the first time in program history last week.

The Purple Aces needed every aspect of their game to come through, whether it was scoring double-digits in a rout of VCU, timely bullpen efficiency or near-circus catches all weekend from the outfield.

Evansville's best chance to take a game will be in the opener, when Kenton Deverman is penciled in to face the Tennessee combination of Chris Stamos and AJ Causey.

Tennessee anchor Drew Beam is scheduled to start in Game 2 against Evansville's Donovan Schultz, making it a tougher matchup for the Purple Aces.

There are two methodologies to getting money down if an appetite for the underdog persists. The true odds for Tennessee at its home field resides at 89%, correlating to a series price of -770.

While the opening series price is favorable for Evansville, there's virtually no chance of cashing that ticket without an opening win. Look to back the Evansville run line in the first game after Deverman is announced for the Purple Aces.

Pick: Game 1 — Evansville Run Line (With Deverman Pitching)

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No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Oregon State

Kentucky: -140 · Oregon State: +110

The Wildcats and Beavers zipped through their respective Regionals, playing the minimum three games.

Kentucky beat Western Michigan, Illinois and Indiana State with a run differential of +12.

The rotation order was notable, as head coach Nick Mingione elected to move typical Game 1 starter Trey Pooser to Game 2, moving Dominic Niman to the opener.

Stopper Cameron O'Brien made two appearances from the bullpen, generating seven strikeouts over 3 1/3 innings.

The Wildcats played to their strengths, letting the pitching staff take the lead while hitting just enough to win games. Ranking 13th in fielding percentage, Kentucky showed elite leather from the field.


💻https://t.co/nKaZbu0Pm8 (@ESPNPlus)#WeAreUK x #RoadToOmaha | @grantsmithnmpic.twitter.com/pL4f49Orw1

— Kentucky Baseball (@UKBaseball) June 2, 2024

On the other side, a Big West sleeper came to Corvallis only to be sent back home packing. The Beavers cruised in an opener against the AAC's Tulane before taking two games from UC Irvine to win the Regional.

Jacob Kmatz was excellent in Game 2, but the heroes of the weekend came in the stopper-closer combination of Nelson Keljo and Bridger Holmes.

Oregon State finished with a +13 run differential through the three games, relying on an offense that finished top-10 in slugging and on-base percentage.

Travis Bazzana also continued his assault at the plate, homering in two of the three games during the Corvallis Regional.

Travis Bazzana 💣

The Oregon State star is No. 1 in our updated mock draft today.https://t.co/4yA0pwE5Ca

(🎥 @BeaverBaseball)pic.twitter.com/PRdT35Xikg

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) June 1, 2024

This Super Regional should be the most tightly contested series of the weekend.

Oregon State is projected as a slight favorite in all three games, assuming Pooser returns to his Game 1 spot on Saturday. No projection favors either team by -125 or better.

The true odds for the series favor Oregon State with a 56% probability of winning the Super Regional. The chances of winning correlate to -125 in favor of the Beavers, as the tight lines give consumers the opportunity to buy and hedge before each game.

Pick: Oregon State -105 or Better

No. 3 Texas A&M vs. Oregon

Texas A&M: -320 · Oregon: +250

The College Station Regional final was a bit anti-climactic.

Texas A&M defended Blue Bell Park to advance as host of the Supers, but it was a Game 2 showdown against the Texas Longhorns that had the ballpark buzzing. As the Aggies and Longhorns renewed their rivalry, a walk and a single were the difference for Texas A&M.

Credit must be given to head coach Jim Schlossnagle, as the Aggies had no hangover the following day in a closeout game against Louisiana.

THE ROOKIE GOES OPPO 🌮#GigEm x @GavinGrahovacpic.twitter.com/h4zZ1YvocW

— Texas A&M Baseball (@AggieBaseball) June 3, 2024

Oregon, meanwhile, flashed its 12-7 road record in the Santa Barbara Regional, winning with the minimum three games by taking down host UC Santa Barbara twice.

The 3-seed is sure to have detractors in College Station after posting a run differential of just +5 during Regional weekend.

The Ducks' pitching annihilated the Gauchos' lineup, limiting UC Santa Barbara to a grand total of eight hits and one run in 18 total innings. Starters Grayson Grinsell and Kevin Seitter dominated through 16 combined innings, so Oregon didn't have to dip into a bullpen that hovers around 5.2 in ERA and xFIP.

No opening line in the Supers will have a pitcher favored higher in the opener than Texas A&M's Ryan Prager. The anchor projects above -1000 against Oregon's RJ Gordon.

Not only do the Aggies hold an elite pitching advantage with the season-long numbers, but the lineup averages nearly two full runs more than the Ducks.

Oregon does have four players who have hit 10 home runs or more, but that's unsubstantial compared to Texas A&M's trio of Jace LaViolette, Braden Montgomery and Gavin Grahovac's 77 total home runs.

Texas A&M's true odds come in with a 96% probability of winning the College Station Super Regional. No amount of steam in the market will get the Aggies to their true series price of -1000.

Oregon's best shot to win this series is to follow a similar path as Santa Barbara: produce low-scoring games and keep the Aggies out of the Ducks' bullpen.

Unfortunately for UO, Texas A&M is firing on all cylinders while looking for its seventh trip to Omaha and its first-ever national title.

Pick: Texas A&M -400 or Better

No. 4 North Carolina vs. West Virginia

North Carolina: -220 · West Virginia: +180

The best Regional of the opening weekend took place in Chapel Hill. North Carolina staved off surging defending national champion LSU in the winner-take-all final game of the series.

After dropping a Sunday night game to the Tigers, North Carolina produced a game-tying run in the ninth and the winning run in the 10th to advance just one day later.

Staff anchor Jason DeCaro threw two innings and allowed the beef of the Tar Heels' bullpen to close the game, as Dalton Pence and Matthew Matthijs shut the Tigers down.

Nearly two years ago today, Dalton Pence pitched his second game for @ForestCityOwls as @DiamondHeels were making a super regional push.

This weekend, he helped UNC back to supers, allowing two runs while throwing 117 pitches over 8.1 stellar innings. pic.twitter.com/2y7kEbA6zN

— Pat James (@patjames24) June 4, 2024

The Tar Heels are primed for a deep run in Omaha from a high-level look at the analytics. North Carolina ranks top 25 in staff ERA, slugging percentage and scoring.

Vance Honeycutt is in the conversation as the best player in the nation, as the outfielder has racked up 24 home runs and 28 stolen bases.

All of those numbers will be needed against another hungry 3-seed in West Virginia.

The Mountaineers pulled off the unlikely Regional upset after a quick two losses and an exit from the Big 12 Tournament. Despite taking a number of losses to Big 12 teams that failed to make the postseason in May, West Virginia played the minimum number of games in Tucson.

Head coach Randy Mazey relied on the pitching staff to generate a +10 run differential in three games against Dallas Baptist and Grand Canyon.

Derek Clark was assigned opening-game duties against one of the best pitchers in the nation in DBU's Ryan Johnson. The senior transfer from Division II Northwood threw a complete game, giving up just four hits and a single earned run.

When you look up "competitor" in the dictionary, you see a picture of Derek Clark 💪@WVUBaseball x @dclark3012pic.twitter.com/TnCZMRJikA

— D1Baseball (@d1baseball) May 31, 2024

North Carolina will be a moderate favorite in every pitching combination.

The season-long statistics show a large discrepancy in offensive play, with North Carolina averaging 2.2 runs per game more than West Virginia.

Although Clark is the best option, the Mountaineers project as +200 underdogs in the opening game.

The Tar Heel's true odds give them an 84% probability of winning the home series, correlating to the price of -525.

Pick: North Carolina -250 or Better

No. 6 Clemson vs. Florida

Clemson: -165 · Florida: +135

Straight from the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast with respect to Regionals, the mathematics liked Oklahoma State, while the betting senses preferred Florida in the Stillwater Regional.

The Gators are impossible to quantify, generating the highest strength of schedule of any Division I program. Head coach Kevin O'Sullivan experienced a post-Omaha hangover, teetering around .500 for much of the season.

Turnover in the pitching staff caused plenty of headaches in early-season losses to Saint Mary's, Jacksonville and Missouri. Florida entered the season with inexperienced underclassmen looking to claim a starting spot. Fast forward to Regionals, and the Gators advanced thanks to wins from freshman Liam Peterson and sophomore Pierce Coppola.

Florida wins 1st game of Stillwater Regional, 5-2 vs Nebraska

Freshman RHP Liam Peterson showed dynamic stuff earning win for @GatorsBB, ultra projectable firing 96-99 mph FBs early with a sharp 83-85 SL, an 84-85 CH and a 74-79 CB, 1st of 7 Ks in 5.1 IP ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/6kQaSNpmGH

— Patrick Ebert (@PatrickEbert44) May 31, 2024

Clemson left no doubt in its home Regional this past weekend, recording three straight wins over High Point and Coastal Carolina.

Head coach Erik Bakich will attempt to do with Clemson what he did with Michigan in 2019: reach the championship series of the College World Series. The Tigers haven't been to Omaha since 2010, failing to win a national title in 12 trips to the CWS.

Similar to other Regionals, Clemson advanced thanks to the backend of its bullpen. Austin Gordon and Lucas Mahlstedt form a lethal combination that shut down two one-run games this past weekend.

The question for this Super is the exact question that existed heading into the Stillwater Regional: Does the math support another upset from Florida?

Game 3 starter Coppola brings an ERA of 9.16, while a bevy of staff pitchers who lead in appearances have bloated numbers. Luke McNeillie, Cade Fisher and Blake Purnell all own an ERA north of seven.

When Florida's numbers include the names mentioned above, the series price comes out to Clemson -220.

All that said, Florida has the closest living reincarnation of Shohei Ohtani in college baseball.

Jac Caglianone swats home run No. 31 behind a reported 119 mph exit velocity!

MLB's No. 3 Draft prospect boasts 70-grade power and stands alone with multiple 30-homer seasons in the SEC: https://t.co/6LF3g2ljln

(🎥: @GatorsBB)pic.twitter.com/loC7wATqvC

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) June 2, 2024

For this Super only, more weight can be placed on Jac Caglianone's projected start in Game 2 against freshman Aidan Knaak if Game 3 numbers are removed. Without Coppola and the bullpen ERA calculated from Game 3, Clemson's series price dips from -220 to -150.

This Florida team full of freshmen has yet to find its ceiling. Giving the Gators a chip and a chair not only calls for a wager on the series but also any national title odds greater than 30-1.

Pick: Florida +150 or Better

golden spikes-odds-college baseball-award-jac caglianone-nick kurtz-jj wetherholt-josh hartle-2024
Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Florida's Jac Caglianone.

No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 NC State

Georgia: -150 · NC State: +120

Georgia played the role of the comeback kids in a sweep of the Athens Regional. The Bulldogs trailed both Army and Georgia Tech late in each contest, leaning on one of the best power lineups in the nation to advance.

While Charlie Condon gets his due respect for leading the nation in home runs with the potential of being the top pick in the MLB Draft, last weekend belonged to shortstop Kolby Branch.

Not only did the Baylor transfer hit his fourth grand slam of the year, but Branch single-handedly kept the Bulldogs alive against the Yellow Jackets.


— SEC Unfiltered (@SECUnfiltered) June 3, 2024

NC State made quick work of the Raleigh Regional, comfortably winning all three games against Bryant, South Carolina and James Madison.

In 27 innings of play, the Wolfpack trailed just a single inning the entire weekend. Starters Sam Highfill, Dom Fritton and Logan Whitaker gave up only two earned runs apiece. At the plate, First baseman Garrett Pennington dominated for multiple extra-base hits.

NC State came in hot down the stretch after sweeping Wake Forest, taking a series against Virginia and splitting with Florida State.

This series will be offensively charged, as both teams bring a staff ERA and xFIP higher than 5.6.

Georgia has been a powerhouse all season with slugging, set up by leadoff man Corey Collins. The Bulldogs average the second-highest offensive output of all Super Regional teams at 9.7 via an average of runs per game and calculated base runs.

Both Leighton Finley and Kolten Smith fetch odds at -300 or better in the opening games against Highfill and Fritton. With odds of 86% to take the head-to-head, Georgia's true odds are much higher than the market at -625.

Pick: Georgia -150 or Better

No. 8 Florida State vs. UConn

Florida State: -330 · UConn: +255

Florida State is another ACC team that made quick work of its Regional. The Seminoles didn't need to break a sweat in three wins with a run differential of +16 against Stetson and UCF.

The highlight of the weekend didn't come from an offense that ranks top-15 in slugging, batting average and scoring but from the staff anchor throwing an immaculate inning.

If you've got 2.5 minutes…all 9 pitches in @_JamieArnold13 Immaculate second inning pic.twitter.com/WYSow0yicX

— FSU Baseball (@FSUBaseball) June 2, 2024

Jamie Arnold averages nearly six innings per outing, bringing a sub-2.5 ERA with an arsenal that produced 146 strikeouts.

Arnold is not alone from a production standpoint with the staff, as Carson Dorsey came up one out short of a complete game against Stetson.

If the Seminoles want to advance to Omaha for the 24th time in program history, a pesky regional 3-seed awaits in UConn.

The Huskies are still surprising in June despite this being their sixth consecutive trip to the postseason. UConn previously won three Regionals with the latest coming in 2022, but it hasn't made a trip to Omaha since 1979.

With the focus on Duke and Oklahoma in the Norman Regional, the three wins posted by the Huskies against the Blue Devils and Sooners had a cumulative final score of 15-3.

Pitcher Ian Cooke and Braden Quinn started off the Regional by shutting down the hottest offense in the ACC Tournament, limiting Duke to one earned run. Stephen Quigley took the mound in the winners' bracket against a hot Oklahoma squad, besting Sooners ace Braden Davis by allowing just a single earned run.

While the Huskies did nothing to improve their poor offensive numbers, the pitching staff put on a clinic in shutting down two capable Power 5 offenses.

Florida State projects at -300 or higher in games not started by Arnold. There's a massive difference in offense between these two clubs, with UConn averaging 6.6 runs per game to the Seminoles' 8.7.

While the bullpen ERA and xFIP are nearly identical for the two teams, the starting pitching staffs and hitting lineups are the vast difference. Florida State has a 91% chance to win the weekend, translating to true odds of -875.

Pick: Florida State -375

No. 12 Virginia vs. Kansas State

Virginia: -230 · Kansas State: +185

The Kansas State Wildcats were not on the bubble when the selection committee announced the field of 64. Other Big 12 teams were expected to make the cut, particularly a TCU team that beat Kansas State in the conference tournament.

After having their hearts broken from not making the field in 2023, the Wildcats cashed in on their berth in the Fayetteville Regional and are now playing with house money.

After a dominant offensive performance against Louisiana Tech, Kansas State rang up soon-to-be MLB pitcher Hagen Smith for six earned runs in a victory over the hosting Razorbacks.

LET HIM COOK! #KStateBSB x @thechosen1kcpic.twitter.com/8cUuVsjAoO

— K-State Baseball (@KStateBSB) June 2, 2024

Going from a pitcher's park in Baum-Walker Stadium to the nuclear blastoff site of Disharoon Park, the Wildcats must bring plenty of offense to keep up with Virginia.

The Cavaliers have the highest park factors number of any team in the Power 5. Hoos head coach Brian O'Connor has the sticks to rumble in their home park, as Virginia ranks top-10 in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, doubles and scoring.

The Cavaliers' weakness is the bullpen, heading into this series with a higher staff ERA and xFIP.

Virginia projects as a -250 to -320 favorite depending on the pitching matchup. Although Kansas State averaged a low 6.3 runs per game on the season, the Wildcats walked away averaging 11 per game against Arkansas, Louisiana Tech and Southeast Missouri State.

Virginia has an 82% chance to win the series, making -430 is the last number to buy on the Hoos.

Pick: Virginia -250

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