UNC vs West Virginia Odds, Prediction: Chapel Hill Super Regional Pick for 2024 NCAA Baseball Tournament

UNC vs West Virginia Odds, Prediction: Chapel Hill Super Regional Pick for 2024 NCAA Baseball Tournament article feature image
Credit:

Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: UNC pitcher Dalton Pence.

UNC vs West Virginia Odds

North Carolina Tar Heels Odds-280
West Virginia Mountaineers Odds+210

Read Collin Wilson's full college baseball betting preview for the 2024 NCAA Super Regionals here.


The best Regional of the opening weekend took place in Chapel Hill. North Carolina staved off surging defending national champion LSU in the winner-take-all final game of the series.

After dropping a Sunday night game to the Tigers, North Carolina produced a game-tying run in the ninth and the winning run in the 10th to advance just one day later.

Staff anchor Jason DeCaro threw two innings and allowed the beef of the Tar Heels' bullpen to close the game, as Dalton Pence and Matthew Matthijs shut the Tigers down.

Nearly two years ago today, Dalton Pence pitched his second game for @ForestCityOwls as @DiamondHeels were making a super regional push.

This weekend, he helped UNC back to supers, allowing two runs while throwing 117 pitches over 8.1 stellar innings. pic.twitter.com/2y7kEbA6zN

— Pat James (@patjames24) June 4, 2024

The Tar Heels are primed for a deep run in Omaha from a high-level look at the analytics. North Carolina ranks top 25 in staff ERA, slugging percentage and scoring.

Vance Honeycutt is in the conversation as the best player in the nation, as the outfielder has racked up 24 home runs and 28 stolen bases.

All of those numbers will be needed against another hungry 3-seed in West Virginia.

The Mountaineers pulled off the unlikely Regional upset after a quick two losses and an exit from the Big 12 Tournament. Despite taking a number of losses to Big 12 teams that failed to make the postseason in May, West Virginia played the minimum number of games in Tucson.

Head coach Randy Mazey relied on the pitching staff to generate a +10 run differential in three games against Dallas Baptist and Grand Canyon.

Derek Clark was assigned opening-game duties against one of the best pitchers in the nation in DBU's Ryan Johnson. The senior transfer from Division II Northwood threw a complete game, giving up just four hits and a single earned run.

When you look up "competitor" in the dictionary, you see a picture of Derek Clark 💪@WVUBaseball x @dclark3012pic.twitter.com/TnCZMRJikA

— D1Baseball (@d1baseball) May 31, 2024

North Carolina will be a moderate favorite in every pitching combination.

The season-long statistics show a large discrepancy in offensive play, with North Carolina averaging 2.2 runs per game more than West Virginia.

Although Clark is the best option, the Mountaineers project as +200 underdogs in the opening game.

The Tar Heel's true odds give them an 84% probability of winning the home series, correlating to the price of -525.

Pick: North Carolina -250 or Better

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