NCAAB Odds, Pick for Arizona vs Colorado: Big Pac-12 Game

It's a quick turnaround for both Arizona and Colorado — they both play their second game in three days — but the position they enter is drastically different.

Colorado took on Arizona State at home on Thursday, cruising to a double-digit win. The Buffs will remain in Boulder as they await an Arizona team fresh off a grueling triple overtime win against Utah. With an already thin rotation, the Wildcats were able to secure a win in elevation — but at what cost?

In a must-win game for Colorado, can the Buffs secure a resume-boosting victory and take down the Pac-12's best?

This is arguably the hardest travel spot for Arizona all season.

The Wildcats staved off an upset-hungry Utah team on Thursday, but it took three overtimes to finally pull out the win.

Perhaps the most concerning of all is the wear and tear on Arizona’s rotation. The foursome of Caleb Love, Pelle Larsson, Oumar Ballo and Keshad Johnson all played 43+ minutes. Kylan Boswell hurt his shoulder and returned, but that injury could linger with a 48-hour turnaround time.

There’s a lot to love about this Arizona offense. The Wildcats are sixth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and play at an elite pace. They attack the rim on nearly half of their possessions, using their length and physicality to create second-chance opportunities galore.

When this offense gets rolling, it’s near-impossible to stop. The Wildcats are efficient, have a high-volume scorer in Love and a double-double machine in Ballo. Tack on the likes of Larsson and Johnson, and this is as well-rounded an offense as any.

The Wildcats aren’t deep — just 270th in bench minutes — which is where the possible concern for fresh legs comes from.

Also, living and dying by Love can sometimes prove deadly and lead to the Arizona offense stalling. He isn’t shy to shoot and finished 5-of-20 in that triple OT win on Thursday.

Defensively, there’s a bit of a concern, and we saw it with Utah’s second-half comeback to force overtime.

While the Wildcats are elite at rebounding, they struggle from the perimeter (258th in 3p% allowed). ShotQuality numbers back the struggles, as they rank 253rd in defending catch-and-shoot 3s and are 344th in defending off-the-dribble 3s.

Arizona wants to turn the game into a track meet and tire you out. It wants to put up as many points as possible.

Ballo has proven to be a strong rim protector and the pickup of Johnson in the transfer portal has paid dividends, but there remains a lot to be had in the backcourt defensively.

While Arizona is the heavy favorite to win the Pac-12, it's slipped up on the road. All three conference losses have come away from Tucson.

When it comes to well-rounded teams in the Pac-12, Colorado is up there with the best of them, even if the results haven’t proved it. This is a long, athletic, veteran-led Buffs squad, one that's unbeatable at home.

When it comes to playing on the road, it’s been a different story for Tad Boyle’s unit. The Buffs are 1-5 in Pac-12 play away from the CU Events Center (6-0 at home). KenPom ranks Colorado fifth when it comes to home-court advantage (4.2).

This rollercoaster season has featured the injury bug too, though Colorado looks like it’s finally at full health. Cody Williams returned on Thursday after missing last week against Utah, while Luke O’Brien remained out.

O’Brien did warm up and was reportedly expected to play — though he never did. It’s hard to imagine the senior missing CU’s biggest game of the season.

In general, this is one of the tallest teams in college hoops. The Buffs are elite on the defensive glass and create plenty of second-chance opportunities via the physicality of TCU transfer Eddie Lampkin Jr. He ranks sixth in Pac-12 play in offensive rebounding and second in free-throw rate.

Everyone is so enamored by Arizona’s run and gun offense — as they should be — but Colorado can put up some video game numbers as well. It's 25th in eFG% and shoots lights out from the perimeter. In the Buffs' last four wins, they've scored no less than 82 points.

KJ Simpson leads that charge as the engine of CU’s offense. He takes nearly 30% of the shots when he's on the floor, ranks inside the top five in conference play in assist rate and is a scoring machine (19.4 PPG).

The key for this Buffaloes offense is the aforementioned Williams and Tristan da Silva, who provide relief for Simpson. Both missed the blowout loss to Arizona earlier in the season and are Colorado's second- and third-leading scorers.

Williams, especially, has been critical on both ends of the floor, and we’ve seen his elite scoring prowess in the past. But as we know, freshmen are inconsistent at times. He's a huge boost on the defensive end, which is where CU struggles the most.

Colorado is outside the top 100 in eFG% and aside from limiting second-chance opportunities to the opposition, it doesn't force turnovers and has struggled in the pick-and-roll, per ShotQuality.

This is a true must-win for Colorado, as it currently sits on the bubble in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology. The biggest plus of all is CU gets to stay home after Thursday night’s win over Arizona State, while Arizona has to travel after a long, physical win at Utah.

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The one thing missing from Colorado's NCAA tournament resume is a lack of a true marquee win. It finally has that opportunity on Saturday when it faces an Arizona team fresh off a physical triple OT win.

This is also a perfect revenge spot for the Buffs, who were embarrassed in Tucson just over a month ago. They were shorthanded at the time and will likely have their full cast back for Saturday.

I was hoping to get a better number on Colorado, but given the heavy minutes and quick turnaround for Arizona, CU opened as a 1.5-point favorite.

Grab this number while you can.

Tired legs — paired with Arizona's struggles on the road — sets up for a very winnable game for Boyle's squad. Not to mention this will be the Wildcats' second-straight game in elevation.

Back Colorado in its must-win game in front of a raucous crowd on Saturday.

Pick: Colorado -1 (Play to -2.5)