Battle 4 Atlantis Odds, Picks | 4 Bets for First Round

In the Pacific, we have one of the best early-season tournament fields (Maui Invitational) that any college basketball fan can remember.

But in the Atlantic, the Battle 4 Atlantis tips off on Wednesday with a field consisting of North Carolina, Arkansas, Villanova and others.

Let's get this Feast Week tournament started with Battle 4 Atlantis odds and picks, including four first-round games to bet on Wednesday, Nov. 22.

Battle 4 Atlantis First-Round Picks

By Greg Waddell

A Thanksgiving appetizer awaits when Northern Iowa takes on North Carolina in the first round of the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. This tournament is always one of the most exciting during Feast Week, and this game will be no exception.

The Tar Heels are rolling entering this first-round matchup, with three wins in their first three games.

Northern Iowa can't say the same, as it has yet to beat a Division I opponent through two weeks.

These programs have a little bit of history against each other, as they played three years in a row from 2015 to 2017. Northern Iowa won the first game in the series before the Tar Heels won the next two.

Carolina will look to build off its early-season momentum, and this will be an interesting test.

The Northern Iowa program historically has been a mid-major known to give high-major teams problems. That hasn't been the case in the last calendar year, though.

Last season, the Panthers went just 14-18 overall, losing nine of their last 11 games.

That downward slide has continued into the beginning of this year, as Northern Iowa has lost its only two games against Division I opponents, an overtime loss to North Texas and a nine-point defeat on the road against South Florida.

Those teams aren't cupcakes, but they aren't North Carolina either. Northern Iowa doesn't provide much resistance defensively (172nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency) and is even worse defending the 3-point line specifically (allowing 41.9% from deep).

They will have their hands full with the Tar Heels.

Enter North Carolina, which has handled all three opponents it's faced with relative ease.

Despite playing a back-and-forth game with Radford, Carolina ultimately prevailed by 16 points. The Heels have scored 77, 90 and 86 points in three games and will look to push tempo against a Panthers team that prefers to play slower.

North Carolina currently ranks 18th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (KenPom), which will be a monstrous challenge for the Panthers to guard. RJ Davis has been incredible, and with Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram alongside him as new wings, the Heels have more cohesiveness as an offensive unit than they've had in years.

Carolina is great at avoiding fouls, ranking third in the country in free throw attempt % allowed. That maps with Northern Iowa, which rarely ever gets to the line.

There won't be anything easy for the Panthers in this one.

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It's hard to see Northern Iowa hanging in this one for 40 minutes. The Panthers have the offensive gusto to make some shots early, but much like North Carolina's first game against Radford, the Tar Heels are too deep and too talented on both sides of the ball for this to remain close for long.

I like North Carolina to earn a decisive cover to start the Battle 4 Atlantis off right.

Pick: North Carolina -12.5

By Shane McNichol

In a Battle 4 Atlantis with a strong field, but no glaring favorite, the winner of Wednesday's matchup between the Villanova Wildcats and Texas Tech Red Raiders will have its eyes on Thursday's title game.

Both teams are talented enough to do so, with each bringing a unique set of challenges in this fast-paced tournament environment.

It's Grant McCasland's first year as head coach in Lubbock and thus far, the Red Raiders have held the status quo. Tech is playing a slow pace and defending at an elite level, just like McCasland's North Texas teams have been doing for the last few years.

The Red Raiders rank in the top 10 nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and haven't allowed an opponent over .9 points per possession.

The offense hasn't gotten off the ground yet, but it will be built on the backcourt. Sophomore guard Pop Isaacs is the leading scorer and primary creator so far, joined on the perimeter by Iowa-then-West Virginia transfer Joe Toussaint. His hard-nosed, high-energy playing style should fit right into McCasland's coaching scheme.

It's hard to really get a grasp on this team yet, given the level of competition to date. Tech has only played three games so far. Dozens of Division I teams have doubled that number, with some having played seven contests already.

The Red Raiders' three opponents have been two Texas A&M satellite campuses — plus San Jose State — with all three games being played at home.

This trip to the Bahamas could be eye-opening for Texas Tech.

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While Texas Tech has been untested, we've already seen Villanova at its best and worst so far this season.

Wildcat fans were concerned about this season following a loss to city-rival Penn. Sure, a road game within Philly's Big 5 is no sure thing, but Villanova shouldn't be getting out-rebounded (and little bit bullied in the paint) by Penn, nor losing to an Ivy League team that turned it over twice as often as the Cats.

The worries created by the Penn game were offset immediately in Villanova's next outing, where the Wildcats routed Maryland. The Terps shot 12-of-60 from the floor in that game and trailed by as many as 32 points. Maryland had just 19 points at the halfway mark of the second half. If not for 17 Villanova turnovers, the Wildcats could've really run up a massive winning margin.

These kinds of swings in play may seem volatile, but in some way, it's expected of Villanova. This team takes 3-pointers at the fifth-highest rate in the country and has the 12th-highest percentage of points from long range, per KenPom.

In today's modern game, that can work for a team with great shooters. Villanova, however, has plenty of good shooters, yet few that stand out.

Take the career shooting marks of Villanova's top seven players and you'll end up with a shooting percentage around the national average. That can lead to some cold nights, like a 9-of-33 game versus Penn, where everyone but Justin Moore and Eric Dixon combined to shoot 3-of-18 from downtown.

It's also a risky game to rely on 3s while playing at a slow pace. It leaves Villanova very susceptible to a cold shooting spell, which can lead to unlikely losses.

Early in the season, we're still dealing with some small sample sizes, yet it might be time to expect some regression to creep in.

Through three games, all against pedestrian competition, Texas Tech is shooting just 20.6% from downtown. For reference, no team shot under 26% for the season last year, and Tech hit better than 34% from deep for the year.

Four Red Raiders have taken the lion's share of this season's attempts. Three (Isaacs, Toussaint and Darrion Williams) are shooting below their career average. Chance McMillian hit 42% from deep on a high volume of attempts for Grand Canyon last year, but is just 3-of-13 so far this season.

Shooting regression will come for Texas Tech — its a matter of how quickly and how decisively that regression happens.

Betting on it coming against a team like Villanova is tricky. It feels like there's a flashing green light, given the amount of bricks Maryland tossed up in Villanova's last game. But even if the Red Raiders start hitting shots, Villanova might answer with a 3-point barrage of its own.

Unless the Tech shooting regression is a tidal wave, Villanova should have enough advantages elsewhere to overcome it. The Wildcats' size advantage in the backcourt plays perfect for an offense that loves to invert with its guards in the post and its bigs spotting up to shoot.

Pick: Villanova -152

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By Sean Paul

The Battle 4 Atlantis is regularly one of the best Feast Week events — outside of the Maui Invitational. The field in Nassau, Bahamas, provides no shortage of firepower, and that starts with Michigan vs. Memphis on Wednesday.

Memphis fans probably aren't accustomed to seeing truly elite offenses in the Penny Hardaway era. That’s the one area where Memphis disappoints in the biggest moments.

In a small sample this season, though, Memphis looks lethal on offense.

In three games, Memphis sits 33rd in Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom, and 38th in Defensive Efficiency. While efficiency numbers aren't the end-all-be-all, those numbers display a level of consistency from Memphis on both ends.

Moreover, Coach Hardaway's portal mindset was to bring in offensively-skilled, experienced players. So far, it’s worked out. Memphis is 3-0 with three double-digit point margins in all three games.

The Tigers' biggest challenge came against Missouri. Mizzou had Memphis on the ropes in the first 20 minutes, until Memphis' offense found its footing and changed the game.

The trio of David Jones, Jahvon Quinerly and Jaykwon Walton is carrying the Tigers' potent offense. That trio accounts for 43 of Memphis’ 85 total points.

The aspect that makes the Tigers so dangerous? All three are capable shot-creators but also can score in offensive flow. It’s not always coming in hero-ball spots.

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Michigan looked terrific over the season’s first three games, with convincing wins over UNC Asheville, Youngstown State and St. John’s.

But the Michigan excitement came to a pause when Long Beach State stunned the Wolverines in Ann Arbor on Friday. The defense allowed the Beach to score 94 points in the loss.

Still, head coach Juwan Howard is out while recovering for surgery over the offseason. In Howard’s absence, Phil Martelli is holding down the fort in the best way imaginable.

Guard Dug McDaniel’s ascent into college basketball stardom is one of the sport’s biggest headlines. McDaniel is the straw that stirs the drink for the Wolverines' offense, averaging over 20 points and six assists per game.

Between McDaniel and forward Olivier Nkamhoua, Michigan offers plenty of offensive pop. It’s always good when a team can beat you inside and out, and that’s what Michigan does.

I also have no clue where Michigan scores aside from McDaniel and Nkamhoua. You don't "need" another scoring threat like McDaniel and Nkamhoua, but which of Nimari Burnett, Terrance Williams II and Will Tschetter step up in big moments?

Burnett did against St John's, and Williams did so against Asheville. Which will be the third guy against Memphis? That's my only Michigan offensive issue.

The biggest concern, though, is defense. Simply accounting for losing Hunter Dickinson improves the offense a bit, but allowing 94 points to Long Beach is discouraging.

Michigan’s defense faces a difficult test against the strong offense of Memphis.

As the Wolverines' defense struggles, it’s a tough time to play Memphis. The Tigers' length and shooting ability could completely dominate the Wolverines' defense, which already struggles to stop dribble penetration.

Both teams boast plenty of wing and perimeter length, so neither team has an advantage there. The only noted difference is Memphis is significantly more skilled and athletic in the wing spots than Michigan.

Sorry to reference the Long Beach loss again, Michigan fans, but this must be said: Long Beach hunted out Williams' defense, which clearly worked.

So, I think Memphis may look to follow a similar blueprint. That skill differential becomes notable.

Pick: Memphis -1

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By Sean Paul

The Battle 4 Atlantis tips off on Wednesday with a duel between two teams that want to pick up significant wins.

Stanford needs an NCAA tournament-resume victory, while Arkansas needs to prove its loss to UNC Greensboro last week was nothing more than pre-Feast Week struggles.

In a similar vein, Stanford's surprising loss to Santa Clara put Jerod Haase's team on the microscope, before it cruised against Eastern Washington to ease the detractors for a few days. Now the Cardinal face the biggest test they'll see during the non-conference slate.

I mentioned prior to the season how important Jared Bynum’s addition was for Stanford. He’s completely lived up to all expectations as a playmaker so far, tallying seven or more assists in all four games.

However, his scoring efficiency is unimpressive — shooting 35% from the field and 20% from 3. Bynum’s shot-selection issues plagued him in the past, and it’s flashing again.

Also, Stanford is still searching for its No. 1 scoring option. In the big moments, it seems as if freshman Andrej Stojakovic is taking the crunch-time shots. However, that's probably not the best winning formula.

7-footer Maxime Raynaud should be taking those looks. Raynaud is averaging 19.3 points and nine rebounds in four games. You can draw a line between Raynaud's improvement and Bynum's arrival to Palo Alto.

Stanford is different than it’s been recently, though. Even when the Cards' offense struggled, you could rely on the defense to show up. That’s simply not the case in 2023-24.

Stanford ranks 260th in Torvik’s Defensive Efficiency when preseason numbers get removed. That's not just bad defense, it's terrible defense for the power-conference level.

It won't get any easier against the dangerous Razorbacks.

Arkansas losing as a double-digit favorite to UNC Greensboro is one of the season’s most surprising results to date. Not even the craziest of college basketball diehards saw that result coming. Trust me, I'm a die-hard, and I was stunned.

When diving deeper into the game profile, it’s easy to spot why Arkansas fell short against the Spartans. The Razorbacks shot 4-of-23 from downtown. Also, Arkansas simply couldn’t stop UNCG from driving to the basket. That’s a poor formula for winning games, regardless of the opponent.

It’s not a real surprise, as Trevon Brazile is the only true rim-protecting presence in Arkansas’ starting lineup. The other starters provide more offensive skills than defensive intensity.

Plus, Eric Musselman-coached teams typically take time to get up to speed, given the vast roster changes.

Arkansas will struggle when Devo Davis and Khalif Battle's perimeter shots don't fall. That probably won't happen too often.

Plus, UNC Greensboro hangs its hat on defense under head coach Mike Jones. That clearly impacted Arkansas' ability to string together consecutive strong possessions.

I could see Stanford rounding into form eventually, but right now, Arkansas is significantly more talented and athletic.

Following a disappointing loss, Arkansas feels highly underrated. We're talking about the same squad many people tabbed as a top contender in the SEC. None of that disappeared after one tough game.

The market feels low on Arkansas right now, so buy stock before it's too late.

Pick: Arkansas -5.5 (Play to 6.5)

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