NCAAB Odds, Pick for Butler vs Creighton

The Creighton Blue Jays host the Butler Bulldogs on Friday night in an intriguing Big East matchup. The Blue Jays have won three straight since dropping a game at UConn two weeks ago. Butler, meanwhile, has struggled immensely on the road. The Bulldogs have one road win at Marquette and their other road victory was at Georgetown, a team that is clearly rebuilding.

The Blue Jays should overwhelm the Bulldogs from 3 and inside. Creighton’s defense should limit Butler’s attack en route to a double-digit victory.

Butler has a relatively balanced approach on offense, but Creighton will limit the Bulldogs inside. Butler is shooting around 52% on 2s this season and tends to take more 2s than 3s. But the Blue Jays are holding opponents to 44.1% from inside the arc, which can be attributed to Ryan Kalkbrenner at the rim. Butler ranks 102nd in points per possession at the rim, per Shot Quality, while Creighton ranks third defensively in the same metric, so empty trips could be aplenty for the Bulldogs.

Butler may also have trouble getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs do not draw fouls too often, and the Blue Jays rank first in defensive free-throw attempt rate.

The Bulldogs' main issue this season has been size. Luckily for Butler, Creighton only crashes the glass defensively for the most part. The Bulldogs struggle at rebounding on both ends of the floor, so put-back attempts will not come easy.

Creighton ranks fifth in 3-point attempt rate and hits nearly 36% of those shots. The Blue Jays also hold opponents to the second-lowest 3-point attempt rate defensively. This should make for a significant edge from beyond the arc.

Butler only allows opponents to shoot 31.4% from deep, but the Bulldogs rank 263rd in allowed 3-point attempt rate. Creighton can shoot both off the dribble and in catch-and-shoot situations. Look for the Baylor Scheierman, Mason Miller and Francisco Farabello to do some damage from outside, as all three are hitting at least 37.5% from 3-point land.

Creighton should also be able to work whatever shots it pleases inside the arc considering Butler ranks 247th in defensive points per possession at the rim, per Shot Quality, while the Blue Jays rank 16th offensively in the same metric. Creighton will have the size advantage in this one, so Kalkbrenner should have a big game inside.

Finally, Creighton uses screens often to generate offense. Butler is abysmal on the defensive end on off-screen plays, so the Blue Jays’ offensive scheme could throw off the Bulldogs.

A high-functioning offense inside and out for the Blue Jays might lead to a large lead early. Look for Creighton to continue to build on that lead from 3-point land and with Kalkbrenner inside.

Butler is not a bad team, but its defense and rebounding will not be able to keep up with Creighton in Omaha. The Bulldogs simply don't have the offensive firepower to overcome a good defensive team in the Blue Jays. Take Creighton at -9.5 and play that line to -11.

Pick: Creighton -9.5 (Play to -11)