We know all eyes are on championship Saturday in college football.
But we also have a loaded college basketball slate for you, and there's betting value to be had in the sport.
Read below for college basketball best bets, including three NCAAB picks and predictions for Saturday, December 6.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Duke vs. Michigan State Pick
A 67% Bet Labs trend shows Saturday's location for No. 4 Duke vs. No. 7 Michigan State may be extremely pivotal to the outcome.
If you're unlocking any insight for the college basketball season, this one is a golden goose. I've covered the angle extensively this season already, because I genuinely believe it's one of the neatest trends, including a filter that bettors would never guess to account for.
The system is 11-5 (69%) this year and 342-179-3 lifetime.
Saturday's innovative way to bet on the Blue Devils vs. Spartans, using a data-fueled betting pattern, is the Under.
The "Stadium Unders" angle, crafted by Action's Director of Research Evan Abrams, is active.
The model finds that Michigan State's home court (Jack Breslin Events Student Center) is one of several around the country producing Unders at a steady clip.
Here's how the trend works: If the home team went Under in their last game and they return to a "Stadium Unders" venue, the Under has hit 67% of the time.
The theory is that teams off a low-scoring game likely won't get back on track in a Stadium Unders setup, for whatever reason — lighting, rim stiffness, backdrops, et cetera. Not all courts are built equal.
Michigan State went under the total in its last game, and now it is back at an Under venue.
Check out all of Alex's PRO projections for Saturday's college basketball slate here:
Pick: Under 136 or Better
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Louisville vs. Indiana Pick
It's a big weekend for Indiana fans in Indianapolis, with this game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse and the Big Ten Championship for football over at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Even though it's technically a neutral site and Louisville isn't far from Indy, I still expect an Indiana-heavy crowd.
Darian DeVries has done an excellent job with his group. While Indiana is a good team, I think Louisville is on a different level in terms of talent.
The Hoosiers have struggled to score in three of their last five games (a 73-53 home win over Lindenwood and a 69-61 home win over Incarnate Word are two examples), and I expect them to have trouble keeping pace with Louisville.
Indiana has limited opponents' 3-point attempts well, ranking 15th nationally in 3-point attempt rate allowed.
Still, I don't think that will translate against a Louisville team that forces a ton of 3s by design.
I don't see Indiana keeping pace offensively against a more athletic, more talented Louisville team.
Check out Christian's full Louisville-Indiana breakdown here:
Pick: Louisville -6 or Better
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Seton Hall vs. Kansas State Pick
Our projection-based totals have been crushing.
This week, over/unders with a difference of three or more points between my forecasts and the market have gone 27-18. On the season, over/unders with a big enough projection delta have gone 172-147, a 54% hit rate. Although if you remove Feast Week, which I believe had some weird neutral-court variance, projection-based over/unders are 143-108 on the season, a 57% win rate.
So, I hunted through my projections for this 105-game slate Saturday, and found my favorite total.
Shaheen Halloway always coaches up gritty, switchable defenses, but he’s always lagged in the offensive scheming department, heading back to his days in the MAAC.
However, this year’s team is vastly improved on the offensive end.
Merrimack transfer point guard Budd Clark has proven to be a legitimate distributor at the high-major level, dishing out six assists per game at a 38% rate. Meanwhile, he has three legit shooters to spray the ball to on the perimeter in AJ Staton-McCray (44% from 3), Mike Williams (41%), and Tajuan Simpkins (52%).
The Pirates run a lot of off-ball motion actions to get these shooters into open space, and then they’ll attack in isolation.
That’s a weakness of the Kansas State defense: the Wildcats allow a .97 PPP in isolation defense (15th percentile).
However, I don’t trust the Wildcat defense in general. While Jerome Tang typically coaches up good stop units, this year’s squad is getting wrecked on the interior, allowing opponents to shoot 57% from inside the arc (314th nationally) en route to 35 paint points per game (28th percentile).
That’s perfect for a Seton Hall team that can shoot but prefers to score inside the arc (327th nationally in 3-point rate).
On the other end of the court, Kansas State boasts a very dangerous offense led by potential All-American guard PJ Haggerty, who averages 25 points per game. Haggerty is a ball-screen-centric scorer, and he should get his against Seton Hall’s surprisingly average ball-screen coverage (.85 PPP allowed, 58th percentile).
While Seton Hall’s potential pace is worrisome (334th nationally in adjusted tempo), the Pirates force tons of turnovers (24%, fourth nationally), which could lead to plenty of run-out transition buckets, given Haggerty and Co. are prone to coughing the ball up.
If the Pirates run, the Wildcats will happily run with them (34th nationally in adjusted tempo). Between Haggerty, a poor defense, and a fast pace, Kansas State is 6-2 to the Over this season, including 5-1 at the Octogon of Doom.
I project 149.4 points for this matchup, so I’d play the Over at 146 or better.
Check out all of Tanner's CBB projections for Saturday's slate here.
Pick: Over 146 or Better
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Illinois vs. Tennessee Pick
By Sean Paul
I'm backing the Vols at -4.5 or better. It's the perfect spot to get back on the Vols' train.
Sure, Syracuse beat them, but that's a very hungry and tough Orange squad that nearly beat Houston in Vegas.
The same applies to Tennessee's loss to Kansas. The Jayhawks are another team that can match the Vols' physicality.
Illinois isn't a team that can handle a 40-minute wrestling match with Tennessee.
Unless the Illini have an outlier shooting night, this is the Vols game to lose.
Pick: Tennessee -4.5 or Better
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