NCAAB Best Bets: Tuesday’s Conference Tournament Picks
David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Texas State’s Dylan Dawson.
While college basketball conference tournament season technically started yesterday, we're now getting into the swing of it.
Instead of just one tournament playing games today, we have four: the ASUN, Patriot League, Horizon League and Sun Belt. That means the postseason is officially here.
Our college basketball writers came through with one best bet for each conference tournament in action, so we have picks for IUPUI vs. Cleveland State (Horizon), Loyola (MD) vs. Navy (Patriot), Old Dominion vs. Texas State (Sun Belt) and North Florida vs. Austin Peay (ASUN).
Check out all four best bets for today's college basketball conference tournament action below.
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College Basketball Conference Tournament Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's NCAAB conference tournament games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:30 p.m. | ||
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 8 p.m. ET | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Horizon: IUPUI vs. Cleveland State
By Matt Cox
IUPUI was the supposed dark horse in the Horizon when the season commenced back in November. Head coach Matt Crenshaw saw momentum down the stretch last season, which he hoped to parlay in a pivotal third campaign in Naptown.
Per KenPom, the Jaguars’ 52.3% of minutes continuity from last year to this year ranks in the top 100 of college basketball — yet, it hasn’t translated to the win column.
IUPUI managed to scrape out just two league wins this year. However, akin to last year, the Jags are refusing to wave the white flag.
Don’t look now, but Crenshaw’s crew has covered three straight games heading into the Horizon League Tournament, a loose rerun of last year’s story arc.
They face a Cleveland State team that they’ve played within single digits twice already this season, as IUPUI lost both games by nine points. The scout and preparation should be fresh in the Jags’ mind having just played the Vikings on Saturday, too.
Finally, Crenshaw is 2-0 against the spread in his only two Horizon League Tournament appearances (both first-round defeats). No model would operate on a sample size of two games, but the last two years are an encouraging precedent that the Jags should show some fight tonight on the road.
Pick: IUPUI +16.5 (Play to +15)
Patriot: Loyola Maryland vs. Navy
By Sean Paul
The Patriot League Tournament tips off on Tuesday, and we’ll take a peek at two of the worst teams in the conference — the Loyola (MD) Greyhounds and the Navy Midshipmen.
You can’t find a weirder streak than Navy had during Patriot League play. The Mids won the final four regular-season conference games after losing the previous nine conference meetings. Was the nine-game losing streak just some poor luck, or is the four-game winning streak the mirage?
Loyola mustered only seven wins overall with five wins in Patriot League play. Navy went over a month from the end of January to the end of February without winning a single game. Compared to Loyola, finishing the season with 12 wins looks pretty solid.
I lean toward Navy here, but I'm aiming for the total.
From a matchup perspective, I like the Greyhounds' attack against Navy’s defense, which allows plenty of perimeter jumpers (41% of field goals come from 3). Guards Deon Perry and D'Angelo Stines love shooting it from 3 and can exploit this Navy defense.
The issue? Perry missed the last two games with an injury, and Stines missed the last five games. If Stines remains out, Tyson Commander should step into a bigger role and make plays.
Perry is the key here. If he's playing, Loyola should help ramp up the scoring to reach the total. Perry is a small guard who’s wired to score, averaging over 17.8 points per game. He’s the engine for Loyola’s offense.
The team’s lone double-digit scorer, Perry scored 30 points against Navy in Loyola's win earlier this season.
On the other end, all-conference selection Austin Benigni is terrific at reaching the free-throw line for Navy. The 5-foot-10 guard attempts over 6.5 free throws per game, which helps him average over 16.5 points per game.
The ideal source of offense for Navy stems from scoring off turnovers. The Mids force turnovers on 20% of defensive possessions, while Loyola turns it over a ridiculous amount.
Navy doesn't have a very efficient offense, posting a 44% effective field goal percentage (355th nationally.) So, getting extra shots at the free-throw line from Bengini and Donovan Draper could make a huge offensive difference.
The first meeting between Loyola (MD) and Navy reached 144 total points, while the other fell to 131. With the total being 132 total points, I think we'll see an over here.
The Greyhounds regularly play games in the high 60-70 point range, and Navy should get right near the 70 range.
Pick: Over 132 or Better
Sun Belt: Old Dominion vs. Texas State
By Jim Root
Old Dominion has been in a difficult rut ever since heading to Hawaii for the Diamond Head Classic just before Christmas.
The Monarchs’ head coach, Jeff Jones, had a heart attack before ODU could debut on the island, forcing assistant coach Kieran Donohue to abruptly ascend to the big chair. Jones has since retired, largely due to those health-related issues.
The Monarchs’ season felt lost at that point. Perhaps understandably, ODU is just 7-22-1 (24.1%) against the spread this year, the second-worst mark in the entire country.
Things went from bad to worse in late January, when Donohue dismissed leading scorer Vasean Allette. Any “addition by subtraction” never came; ODU went 1-7 ATS in its final eight regular-season games.
With the “fresh start” that the conference tournament brings, can Old Dominion hit the reset button? Against a frustrating half-court foe like Texas State, I'm not optimistic.
Surprisingly for league opponents, this is the first meeting between the two this season. But in last year’s Sun Belt Tournament, Texas State dismantled ODU, 65-36. The Monarchs never had a chance.
The favored Bobcats’ biggest strength is their defensive shell, forcing teams to execute to get good looks. Old Dominion is not an execution-based team, instead getting stuck in isolation at the 14th-highest rate nationally, per Synergy.
Unless ODU’s difficult shots are going in, the Monarchs will struggle mightily to score.
It may not be as big a blowout as last year, but I expect Texas State to win comfortably again in the Sun Belt Tournament.
Pick: Texas St. -3.5 (Play to -5)
ASUN: North Florida vs. Austin Peay
By Ky McKeon
Austin Peay and North Florida met just this season in a thrilling double-overtime game that ended in a four-point win for the Govs. Peay led by as many as 16 in that one, and UNF didn’t hold a lead until the first overtime period.
But there was one very key player missing from the APSU lineup: DeMarcus Sharp.
Sharp is arguably the best individual scorer in the ASUN. He’s a one-man wrecking machine on offense and one of the most dangerous isolation players in the country.
His teammate, Dezi Jones, has been nearly as potent this season, and third starter Ja’Monta Black has hit over 350 3s in his career. Together, with freshman Dez White, Austin Peay has the most dynamic, individually talented backcourt in the conference.
That’s an extremely powerful weapon in a loser-go-home tournament setting.
UNF cannot stay in front of defenders on the perimeter, and it will likely throw some zone at the Govs to try and slow them down. Whichever look the Ospreys prefer, it will do little to stop the Peay guard firepower.
Austin Peay big man Sai Witt has also turned into a juggernaut down low, and he destroyed UNF in Game 1 for 30 points on 12-of-16 shooting. UNF has a little rim protection, but it isn’t enough to stop Witt.
Defensively, APSU does the one thing any team needs to do against UNF: take away the 3. The Ospreys take 55% of their shots from deep, by far the highest rate in the country. They are feast or famine, live or die by the 3, and Peay head coach Corey Gipson knows it.
Shut off the water to the 3-ball, and UNF can't win. Peay ranks third in the ASUN in 3-point attempt rate allowed, per KenPom, and in the 77th percentile nationally in defending spot-ups, per Synergy.
Athletic, quick guards make getting clean looks on the perimeter a challenge for opposing teams.
The ASUN is impossible to predict, but Peay’s athleticism and individual talent should win out in this matchup. Being at home doesn’t hurt either.
Pick: Austin Peay -3.5 (Play to -4)
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