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College Basketball Best Bets: Three Man Weave’s 3 Top Picks for Monday

College Basketball Best Bets: Three Man Weave’s 3 Top Picks for Monday article feature image
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Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images. Pictured: John Hugley (Pittsburgh)

After another wild weekend of college basketball, Monday’s slate gives us plenty of storylines and intrigue.

It all starts with Kansas vs. Texas and Arizona going on the road to take on Arizona State, but Jim Root from Three Man Weave has spotlighted three other games to keep an eye on from a betting perspective.

Below are his three best bets for Monday’s schedule in college hoops.


Monday’s College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game
Time
Pick
7 p.m. ET
Under 129.5
9 p.m. ET
Under 153
9 p.m. ET
Montana -1.5
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Pitt vs. Virginia Tech

Monday, Feb. 7
7 p.m. ET
ACCN
Under 129.5

These two teams just played on Saturday, and that game had 147 points. Why in the world would I take the under on a total 18 points lower than that? Have I finally become unhinged?

While I cannot verify my sanity with any level of certainty, I can at least justify myself on this wager. Just 48 hours ago, this matchup closed with a total of 126.5. The new total is three points higher. Did the first game really justify such a move?

In my eyes, not at all. The Panthers and Hokies combined to shoot a ludicrous 23-of-44 from beyond the arc (52.3%). Correct that down to 15-of-44, or 34% (a hair above the national average), and suddenly the first game had 123 points.

Of course, Virginia Tech is well above the national average. The Hokies are currently shooting 41.8% from deep (2nd nationally). They are 40-for-71 (56.3%) from beyond the arc over their last three contests.

If they continue that volcanic streak, this bet will lose.

I believe in regression, though, and Pitt almost certainly will not shoot 50% itself. Both teams play incredibly slowly, and this one could land below the KenPom projection of 62 possessions.

An important note: this line opened 131 at some offshore books and was quickly bet down more than a point. The market clearly agrees with me; whether it’s for the same reasons or not is unclear.

Regardless, value remains, so long as the almighty regression monster is on our side.

Pick: Under 129.5 (Play to 127)



SEMO vs. SIUE

Monday, Feb. 7
9 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Under 153

While the first under justification centered around the number and shooting regression, this one is more about tempo and personnel.

The vital injury to note here is SIUE’s Ray’Sean Taylor, who will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Taylor was the Cougars’ leading scorer and a microwave-type player who could get scorching hot for stretches.

He also tended to gamble defensively, leading to easy transition opportunities for SIUE — or layups for the opponent.

His on/off numbers show how impactful he is for the total (numbers per Hoop-Explorer):

Lineup Offensive Poss. Adj Offensive Per 100 Defensive Poss. Adj Defensive Per 100 Net Rating
Taylor on court 1039 99.2 1022 107.2 -8.0
Taylor off court 368 87.4 382 97.4 -10.0

Overall, the team is not that much worse, but the offense drops off of a cliff and the defense becomes competent. Unsurprisingly, both of SIUE’s games without him this past week went under the total.

To add to the value created by Taylor’s absence, both SIUE and SEMO have been playing slower as of late. The visiting Redhawks in particular have hit the brakes.

From mid-December to mid-January, SEMO was one of the best over teams in the country. It ran with reckless abandon, and the defense had all the resistance of a sheet of paper.

Lately, though, the Redhawks have slowed down, with their last two games having fewer than 70 possessions — the first time that has happened since December 15th.

SIUE has also played two of its slowest games since November recently. Likely another symptom of Taylor’s absence, that only adds to the edge here.

The total of 153 indicates shootout, and while this may not be a 130-point crawl, that’s too lofty a number without Taylor.

Pick: Under 153 (Play to 150)



Southern Utah vs. Montana

Monday, Feb. 7
9 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Montana -1.5

Finally, not an under! A side, a glorious side!

A vital part of this handicap is looking back at last season. In early December of 2020, a young Montana team went to Southern Utah and won two 39-minute contests over the far more veteran Thunderbirds.

Unfortunately, college basketball games are actually 40 minutes long.

The Grizzlies blew both games in excruciating fashion, losing by a single point twice in three days. Surely, this year’s team — which is basically an identical roster, but with 14 months of added experience — remembers that road heartbreak.

Now back in Missoula, it’s hard to imagine a more motivated team. Montana is also coming off of an appalling 26-point loss to dismal Idaho State. It’s entirely possible the Grizzlies were looking ahead to this major revenge opportunity, and I firmly believe they will be mega-dialed in to earn a crucial victory.

Matchup-wise, Montana retains the same advantages that helped it build a lead twice at SUU.

The Grizzlies make it difficult to score from beyond the arc, a key part of the SUU offense.

On the other end, Montana’s talented backcourt almost never turns the ball over, which should limit the visiting Thunderbirds’ deadly transition offense.

A final key: Montana is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the entire country. That has helped it tally a 6-2 ATS record as a home favorite, and it should come in handy again here in what could be a close game.

Pick: Montana -1.5 (Play to -3)



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