College Basketball Mid-Major Odds & Picks: Keg’s Bottom of the Barrel Bets (Saturday, March 5)
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- For the last Saturday of the regular season, Keg is back with his top mid-major bets from the bottom of the barrel.
- His picks for Saturday include Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Incarnate Word and Dixie State vs. Grand Canyon.
- Check out Keg's top three mid-major bets for Saturday's college hoops slate below.
Bottom of the Barrel Picks for Saturday, March 5
It’s the last weekend of the regular season, and while it’s been a tough season of betting for me personally, it’s been a great year of college basketball to watch and keep up with.
Quite a few teams still have games to go before the end of the regular season, some meaning more than others. Here are a few teams that I think can end their seasons with a bang on Saturday.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Incarnate Word
One of my favorite teams in the low-majors this year has been the Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders.
Sure, they’ve got a half-creepy/half-cool mascot and a great color scheme, but it’s more than that. The Islanders are a good basketball team.
A&M CC is a top-100 scoring team, ranks second in free throw attempts and makes, and is the eighth-best offensive rebounding team in all of college basketball. When they hosted Incarnate Ward earlier this season, the Islanders won, 80-64, covering the spread as a 15-point favorite.
Speaking of spreads, the Islanders are also one of the best covering teams in the country when it comes to games on the road at 10-2 ATS. The only team better has been TCU.
I think A&M CC continues that trend and ends its season on a high note before the Southland Tournament. I would take the Islanders as high as an 8-point favorite.
Pick: Texas A&M Corpus Christi -8 or better
Mississippi Valley State vs. Jackson State
What if I told you one of the worst teams in the country was profitable? The Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils might be 355th out of 358 teams in the KenPom rankings, but they are 15-12 ATS this season.
MVSU will square off against Jackson State on Saturday for its last game of the season.
Jackson State is 5-2 in homes games this season but is just 3-5 ATS at home. The Tigers did beat MVSU earlier this year on the road, 69-65. However, it failed to cover the 8.5-point spread, and Terence Lewis’ 28 points were a major factor in the win.
Lewis averages just 8.5 points per game on the season, and I don’t think his performance from the first game will be replicated.
Jackson State has been considerably better than MVSU throughout the year. Almost every team in college basketball has. But as of late, the Delta Devils are playing better, while the Tigers have fallen into a slump to end the season.
Both sides have averaged right around 70 points per game in their last three, while MVSU is giving up just seven more points per contest on defense.
The Devils managed to keep it close against the leader in the conference, Alcorn State, in their last game, and that’s exactly what I think they do here. I’ll be backing the Delta Devils at +10 or better.
Pick: Mississippi Valley State +10 or better
Dixie State vs. Grand Canyon
Our Antelopes will look to end the season on a four-game win streak Saturday night when they square off against Dixie State. The Trailblazers are just 6-11 in conference play and rank 10th out of 13 teams in the WAC.
They come into this game with a streak of their own as well, having lost their last three games. However, one of their six conference wins came against the Antelopes when they hosted them back on Feb 12. Dixie pulled off the upset at home, winning 61-60 as an 8-point underdog.
Grand Canyon has been dominant at home all season, posting a record of 14-2 while also going 9-5 ATS. But it’s been even more impressive on this three-game win streak, averaging 73.3 points per game and holding teams to just 54.
This also hasn’t been against the bottom three teams in the league. Grand Canyon has done this against Utah Valley and Sam Houston, which sandwich the Antelopes at fifth in the WAC standings.
Expect the GCU Havocs to be loud and proud — as always — in the final home game of the regular season. The Antelopes should give them plenty to cheer for and cover the number while doing it.
I’ll back Grand Canyon as high as a 14-point favorite.
Pick: Grand Canyon -14 or better
Bottom-of-the-Barrel Beverage Recommendation
My drink of choice this weekend is Eagle Rare, one of the better bourbons that I feel can get overlooked from time to time.
Eagle Rare is made by Buffalo Trace Distillery and aged at least 10 years. It features a noticeable chocolate flavor. If you’re a fan of red wine, dark chocolate or any other semi-sweet dessert, you’ll be a fan of this bourbon.
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