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College Basketball Odds & Picks: Three Man Weave’s 3 Best Bets for Wednesday, Including Miami vs. Louisville

College Basketball Odds & Picks: Three Man Weave’s 3 Best Bets for Wednesday, Including Miami vs. Louisville article feature image
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Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Walker (Miami)

How can we top a wild Tuesday in college basketball that featured a thrilling top-10 showdown in the Big East, Texas winning on the road in overtime against Oklahoma and a South Carolina half-court buzzer beater to beat Ole Miss?

Well, how about No. 7 Baylor vs. No. 11 Texas Tech in Lubbock?

While that Big 12 affair will take center stage, Ky McKeon of Three Man Weave has three games he’s eyeing on Tuesday from a betting perspective.

Baylor-Texas Tech may be the best game of the day, but these three matchups offer you the best value as a bettor.

Ky’s three best bets are below.


Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game
Time
Pick
6:30 p.m. ET
St. John’s +8.5
7 p.m. ET
Under 142.5
7 p.m. ET
Miami (FL) -1.5
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

St. John’s vs. Xavier

Wednesday, Feb. 16
6:30 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
St. John’s +8.5

Let’s address the elephant in the room right away: Posh Alexander’s status. Alexander is St. John’s point guard and second-leading scorer. He’s missed the last two games due to an ankle injury.

How have the Johnnies fared in those two games? Not bad, actually. St. John’s came back from down 20 to push the six-point spread against Villanova, and then covered against UConn in a close three-point game.

The Johnnies even led the Huskies by seven with under eight minutes to play.

Former Vermont transfer Stef Smith has stepped up admirably in Alexander’s absence. He’s a poised ball handler and experienced player, as is backup guard Montez Mathis. And sophomore Dylan Addae-Wusu is a burgeoning talent in his own right.

The point is, St. John’s has plenty of backcourt pieces if Alexander can’t go again.

St. John’s also has the best player on the floor tonight in Julian Champagnie, a do-everything wing who is sure to give the Musketeers some headaches. Champagnie averaged 17 points per game last season against Xavier.

Despite perception, St. John’s has been solid on the road this season. The Red Storm have three outright Big East road wins (Seton Hall, Georgetown and Butler), nearly had a fourth when they took UConn to overtime and almost upset Indiana in Assembly Hall back in November.

A trip to the Cintas Center shouldn’t faze them.

Xavier was a juggernaut at home early in the season, but that advantage has faded. DePaul of all teams took down the Musketeers in Cincinnati just 11 days ago.

Xavier’s late-season slide is following a pattern we’ve seen under Travis Steele the past couple of years. Though the Muskies have covered their last two contests, they were just 1-7 against the spread in their previous eight games.

There are two more personnel angles to consider. Aaron Wheeler, a starting forward for St, John’s, and Nate Johnson, a starting wing for Xavier, are both banged up.

Wheeler is definitely key for the Johnnies (and his absence would amplify Alexander’s absence), but Johnson is arguably more important to Xavier. He’s the Muskies’ best shooter and a rock-solid defender.

Even with the potential absences, St. John’s is catching too many points. The Red Storm are too scrappy and too talented to be eight-point dogs tonight. Though they might start in a hole, expect a strong second-half effort and a cover from St. John’s.

Pick: St. John’s +8.5 (Play to +8)



Furman vs. Western Carolina

Wednesday, Feb. 16
7 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Under 142.5

Western Carolina played at a breakneck pace to start the season, but first-year head coach Justin Gray slammed on the brakes in mid-January.

After going 11-4 to the over in its first 15 contests, WCU is 9-2 to the under since. Eight of its last nine games have gone under the point total, and three straight have stayed below this mark set by oddsmakers.

Pace has been one factor, as Gray has clearly emphasized slowing things down. But efficiency has also played a part.

The Catamounts are the SoCon’s worst offensive team this season, scoring just 0.942 PPP in league play.

WCU’s style of play is the root cause of this lack of efficiency. The Catamounts shoot 3s at the second-highest rate in the country (nearly 53% of their shots come from deep), but they are hitting just 28% in league play and 31% overall.

In Game 1 against Furman, WCU shot 4-of-26 from deep. While that’s not typical, it’s not out of the ordinary for this feast-or-famine team. Furman, meanwhile, went 21-of-44 from 3, a ridiculous clip, and one that’s not repeatable. That game played just 68 possessions and easily stayed under the total.

Expect a lower-scoring affair in this game, as well. One of WCU’s best guards, Vonterius Woolbright, is likely still on the shelf, hurting WCU’s efficiency. And Furman boasts the SoCon’s best defense, a good stat for under bettors when playing the worst offensive team in the league.

If Furman shoots a normal percentage from deep tonight and WCU stays at its usual clip, the pace won’t be high enough to carry the point total over oddsmakers’ line.

Hold your breath and take the under.

Pick: Under 142.5 (Play to 141)



Miami vs. Louisville

Wednesday, Feb. 16
7 p.m. ET
ACC Network Extra
Miami (FL) -1.5

This game is a pretty basic handicap for me: fade the team that is currently a dumpster fire.

Louisville is a mess right now. Since Chris Mack departed on Jan. 26, Louisville has gone 1-3 ATS. Going back even further, Louisville is just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games.

The first game after Mack was fired was the game Duke came to town. It was a home-run spot for the Cardinals, and a chance for new coach Mike Pegues to show he was the man for the job.

Louisville played at maximum effort and turned in an admirable performance, and still lost by nine. The Cardinals then took North Carolina to OT prior to getting blown out by Syracuse.

Louisville covered last game against Notre Dame, but the Irish were missing a key player.

There are also roster questions for the Cardinals.

Malik Williams, Louisville’s leading scorer, rebounder and captain, was suspended by Pegues for two games for conduct and then played just six minutes when he returned against Notre Dame. Williams looked lethargic and disengaged.

Samuell Williamson, a key cog in the Louisville lineup was held out of that Notre Dame game due to a “coach’s decision.” That, plus the Williams situation, heavily implies there are locker room issues at Louisville. There’s a very good chance this team is broken beyond repair.

Miami, meanwhile, is fighting for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

The Canes are motivated and coming off of a giant road win over Wake Forest. Laying such a short number — even on the road — against a broken team is a gift from the gambling gods.

Pick: Miami (FL) -1.5 (Play to -2)

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