Monday NCAAB Odds, Best Bets: Three Man Weave’s 3 Picks, Including West Virginia vs. Baylor

Monday NCAAB Odds, Best Bets: Three Man Weave’s 3 Picks, Including West Virginia vs. Baylor article feature image
Credit:

Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Keyonte George (Baylor)

The NFL season officially concluded last night with the Kansas City Chiefs defeating the Philadelphia Eagles.

It's now college basketball's time to shine as we're a month away from Selection Sunday.

To kick off the first day without football, Jim Root of Three Man Weave has three best bets for Monday's college basketball slate, including West Virginia vs. Baylor.


Monday's Three Man Weave College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Jim is targeting from Monday's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game
Time
Pick
8 p.m. ET
Under 133
9 p.m. ET
Texas Southern +6.5
9 p.m. ET
Under 149.5
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Hartford vs. South Alabama

Monday, Feb. 13
8 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Under 133

By Jim Root

The strange slog through a transition season continues for Hartford.

The Hawks, destined for Division III after this season, have been on a strange odyssey as an independent. That has included some strange scheduling, such as heading to Mobile, Alabama, for a Monday evening tilt.

With only three games remaining in their season, the Hawks should be engaged despite the travel.

Parsing the motivations of South Alabama as it grinds through a Sun Belt slate is significantly harder.

That has been the case with almost every Hartford game since the calendar turned to 2023, though, and the Hawks are just 4-5 against the spread.

What does feel more certain is that the Jaguars will lack some urgency. South Alabama just beat Appalachian State on Saturday, and it has a matchup with league-leader Southern Miss on Thursday.

The Jaguars already have no bench — they rank 308th nationally in bench minutes — so taxing the players in a strange non-conference game makes little sense.

That should lead to a crawling tempo, and head coach Richie Riley has been willing to mix in zone defenses in the past. Those typically slow the pace.

For its part, Hartford is not exactly a tempo pusher. The Hawks rank 344th nationally in average possession length on offense. Four of the past five Hartford games have gone under the total, as have 11 of the past 16.

The biggest risk here is South Alabama scoring mega-efficiently. The Jaguars offense lacks explosiveness, though, and they lack prolific 3-point threats.

This has been bet down across the board, but I still see value due to the tempo and situation. I would bet this to under 131.

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Texas Southern vs. Southern

Monday, Feb. 13
9 p.m. ET
HBCU GO
Texas Southern +6.5

By Jim Root

Shout out to the SWAC for giving us something we can rely upon on Monday nights.

After a deluge of games over the weekend, most leagues wait until mid-week — but the SWAC is not most leagues.

This matchup is a battle of two of the top three squads from the preseason poll. The season has gone in decidedly different directions for each team, however.

Texas Southern, selected to win the league, is shockingly in 10th place, mired in the depths of a competitive conference.

Meanwhile, Southern has matched its expectations, sitting third behind Alcorn State and Grambling.

Context is key here. The Tigers have lost three conference games in overtime, demonstrating some brutal late luck.

Plus, injuries wrecked Texas Southern early in league play, with key starters PJ Henry and Joirdon Karl Nicholas each missing a chunk of games. The Tigers went 0-4 in games they both missed.

With both players back and getting healthier, Texas Southern is a buy-low candidate.

Notably, the Tigers took Southern to overtime on Jan. 2. That was without Henry, the team’s primary ball-handler. His absence was especially notable as TSU turned it over 17 times, struggling with Southern’s pressure throughout the contest.

That first meeting offers plenty of signs of encouragement for the rematch, though.

TSU took that game to the wire despite shooting 16.7% from deep and 51.5% from the free-throw line, both well below the Tigers’ (admittedly low) season averages. Most importantly, TSU dominated the paint, shooting 62.5% inside the arc to Southern’s 39.1%, and won the rebounding battle, 44-39.

With a full-strength roster, Texas Southern has a chance to exact revenge against the Jaguars.

Worst case, I believe the Tigers will keep it close once again.

Pick: Texas Southern +6.5 (Play to +5.5)


West Virginia vs. Baylor

Monday, Feb. 13
9 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Under 149.5

By Jim Root

I will start by acknowledging the elephant in the room here. According to KenPom’s adjusted efficiency ratings, Baylor has the best offense in the country. Betting unders in Bears games can be agonizing when their guards get hot from deep.

However, as painful as it may be, betting Baylor unders has also been profitable. Five of the last seven contests have stayed under the total despite that incendiary attack.

The biggest reason for that is pace.

Baylor has hit the brakes in league play, slowing its average offensive possession length from 17.6 seconds for the full year to 18.9 seconds in league play, per KenPom.

That 1.3-second gap equates to nearly a five-possession difference over the course of the game — more than enough to create betting value.

The other nauseating part of this bet is the likelihood of a free-throw parade. West Virginia is prone to foul fests on both ends of the floor, ranking eighth in offensive free-throw rate and 339th on the defensive end.

How the officials whistle this one will go a long way toward determining where the total lands.

The first meeting between these two displayed the risk of an under bet. After a pedestrian 60-point first half, end-of-game fouling led to 25 points in the final two minutes. That comes with the territory of betting unders, of course, but the pace of play through the first 58 minutes is more predictive.

As Baylor plays more in the half-court, unders hold value — even with its lethal offense. Though efficient scoring appears likely, the tempo will give this wager a strong chance of cashing.


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