Illinois vs Rutgers Odds, Pick for Saturday

The Illinois Fighting Illini travel to Piscataway, New Jersey in their first test in Big Ten Conference play against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Jersey Mike’s Arena (or colloquially still referred to as the RAC) is one of the toughest places to play in college basketball, let alone the Big Ten.

This game is a clash between arguably the two best defenses in the conference, and both reside in the top 13 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. The Illini are hoping Coleman Hawkins is available to play after a knee injury, which has held him out a few games now. Niccolo Moretti looks to be out again for Illinois.

Either way, the Illini have the depth and the size to substitute Hawkins’ production. Since Rutgers slows opponents down easily on defense and offense is not the strength of either squad, this game should go under the total.

Illinois’ offense runs through Terrence Shannon Jr. However, it sometimes relies a bit too heavily on him to bail out the offense.

He and Luke Goode are both shooting above 43% from outside, which is impressive. No one else on the team, though, is above 34%.

As a unit, the Illini are shooting an abysmal 31.4% from outside, while hoisting 3s 40.7% of the time. Rutgers allows a 3-point attempt rate of 40.1% and a 3-point rate of 30.1%, but this should not hurt the Scarlet Knights too much, unless Shannon or Goode finds an open look from outside.

Illinois thrives when it can drive the ball. The Illini rank 41st in the nation in points per possession at the rim, per Shot Quality, and they're shooting 57.3% on 2-pointers this season.

That said, Rutgers can defend inside, especially with Clifford Omoruyi, Gavin Griffiths and Aundre Hyatt. The Scarlet Knights are holding opponents to 37.7% on 2-pointers this year, while ranking 60th in points per possession at the rim defensively.

Adding onto that, Illinois rarely gets to the free throw line. It's shooting a putrid 57.1% from the strike, while maintaining a free throw attempt rate ranked 283rd in the country.

Rutgers sometimes has a tendency to foul (ranked 106th in free throw attempt rate defensively), but outside of Shannon, most of the Illini avoid contact.

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On the Rutgers side, the Scarlet Knights like to draw fouls. They rank 26th in the nation in free throw attempt rate on offense and manufacture 23.6% of their points from the line.

On the other hand, Illinois does not foul often. The Illini rank sixth in defensive free throw attempt rate, so this will negate one aspect of Rutgers’ more reliable scoring options.

Anyways, Rutgers is also only shooting 65.4% from the free throw line, so neither team is particularly efficient there.

The Knights are even worse on the offensive end than Illinois is. The Knights are only shooting a collective 28.7% from deep and 49.5% from inside the arc.

The Illini are holding teams to the best effective field goal percentage defensively in the country at 37.8%, per KenPom. Teams are only shooting 25.9% on the Illini from downtown and 37.3% from inside the perimeter.

The Illini also rank 25th in 3-point attempt rate defensively.

Finally, Illinois owns the sixth-best Rim & 3 Rate, per Shot Quality, so it will be difficult for the Knights to find good scoring opportunities.

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Both of these teams excel on the defensive end. Rutgers forces plenty of turnovers, but Illinois does not. Neither team is sharp at the free throw line, and no one, outside of Shannon truly stands out as a major offensive threat.

With that being the case, the under should be in play. This could turn into a rock fight quickly, and it could look pretty sloppy. Play this under to 132.5.

Pick: Under 135 (Play to 132.5)