College Basketball Odds, Pick for Iowa vs Indiana

Looking to put an end to their three-game losing streak, the stumbling Indiana Hoosiers return home against Iowa Hawkeyes on Tuesday.

The Hawkeyes haven't been much better, as they enter with a 4-5 record in the Big Ten. They do, however, enter as winners of their last game — a road clash with Michigan.

Can IU put aside its struggles in front of a raucous crowd at Assembly Hall, or will Iowa play spoiler in its second-straight road conference bout?

Fran McCaffery’s Hawkeyes are on the outside looking in when it comes to the NCAA tournament, and they have an important stretch coming up in the thick of conference play.

It starts with a winnable road game at the always-tough Assembly Hall.

Kris Murray has departed for professional endeavors, leaving McCaffery to find new answers on the offensive end. While he doesn’t have a primary shot taker, the trio of Ben Krikke, Tony Perkins and Payton Sandfort have picked up the slack. The trio averages a combined 45.4 points per game (53.2% of Iowa’s points).

Similar to last year, Iowa likes to run and gun on the offensive end. It doesn't turn the ball over — 10th in turnover rate — and looks to funnel the ball inside to its bigs like Krikke and Owen Freeman.

Being able to defend the rim is critical against the Hawkeyes. While they're a capable 3-point shooting team, they only attack from the perimeter on 30.6% of all attempts. Iowa doesn't draw fouls at a high rate, nor does it grab many second-chance opportunities.

Sandfort has been the team’s best shooter — 41.8% from 3 during Big Ten play — while Perkins ranks inside the top 10 in both steal and assist rate.

Defensively is where Iowa has problems. It's 195th in eFG% and gives up second-chance opportunities at an extremely high rate (222nd). That’s the McCaffery way. The Hawkeyes are a bit soft on the defensive end and look to win in high-scoring bouts.

It should be noted that Patrick McCaffery has slowly returned from injury and played 21 minutes on Saturday against Michigan. It seems as though he's nearing a full workload. While he’s struggled this season, he often provides a steady shot from the perimeter.

This is Mike Woodson’s worst squad in his three years in Bloomington, as the Hoosiers continue their spiral at the bottom of the Big Ten.

Indiana has lost three straight and four of its last five. Much of its struggles have gone hand in hand with big man Kel’el Ware, who's missed the last two games with an ankle injury. He's the team’s leading rebounder and is a deterrent at the rim.

Similar to Iowa, the Hoosiers like to push the pace a bit and attack the rim. They're 352nd in 3PA/FGA and rank 200th in 3-point% as a squad. They're top-five in average height yet, despite that, rarely create second-chance opportunities.

IU is physical and draws plenty of fouls, but it lacks everywhere else offensively. There’s only so much that Malik Reneau (16.7 PPG, 40.6 3p%) can do, especially without Ware helping.

Xavier Johnson has been a huge disappointment, while Trey Galloway has really struggled in his senior season. The latter of the two shot 46.2% from 3 last season, a number that's dropped to 28.4% in 2024.

All in all, it’s been a tough season for the Hoosiers, especially on the offensive end.

The one positive has been Indiana’s defense during Big Ten play. It's fifth in Defensive Efficiency in that span and ranks No. 1 defending the perimeter. That’s a huge plus considering Indiana allows over 40% of all field goals to come from the perimeter.

This is not a team that'll force turnovers, and if Ware misses Tuesday's game, the Hoosiers should continue to struggle when it comes to limiting second-chance opportunities. Illinois grabbed 14 offensive rebounds on Saturday in an eight-point win.

Home is where Indiana is best, as it's lost just two games at Assembly Hall, both of which came to top-10 teams.

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A trend that's quickly developed in the Big Ten this season has been the success of home teams. In the 63 Big Ten matchups against a conference foe this season, home teams are 36-25-2 ATS (59%). That's a 12.3% ROI.

While it's been an extremely small sample size, the Hoosiers are 3-1 ATS this season and 15-9 in their three years under Woodson. Assembly Hall is a tough place to play, and we've seen Indiana find much more success when it's in front of a home crowd.

That supports my belief that Indiana is undervalued on Tuesday. Iowa isn't a team that can out-physical the Hoosiers and create a variety of second-chance opportunities, nor will it light it up from the perimeter.

The Hawkeyes' defensive woes should be put on display against the likes of Reneau and Mackenzie Mgbako, as well as Ware if he suits up and gives it a go.

I'm waiting on the status of Ware before firing on the Hoosiers. He plays a critical role when it comes to protecting the rim, and that's a big loss when facing a team like Iowa that funnels the ball inside. If he gives it a go, play Indiana up to -2.

Woodson is "hopeful" that Ware returns this week. If he's not a go, I would be cautious, but I do still lean towards IU.

Editor's Note: Ware is expected to be available tonight vs. Iowa.

Pick: Indiana PK (if Kel'el Ware Plays) Play to -2 | Lean IU if Out