NCAAB Odds, Pick for Louisiana Tech vs Grand Canyon

It’s hard not to adore the Antelopes.

Led by Bryce Drew, Scott Drew’s brother, Grand Canyon keeps winning. The ‘Lopes are now 11-1 on the year and on an eight-game win streak that includes victories over San Diego State and Liberty.

The backcourt is electric, and Tyon Grant-Foster is pouring in 21 points per game off the wing.

All that said, I wouldn’t overlook Louisiana Tech. I think the Bulldogs are undervalued and due for a big bounce-back performance off consecutive losses, including an overtime one at Seattle.

The Bulldogs are an elite mid-major defense.

They defend ball screens. They’re great at the rim. They stop off-ball screens and cutters. Everyone defends in isolation.

They’re 10th nationally in 2-point defense (42.5%). Texas Tech transfer Daniel Batcho has been a revelation down low, blocking two shots per game and allowing just .62 post-up PPP (77th percentile).

I think Batcho could be among the Conference USA’s best all-around players. He’s scoring efficiently, rebounding like crazy and, as mentioned, stopping everything.

The best thing about Batcho is that he allows Tevin Hester to run an elite, Scott Drew-like no-middle defense. The no-middle forces opposing ball-handlers to the sideline and baseline, rather than the middle, and brings help early and often from the baseline defender – in this case, Batcho.

The goal is to use the sideline and baseline as an extra defender while keeping opposing offenses out of the paint. It generally results in either awkward baseline jumpers or dangerous skip passes.

When run correctly, it’s hard to beat the no-middle because you can’t get to the rim. The Bulldogs allow only nine at-the-rim field goal attempts per game, fewest nationally.

Drew rode that scheme to a championship at Baylor. I don’t have the same aspirations for Louisiana Tech, but I'm a fan of the defense nonetheless.

The problem is offensively, where the Bulldogs can’t get any guard production from Sean Newman Jr. or Tahlik Chavez. The duo is averaging just two assists per game and 2.7 turnovers. The Bulldogs can’t dribble penetrate.

Batcho and Isaiah Crawford salvage the half-court offense by crashing the offensive boards. Still, I don’t love an offense predicated on second-chance points, especially when the Bulldogs often fail to get shots up (216th nationally in turnover rate).

It’s worth mentioning that La Tech is 7-0 at home but only 2-4 on the road.

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Grant-Foster and Rayshon Harrison are two elite playmakers in ball-screen and isolation sets. Behind those two, the Antelopes crash the rim at will, generating 22 at-the-rim field goal attempts per game while ranking third in free-throw rate (50%).

The Antelopes have wing size and talent in droves, driving mid-major defenses insane.

They could be a tad more efficient at the rim, but they generate high-efficiency interior looks nonetheless. I think that’ll hold up in the long run.

Defensively, the ‘Lopes ice screens and play drop coverage with 6-foot-10 big man Duke Brennan. There’s been a drop coverage revolution in college basketball, as the scheme prevents 3-point shots (defenders overplay on the perimeter) and at-the-rim attempts (dropping the 5 forces mid-range shots over the top).

The Antelopes' interior defense has been solid (35th nationally in 2-point shooting allowed, 45%), and they’re mostly denying 3-point attempts (88th in 3-point rate allowed, 35%). They could be a tad better at closing out and preventing quality 3-point looks, but we’re nitpicking.

I'm worried about GCU’s inability to generate open jumpers, but the ‘Lopes only want to rim-run downhill, so that’s not a huge issue.

Ultimately, the ‘Lopes are the consensus WAC favorite.

I think we’ll see Louisiana Tech’s best effort, and I think the no-middle matches up well with Grand Canyon’s offense.

Per ShotQuality, the Bulldogs rank 15th nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed (.90) and third in at-the-rim PPP allowed (1.01). Behind Batcho, the Bulldogs can stop the Antelopes.

However, I’m unsure if Louisiana Tech can score much. The Bulldogs could maybe generate some post-up offense from Batcho against a smaller ‘Lopes interior, but I don’t think they’ll be able to crash the offensive glass. Plus, they don’t love peddling in the mid-range, which bodes poorly against Grand Canyon’s drop coverage.

I wouldn’t mind backing La Tech. It’s worth mentioning that the Bulldogs have a significant rest advantage, as they haven’t played since the 20th. Meanwhile, GCU downed D-II Bethesda on Wednesday. But Grand Canyon’s uber-strong home-court advantage and the Bulldogs’ relatively anemic offense have me hesitant.

Instead, I like the under at 140 or better.

I think both defenses match up well, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rock fight. The Bulldogs also play much slower than the ‘Lopes, so if they dictate tempo in a bounce-back spot on extra rest, it'll limit possessions.

ShotQuality projects this total around 137, so there are a few points of value against the market.

Pick: Under 139.5 (Play to 138)

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