Minnesota vs San Francisco Odds, Pick for Sunday
Pictured: Dawson Garcia. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)
Minnesota vs San Francisco Odds
Chase Center plays host to the hometown San Francisco Dons and Minnesota Golden Gophers on Sunday evening.
San Francisco (4-2) has lost to Grand Canyon and Boise State, but those came by a combined nine points. The Dons have since won consecutive games by double digits, including one over DePaul. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 4-1, but should be 5-0 if not for a monumental collapse against Missouri.
So which side has the edge here? Let's look at the college basketball odds and make a pick for Minnesota vs. San Francisco.
For the Gophers, it’s the Dawson Garcia show. The Minnesota native is averaging over 18 points per game and is the only Gopher averaging double-figure points.
Garcia is 6-foot-11, Minnesota's tallest starter, but the entire starting lineup, besides point guard Elijah Hawkins, boasts great length. Four of the five starters are 6-foot-4 or taller, and three are 6-foot-7 or taller. That’s a different level of size than San Francisco has faced thus far.
Minnesota lacks top-end talent outside of Garcia, but boasts a deep rotation as 10 players play more than 11 minutes per game.
Minnesota's two significant concerns are 3-point shooting and turnovers. Minnesota is turning the ball over 14 times per contest and shooting just 33% from 3. That’s not an ideal combination for winning games in the Big Ten.
We have yet to see where Minnesota looks for scoring when Garcia struggles. My best guess is Cam Christie, the sixth man. The freshman guard is the team's third-leading scorer and — by far — the team's best perimeter scorer.
On the flip side, Jonathan Mogbo is a complete revolution for San Francisco. The highly athletic forward, who was known for his defensive tenacity at Missouri State, has unlocked the offensive side of his game. Mogbo leads the Dons with 14.2 points and 8.8 rebounds. He's also shooting 76% from the floor.
Mogbo turned Missouri State into a top-75 defensive unit a season ago, and his fingerprints are all over this 39th-ranked Dons defense, per KenPom.
San Francisco’s success hinges on the production of starting guards Marcus Williams and Mike Sharavjamts. Williams is able to creat shots and Sharavjamts, at 6-foot-8, is a mismatch with great playmaking chops.
Perhaps the most integral piece is freshman Ryan Beasley, who's injected elite-level shooting into the Dons offense. He's the one guy San Francisco can trust to run off a screen and let it fly from downtown. Surely, he'll make a difference in this one.
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Strangely, both teams have very similar issues. I trust San Francisco’s guards more to overcome potential hardships, so I’m backing the Dons in what’s likely a hard-fought tout.
The size difference between Sharavjamts and Minnesota's guards is a mismatch worth monitoring.
Pick: San Francisco Moneyline