College Basketball Pick & Prediction for Missouri vs Florida

Florida and Missouri square off on Wednesday in a mismatch of epic proportions.

The Gators are locked into the field of 68 for the first time since 2021, and they have a decent shot at a top-three seed in the SEC Tournament.

The Tigers, meanwhile, come into this game winless against SEC competition at a baffling 0-14. Even against the number, Mizzou has been a dud, covering just three times in 14 tries in conference play.

Todd Golden and his staff full of analytical minds know the importance of winning by margin. Winning by more means a higher ranking in predictive metrics, the key driver to seeding in the NCAA Tournament.

Despite the clear edge in ability and massive spread, don’t expect the Gators to come out sleepwalking or try to cruise to a lazy win.

Game 1 was fairly competitive in Columbia, though Florida eventually extended its lead and took the contest by 12, covering easily in the process. Mizzou went just 3-of-16 from deep in that one, and the Gators dominated the glass.

From seeing how each team has performed since that Jan. 20 matchup, we should expect a similar result: Florida by double digits. The question will be if the Gators can cover the sizable spread.

Mizzou’s problems this season have stemmed from a severe lack of talent, primarily in the frontcourt. Injuries to key backcourt personnel have hurt their overall performance, but the Tigers have gotten nothing from their forwards and centers all season.

The four-man rotation of Mabor Majak, Jordan Butler, Connor Vanover and Trent Pierce weigh maybe a combined 100 pounds put together, and players like Noah Carter, Jesus Carralero Martin and Aidan Shaw have been stretched out of position all year.

Florida ate Mizzou alive inside in Game 1, and that should be the case in the rematch as well. Micah Handlogten and Tyrese Samuel are a legitimate big-man combo in the frontcourt, and freshman Alex Condon has been a pleasant surprise in a reserve role.

Head coach Dennis Gates hasn’t been able to find a consistent rotation, which is concerning, to put it mildly, given we’re only a few days away from March.

Offense often devolves into a “my turn, your turn” style of play featuring Sean East and Tamar Bates, the lone Tigers who can consistently create their own shots and put points on the board.

Last season, Gates was a major proponent of scoring in transition and pushing tempo, but it’s clear he’s purposefully rolled back pace this season as a result of his roster’s talent disadvantage.

The smarter play is to try and limit possessions against superior competition. Unfortunately for Mizzou, half-court offense just hasn’t come easy for the Tigers. Ball screens for East have been the main source of scoring, and Bates has been among the most efficient players in the country shooting the rock, but efficiency has been lacking outside of the terrific twosome.

Theoretically, playing smaller — as Mizzou tends to do — should give them an edge offensively.

Carter is a good enough shooter to pull his man to the perimeter at the 4, and Vanover is capable of hitting 3s. In practice, though, it hasn’t mattered. No qualifying shooter outside of East, Bates and Nick Honor is hitting over 30% from deep (although Martin is shooting 31% on only 16 attempts).

And the size Mizzou gives up in a small-ball lineup defensively is too much to overcome on the offensive end.

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Expect a bloodbath on the boards.

Florida is the third-best offensive rebounding team in the country by rate, while Mizzou ranks 353rd nationally in defensive rebounding rate. This is about as big of a mismatch on the glass as we’ve seen all season.

A small-ball lineup will doom Mizzou on this end, as it leaves an undersized 4 trying to keep Samuel, Handlogten and Condon off the glass — a laughable notion.

And even if Mizzou goes “big,” it doesn't have the muscle to keep Florida’s bigs at bay. This is truly a “men vs. boys” battle physically at every spot on the floor.

Florida’s transfer guards, Walter Clayton Jr. and Zyon Pullin, have been fantastic this year and have the experience to match the veteran presence in Mizzou’s backcourt. They will attack Mizzou’s defense off ball screens and look to push the tempo in transition.

Like Gates, Golden knows an uptempo game favors his Gators, and he doesn’t need a full arsenal to stay home on the defensive glass to control rebounds, allowing Florida to start its break early.

The level of play has risen for Florida since its first matchup against Mizzou in January. Heading into that game, the Gators were just 11-6 (1-3) and still figuring out rotations. Now, Florida looks like a complete team that's gelling and firing on all cylinders.

Since winning that first contest, Florida has gone 7-2 with wins over Auburn, Kentucky and Mississippi State.

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This game might stay close for 20 or even 30 minutes, but expect Florida to pull away in the waning minutes. Mizzou has had a propensity for fading down the stretch, and it does not have the horses to keep up with Florida for a full 40.

The spread is large, but the price is right.

The massive edge on the glass is too big of a mismatch to ignore and is predictable from game to game. While Mizzou likely shoots better than it did in Game 1, it will still struggle to keep Florida from getting second chances.

Pick: Florida -13