New Mexico vs Utah State Odds, Prediction | NCAAB Betting Guide

It's time to take a look at the New Mexico Lobos vs. Utah State Aggies odds and make a prediction in our NCAAB betting guide for Saturday's Mountain West matchup.

The Utah State Aggies currently hold a 6-seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology. On Saturday, they play host to the New Mexico Lobos, who are one of Lunardi's "last four in."

The Lobos could notch a Quad 1 win and possibly cement themselves in the field of 68. Utah State lost the first matchup against New Mexico, but this time around the Aggies get to play at home inside Smith Spectrum.

Utah State should come out victorious in this one despite New Mexico presenting as a tough matchup. See why in my Lobos-Aggies preview.

New Mexico has dropped five of its last nine games, which is why it resides in the bubble.

The Lobos have done a great job this season both taking care of the ball and forcing turnovers. Utah State tends to turn the ball over often and will not force many mistakes on defense.

That said, New Mexico’s transition offense is horrible while Utah State ranks within the top five in points per possession, according to ShotQuality. The Aggies also boast a superior transition defense — if they limit turnovers, they should hold the edge in transition.

New Mexico has a high frequency of taking the ball inside and attacking the rim. The Lobos rank 135th in 2-point field-goal percentage; Utah State ranks 301st defensively, allowing opponents to shoot about 53%. This could work in favor of the Lobos.

The Lobos are also efficient when posting up while Utah State struggles at defending this setup. It's just another advantage for New Mexico.

On the other hand, New Mexico doesn't take many 3s while Utah State can lock down the arc. Opponents are shooting below 29% against the Aggies from deep, so if the Lobos need a late bucket from the perimeter, the Aggies should have the antidote.

Maximize your New Mexico-Utah State action with our BetMGM bonus code.

Like New Mexico, Utah State likes to take the ball inside. The Aggies are incredibly efficient from 2-point land, shooting over 57%.

New Mexico also struggles to defend 2-point range as opponents are shooting 49.4% against them. Utah State ranks 18th in points per possession at the rim (per Shot Quality), while New Mexico ranks below 300th in points per possession on defense in this area. Utah State should hold a tremendous advantage inside offensively.

In addition, Utah State is adept at drawing plenty of fouls — Great Osobor and Ian Martinez are the two to watch in this aspect of the game. New Mexico fouls often on the defensive end and does not get to the free-throw line much on offense. Yes, Utah State is only shooting a touch over 71% as a unit, but New Mexico is not much better. The Aggies should hold the free-throw edge as well.

Utah State ranks within the top 25 in rebounding on the defensive end, but that hasn't translated to the offensive glass. New Mexico is better at rebounding offensively, so if anything, Utah State should be able to cut into New Mexico’s usual ability to manufacture put-back chances.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Utah State has an advantage in more aspects of the game than New Mexico. The Aggies, however, could be vulnerable on the glass offensively and allow buckets inside.

However, the Aggies are also really good at scoring inside. This should lead the Aggies to a tight victory in conference play. Take them to -4.

Pick: Utah State -3 (Play to -4)