NCAAB Odds, Pick for Ohio State vs Northwestern

A massive Big Ten matchup tips off at 7:30 p.m. local time in Chicago, as the Ohio State Buckeyes visit the Purple Wildcats of Northwestern. Both teams are bubbalicious as we near the end of January, with Ohio State firmly on the outside of the NCAA tournament looking in and Northwestern just inside the field, per most bracketologists.

For the second season in a row, the Buckeyes have shown an inability to win on the road in conference play. Last year, OSU was 1-9 away from Columbus in Big Ten matchups, and this season, the Buckeyes sit a disappointing 0-4. A neutral-site win over Alabama is all that holds up a flimsy resume in desperate need of quality victories.

Northwestern has flexed its muscles at home this season, knocking off Purdue, Michigan State, Maryland and most recently, Illinois. The Wildcats, ironically, have only lost to Chicago State within the friendly confines of Welsh-Ryan Arena.

OSU’s lone Big Ten road win last year coincidentally came against Northwestern, but can this version of the Buckeyes triumph where bona fide Big Ten title contenders have failed?

The Buckeyes have struggled on both ends of the floor in conference play. Offensively, a primarily half-court attack has been prone to long scoring droughts and stagnation, as shooting has cooled.

OSU is heavily reliant on jump shots. Per Hoop-Math, only five teams nationally have attempted a lower percentage of shots near the rim than the Buckeyes, and mid-range jumpers have become all too common in the OSU offensive lexicon.

The Buckeyes have talented guards in Bruce Thornton, Roddy Gayle Jr. and Dale Bonner, each of whom can create his own shot. Jamison Battle is one of the deadliest spot-up weapons in the league. Felix Okpara and Zed Key have shown the ability to dominate on the block.

And yet the offense has still struggled. An inability to get to the charity stripe and cold outside shooting has made things difficult on the Buckeyes through eight games.

The defense hasn’t fared much better. The Buckeyes have repeatedly been torched from deep this season. They're certainly a candidate for regression, but it's also a result of a lack of ball pressure and perimeter length.

OSU doesn't force turnovers, which negates an otherwise sound defensive scheme from head coach Chris Holtmann. The Buckeyes score high marks in Shot Quality Allowed, as they wall off the rim and force opponents into mid-range looks.

But close-outs on the perimeter have been a problem, and the Buckeyes rank 327th nationally in points per possession allowed on spot-ups.

One positive that OSU fans can lean on through early conference tilts on the road: The Buckeyes have had a real chance to win three of their four road contests. They held second-half leads over Penn State, Indiana and Michigan before ultimately succumbing to late-game runs.

It hasn’t been so much of an overall game plan or execution problem, as it’s been a finishing problem.

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The Cats have been nails at home against teams not named Chicago State. Beating two legitimate national title contenders is no easy feat – and steamrolling Michigan State ain’t too shabby either.

Interestingly, it’s been the Wildcats’ offense that's carried them to early conference success, a departure from the primarily defensive-minded Chris Collins teams of the past.

Led by one of the best point guards in America in Boo Buie, Northwestern doesn't turn the ball over, and like OSU, it plays a half-court focused offense chock full of pick-and-rolls and basket cuts.

Only one team in conference play has shot better from deep than Northwestern, and Buie is a true end-of-game go-to star that can be relied upon in crunch time.

Junior wing Brooks Barnhizer has also undergone a career renaissance in league play, averaging 16.4 points per game.

We know OSU will allow open looks from the perimeter, which is music to the ears of the many Northwestern shooters, from Buie and Barnhizer to Ty Berry and Ryan Langborg.

Despite its 5-3 Big Ten mark, Northwestern has been the league’s worst defense through eight conference games. The Wildcats are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league, they foul at the highest rate and they’ve allowed the highest 3-point percentage.

Northwestern’s saving grace has been its ability to create havoc and force turnovers. Only one team has forced a higher rate of turnovers in Big Ten play, and Northwestern has plenty of athletic, quick perimeter pieces to extend out past the arc, while a legitimate shot-blocker in Matthew Nicholson awaits inside.

If OSU can handle the rock – something it’s done fairly well this season – it should be able to get the jump shots it’s preferred (for better or worse) against this Wildcats defense. And the Buckeyes will have a major edge on the offensive glass with their superior size and strength.

To boot, Northwestern is not a team looking to beat overzealous glass crashing opponents in transition the other way. Only six teams nationally have attempted a lower rate of transition field goals than the Cats this season, per Hoop-Math.

This should be a low-scoring, scrappy game between two teams looking execute in the half court. Last year, the two matchups between OSU and Northwestern resulted in 130 and 132 points, with 68 and 63 possessions, respectively.

This year’s total is significantly higher due to both squads’ woes on the defensive end. But you can bet your bottom dollar that the pace should stay relatively low.

Given pace is easier to predict than efficiency, an “under” play is probably the best way to go in this contest.

If you’re looking for action on the side, Ohio State might be the horse to back. Northwestern is due for a letdown at home after its emotional overtime win over Illinois, and the Buckeyes haven't been as bad on the road as their final scores have indicated.

There should be a fair contingent of Buckeye fans in the stands up in Evanston.

Pick: Under 138.5