Oklahoma vs TCU Pick & Prediction: Desperation for Frogs?

Editor's Note: Rivaldo Soares (ankle) and John Hugley IV (knee) are out, according to Jon Rothstein.

It may not be quite the last stand for the two teams taking the court in the eight vs. nine seed matchup in the Big 12 tournament Wednesday afternoon, but it may feel that way.

Both TCU and Oklahoma began the season successfully, losing only three combined games in the non-conference. However, critics — namely ACC head coaches — likely would say that was a direct result of weak non-conference scheduling.

Each team had a mediocre regular-season conference record, making this game a crucial one. The winner likely will solidify their place in the NCAA tournament, while the loser will sit squarely on the bubble for the next four days.

The Sooners certainly sputtered down the stretch. After starting Big 12 play with a respectable 6-5 record in their first 11 league games, Oklahoma lost five of its last seven to fall to 8-10 in conference.

Fans began to show up sparingly to home games in Norman. Then, the fanbase began to hear speculation that Porter Moser was entertaining the idea of taking the DePaul job after this season concluded. The noise reached such a volume that it caused Moser to publicly deny the speculation on X this week.

Injuries have certainly contributed to Oklahoma’s recent sputtering. John Hugley IV hasn't played since February 10 when he suffered a meniscus injury against in-state foe Oklahoma State. Hugley provides an interior defensive presence that the team has missed dearly.

Oklahoma was a borderline top-10 defense early in the season, but the Sooners have regressed recently, allowing 75+ points in five of the seven games Hugley has missed.

The most potent bench scorer Moser has had at his disposal also appears to be in line to miss some time.

Rivaldo Soares has been a great sixth man for Oklahoma all season after transferring from Oregon. Soares, the team’s fourth-highest scorer this season, seemed to injure his ankle severely Saturday at Texas in a game that was unfortunately already decided at the point he tweaked it.

His teammate Sam Godwin was the unfortunate culprit in causing the collision that will cause Soares to miss at least Oklahoma’s Big 12 opener against TCU.

In a tournament setting like this, depth matters.

Oklahoma's depth is now totally gone without Hugley and Soares — and the Sooners didn't have much depth to begin with.

Even if Oklahoma were to sneak by TCU, I'd fade it in the next round against the Cougars.

Vibes aren't much higher in the TCU locker room than they are in the opposite side of the gym.

The Frogs have also sputtered lately, losing four of their last six games entering the Big 12 tournament.

Jamie Dixon's name hasn't been directly tied to any job openings in the same way Moser has — so there's a bit of good new for all the Frog fans.

TCU's truly abysmal non-conference schedule is the reason its recent struggles are very concerning for its NCAA tournament chances. Of the 362 total NCAA D-I teams, TCU's non-conference strength of schedule ranks the as 357th-most difficult.

Yikes.

And if not for a truly controversial finish in a win at Georgetown, the non-conference resume could be even worse for the Frogs. If the NCAA tournament's selection committee truly decides to emphasize non-conference scheduling as a key criteria this year, TCU could easily be left out of the field.

Thus, TCU's effort on Wednesday should be somewhat desperate. Dixon is a fiery coach on the sidelines and seems capable of motivating his teams, but the Frogs just lost to UCF at home.

Dixon has had to manage injuries as well, but certainly not to the same extent as Oklahoma. Ernest Udeh Jr., who transferred to Fort Worth after playing his freshman season at Kansas, was forced to miss time with leg and head injuries within the past month.

Udeh was cleared by doctors to return in mid-February. Strangely, he continued to sit for a couple of games beyond that point, irking Dixon enough for the coach to publicly remark, "It's up to him now" while commenting on when the forward would be set to return.

TCU is not a big team, so it certainly missed Udeh's rebounding and shot-blocking ability.

The defensive identity of this team is certainly not up-to-par with a healthy version of Oklahoma.

Both these teams are "bubbly," but I envision TCU is slightly more desperate.

Oklahoma suffered a buzzer-beating loss at home at the hands of Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead recently, which strangely may have been a positive (it showed the committee it can hang with one of the best teams in the country).

I'm taking a healthier and more offensively potent Horned Frogs side to get a win they desperately need.

Pick: TCU ML -135 (Play to -150)