NCAAB Odds, Pick for Santa Clara vs Saint Mary’s

The Saint Mary’s Gaels opened the season with five losses in eight games, but have since dropped just one — against Missouri State. The Gaels are riding an eight-game winning streak, and with Gonzaga having a down year, the Gaels could be on their way to a West Coast Conference regular season title.

Their opponent on Wednesday will be Santa Clara. The Broncos have a solid wins over Oregon, Washington State and Gonzaga, but the last time they matched up with Saint Mary’s, it was a bloodbath. The Gaels won by 24 points and held the Broncos to 49 points in Santa Clara.

Saint Mary’s likely won't trounce Santa Clara by more than 20 points, but the Gaels can keep this game out of reach.

The Broncos thrive when they can hit their outside shots. They rank in the top-40 in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality, but Saint Mary’s ranks first defensively in Open 3 Rate. The Gaels hold opponents to the fewest points per possession on catch-and-shoot threes and rank 44th in defensive points per possession when guarding off-the-dribble 3s. Santa Clara ranks below 90th in both, so even though the Broncos shoot 36.3% from deep, Saint Mary’s will have the defensive antidote. Adding on, the Gaels tend to limit opponents from taking 3s in general.

Well, Santa Clara should be able to just get the ball inside, then, right? No, Saint Mary’s is holding opponents to 43.1% shooting from 2-point range. Saint Mary’s ranks in the top-35 in defensive Rim and 3 Rate, so the Gaels will force the Broncos to take inefficient shots.

One area the Broncos could exploit the Gaels is in getting to the free-throw line. The Gaels will foul relatively often and the Broncos rank 240th in free-throw attempt rate.

On the other side of the court, Saint Mary’s has a pretty well-rounded offense, despite shooting only 32% from deep. The Gaels have Aidan Mahaney and Alex Ducas to rely on from deep and both are shooting above 35% from 3.

Santa Clara also yields a ton of 3-point chances to its opposition. The Gaels rank in the top-40 in Open 3 Rate on offense, while Santa Clara ranks 338th defensively. Look for Mahaney and Ducas to rain from downtown, when provided the opportunity.

Saint Mary’s ranks in the top-30 in Rim and 3 Rate and manufactures around 54% of its points from 2-point range. Santa Clara is slightly better at making stops inside the arc, but the Gaels should create shots inside, too.

Perhaps the Gaels’ biggest edge in this game will be the rebounding as Saint Mary's is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Santa Clara isn't bad, but the rebounding edge was part of the reason why Saint Mary's dominated Santa Clara in the previous meeting. The Gaels won that rebounding battle 36-27 and it could be even more skewed this time around.

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On paper, two top-three teams in the WCC should make for a pretty close matchup, but Saint Mary’s is efficient on both sides of the ball. The Gaels will create good shots and prevent the Broncos from getting open looks. Saint Mary’s also has a tremendous size advantage. Take the Gaels at home and back them up to -14.

Pick: Saint Mary's -12.5 (Play to -14)