Stanford vs Arizona State Odds, Pick for Thursday

The Arizona State Sun Devils desperately need a win on Thursday night to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. They take on the Stanford Cardinal, who are in a similar position.

Thankfully for Arizona State, this game will be played at home. ASU has thrived on the defensive end, while Stanford is a bit more offensively focused. However, the Sun Devils should be able to make enough stops, keep possession of the ball and find some open looks to get by in a close victory.

The Cardinal have had some major issues on offense this season, specifically when it comes to turning the ball over. Unfortunately, this is a horrid matchup for those problems, as the Sun Devils can force plenty of turnovers. In fact, the Sun Devils rank in the top-50 in both offensive and defensive turnover rate. That could be an issue for Stanford as the Cardinal have lost the turnover battle in every loss this season, except against Michigan. In that game, Stanford and Michigan tied at 13.

Now, Stanford can hit 3s. The Cardinal are shooting over 39% from deep as a unit, and they shoot a lot of 3s. Brandon Angel, Kanaan Carlyle, Spencer Jones and Michael Jones all shoot above 40% from outside. That being said, even if the Sun Devils give up a lot of 3-point attempts, they are relatively strong at defending 3s off-the-dribble. That will offset some of Stanford's ability to take over the game from deep. Additionaly, opponents are shooting around 32% from 3 against ASU.

On the other end of the court, the Sun Devils have a putrid offense. That's why getting out in transition has been so crucial to pushing ASU over the finish line.

The Sun Devils also tend to score by getting to the free-throw line. However, Stanford doesn't foul often. Jose Perez is the name to watch as he constantly gets to the free-throw line for the Sun Devils. He's also hitting over 50% of his 3s, which could cause a mismatch on the wing, as Stanford is allowing opponents to shoot almost 35% from outside. It does not help ASU that Adam Miller and some other renowned shooters just haven't gotten going. It could be a boost if one of ASU's streakier deep-ball threats could hit a few to spread the floor.

Arizona State has also had on the glass. Luckily for them, Stanford can't crash on the offensive end, so put-back chances could be few and far between for either team.

Nothing ASU has done offensively has been impressive, but both Stanford and ASU rank below 180th in Rim and 3 Rate, per Shot Quality. Simply put, neither team is efficient in the shot selection department. As a result, I lean toward the better defensive team.

Arizona State and Stanford are both desperate for a win, but ASU should win the turnover margin and be able to cut into the rebounding margin by grabbing some defensive boards. Yes, Stanford can shoot better, but ASU only needs Perez and a couple other players to fill in the gaps. Look for the Sun Devils to take a close one in Tempe. Play them to -2.5.

Pick: Arizona St -1.5 (Play to -2.5)