Villanova vs North Carolina Pick & Prediction

The favorites rolled in the Battle 4 Atlantis first round, with North Carolina drowning Northern Iowa behind a bevy of 3s and Villanova dropping a surprising 85 points on Texas Tech’s tough defense.

The Tar Heels are likely the more athletic, lengthy and experienced team in this semifinal matchup. Still, Villanova has some distinct advantages that should be difference-makers on Thursday in the Bahamas.

North Carolina wants to run the floor and play through the post. RJ Davis and Cormac Ryan are two experienced guards who take care of the ball despite the quick pace, and Armando Bacot is still Armando Bacot, scoring 1.17 post-up PPP (82nd percentile).

Unfortunately, that style of play doesn’t play well against Villanova.

This Villanova team is full of fresh faces but still plays like a typical Villanova team. The Wildcats play at a plodding pace (313th in tempo), and their perimeter-based offense means they can get back on defense quickly and prevent run-out transition buckets (.75 transition PPP allowed, 96th percentile).

While their post-up defensive metrics are questionable, getting inside on the Wildcats is challenging, as their roster is filled with hard-nosed, rigid, lengthy wings that deny interior buckets.

So, good luck to North Carolina on trying to run its quick-strike, post-heavy offense.

Conversely, Villanova’s aforementioned perimeter-based offense should play against North Carolina’s defense.

The Wildcats run ball screen after ball screen around the horn until they find an open 3-point shooter. It’s been working well so far, as the Wildcats are seventh nationally in 3-point rate (50.2%) and 14th in offensive efficiency.

North Carolina’s ball-screen defense is relatively average (.68 PPP allowed, 52nd percentile), and the Heels allow a ton of 3-point shots, ranking 251st in 3-point rate allowed.

Otherwise put, North Carolina will let Villanova run whatever it wants to run, and if Villanova can produce good looks against Texas Tech’s elite no-middle, ball-screen-icing defense, it’ll be fine in this matchup.

So, schematically, I love this matchup for Nova.

And while I think North Carolina has the experience advantage, it’s minimal. The Heels rank sixth nationally in average D-I experience (3.1 years), but the Cats rank 11th (3.0).

The Wildcats feature three seniors in their starting lineup, and that doesn’t include Hakim Hart, who’s coming off the bench in the early going.

The key for Villanova was getting its three incoming wings – TJ Bamba, Tyler Burton and Hart – acclimated with the existing inside-out duo of Justin Moore and Eric Dixon.

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There would be some growing pains — like the four-point loss to Penn– but the group is starting to unite, stifling Maryland and Tech in back-to-back games.

Four of five Tar Heel starters are upperclassmen, and there are two fifth-years on the roster (Bacot and Ryan). But the Heels also rely somewhat heavily on incoming freshman guard Elliot Cadeau, who’s starting at point and expected to shoulder some ball-handling duties.

Cadeau is a supposedly elite passer and is supposed to be a key playmaker for the first or second units. So far, he’s not living up to the hype, pairing a 22% assist rate with a 22% turnover rate.

If anybody on either team is going to get shaken underneath the bright Atlantis lights, it’s Cadeau, and Villanova will make the most of his mistakes.

Finally, I expect some game-to-game shooting regression for North Carolina. The Heels made 12 of their 26 3-point attempts (46.2%) against Northern Iowa on Wednesday, including eight of their first nine second-half attempts, which is totally unsustainable.

Meanwhile, Villanova allowed Tech to drain 14 3s at a 39% clip and still won by 16.

I'm worried that Villanova will be tired on a back-to-back after playing a highly-physical Red Raiders team, but I like the matchup too much to be scared away.

So, give me the Wildcats to beat the Tar Heels for the first time since the 2016 NCAA tournament championship game.

Pick: Villanova +2.5 (Play to PK)