West Virginia vs TCU Odds, Pick for Monday
CINCINNATI, OHIO – JANUARY 16: Jameer Nelson Jr. #4 of the TCU Horned Frogs dribbles the ball in the second half against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Fifth Third Arena on January 16, 2024 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
West Virginia vs TCU Odds, Pick
Monday night’s Big 12 showdown between the TCU Horned Frogs and West Virginia Mountaineers might be a one-sided affair or it could showcase the ever-present element of unpredictability that highlights college basketball.
This matchup pits two teams against each other that have had contrasting seasons, with each side bringing its own set of strengths and challenges to the court.
Throughout the season, TCU has demonstrated why they should be considered among the top conference contenders, showcasing a robust offensive scheme complemented by a disciplined defense. On offense, the Horned Frog’s 29th ranked Adjusted Offensive Efficiency has been characterized by efficient ball movement, leading to high-percentage shooting from both inside and beyond the arc.
This effectiveness is reflected in their 47th ranked effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and 21st ranked offensive rebound percentage (OREB%), which have remained impressive both over the full season and the last 10 games. Their ability to control the tempo and garner second chance points make them a challenge for any opponent.
Defensively, TCU has excelled in limiting opponents' scoring opportunities (56th in adjusted defensive efficiency), leveraging their athleticism to disrupt offensive plays and force turnovers.
Their elite 29th ranked turnover percentage highlight a team that understands the importance of defensive stops and forcing errors by their opponent. Add in a ferocious home court advantage, where they own a 10-2 record, and TCU becomes an even bigger challenge to overcome.
West Virginia, on the other hand, has faced its share of ups and downs (mostly downs) this season, with the last 10 games underscoring some of the challenges they've encountered. Offensively, the Mountaineers have struggled with consistency, reflected in their 182nd Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 258th ranked eFG%.
The Mountaineers inability to sustain offensive momentum has been a major concern, particularly against teams with strong defensive setups. Their inability to secure offensive rebounds (258th) and propensity to turn the ball over (276th in steals) lead to minimal scoring opportunities.
Defensively, West Virginia has shown resilience but also vulnerability against high-scoring teams. Their 123rd ranked Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and the Four Factors metrics reveal a squad that battles hard but often struggles to contain more dynamic offenses. The Mountaineers' defensive efforts, including steals (349th) and blocks (147th) has yielded minimal impact due to periods of inconsistency and lapses in concentration.
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When considering the consensus -12.5 point spread favoring TCU against West Virginia, the analysis leans towards the Horned Frogs covering the spread. This is underpinned by TCU's proven offensive prowess and defensive solidity, traits that have defined their season and recent performances. Against a West Virginia team that has struggled for consistency on both ends of the court, TCU's balanced and disciplined approach positions them well to not only win but also cover the sizable spread.
As long as TCU's can employ a disciplined defense and prevent sending West Virginia to the charity stripe (31st in free throw rate), the Horned Frogs should control this game from the get go. While the double-digit spread is a hefty one, TCU's ability to execute on both ends of the court and capitalize on West Virginia's vulnerabilities offers a stout case for them to cover. Take TCU -12.5 at bet365 and expect a dominant performance from the home team.