College Basketball Best Bets: Three Man Weave’s 3 Picks for November 29, Including Tulsa vs. Oral Roberts
Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Andre Curbelo
- While Notre Dame vs. Illinois is a spotlight game tonight, don't forget about Tulsa vs. Cinderella story Oral Roberts.
- Also, Grand Canyon takes on an underrated Loyola Marymount team.
- Jim Root from Three Man Weave explains where the value lies in all three of these Monday matchups in college hoops.
Following the conclusion of Feast Week, the college basketball season isn’t slowing down any time soon.
One of the marquee early-season events begins on Monday evening, as the Big Ten/ACC Challenge tips off. But while that will take center stage for most of the week, we can’t forget other matchups that offer value from a betting perspective.
With that in mind, Jim Root of Three Man Weave breaks down his three best bets for November 29, including one showdown between two heavyweight conferences and two other clashes.
Monday’s College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Tulsa vs. Oral Roberts
The darling of the 2021 NCAA Tournament has not gone anywhere, folks. Max Abmas and his Oral Roberts Golden Eagles are still lurking in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and crosstown rival (the University of) Tulsa will make the 20 minute drive to ORU for this annual rivalry clash.
This matchup sets up perfectly for how ORU wants to play offensively. That means a steady diet of spread pick-and-roll for Abmas, which leads to a high volume of 3s for the Golden Eagles’ stable of shooters.
Abmas is masterful in such sets. Per Synergy, he is currently scoring in the 85th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. Contrast that with Tulsa’s abysmal PnR defense, which ranks in the sixth percentile, also via Synergy.
The Golden Hurricane will either give up 40 to Abmas or be forced to over help, opening up shots for guys like DeShang Weaver, Issac McBride and Trey Phipps.
The risk of a letdown performance exists after Oral Roberts just lost in overtime to another in-state big brother, Oklahoma State, on Friday. However, the situation — once again playing host to a bigger in-state rival — should offset that. Sure, the Golden Eagles missed out on knocking off the Cowboys, but scalping Tulsa would quickly wipe away that regret.
I would be doing you a disservice if I did not acknowledge that Frank Haith’s Golden Hurricane have covered four straight games in this series. However, the last two were by one point and two points; this is not a case of “one coach owns the other.”
I love -1 and I would still play this at -1.5 or -2.
Pick: Oral Roberts -1 (Play to -2)
Notre Dame vs. Illinois
Neither of these teams impressed during Feast Week. The Fighting Illini got mauled by Cincinnati and then barely survived against Kansas State, while the Irish left Maui Vegas with only a win over Chaminade.
Still, I think Notre Dame is in better shape currently.
Illinois is battling a bevy of injuries and health issues, to the point that it is impacting the ability to practice. The only guy I’m really expecting to miss this game is Trent Frazier, but Andre Curbelo and Jacob Grandison are clearly dealing with ailments of their own.
Even with Kofi Cockburn back, Illinois has struggled to find an identity. A UT Rio Grande Valley team down two starters just racked up 1.18 points per possession against this defense, shooting 56% inside the arc and taking 27 free throws.
Notre Dame is (obviously) a far superior offensive team, with a true interior threat in Paul Atkinson Jr. and a bevy of shooters dotting the perimeter.
The Irish defense will not take advantage of Illinois’ turnover issues, but many of the Illini’s errors are of the unforced variety.
Cockburn could be a problem inside, even with Atkinson in the fold. Of course, Illinois could not even blow out UTRGV with Cockburn racking up 38 points on 19 field goal attempts.
Notre Dame is also set up for some serious shooting regression on both ends. The Irish rank 298th nationally in 3P% despite having a group of snipers. Meanwhile, opponents are shooting an outrageous 45.6% from beyond the arc, a wholly unsustainable number that will hopefully regress some in this one.
I would take this one down to +5.5, with a smaller wager at +5 (oh, and a sprinkle on the moneyline)
Pick: Notre Dame +6.5 (Play to +5.5 or small wager on +5) | Sprinkle on ML
Grand Canyon vs. Loyola Marymount
Always end Best Bets with a beauty of a nightcap!
In a late tip out west, the reigning WAC champion Antelopes will play their second game in the L.A. area in three days. On Saturday, they skated by Pepperdine in an ugly 59-56 rock fight.
I expect a similar low-scoring, brick contest here. Neither team really wants to run, instead preferring to grind in the half court.
LMU ranks 220th nationally in average possession length on offense and GCU is a snail-esque 294th in the same stat. That means a ton of set defenses and late shot-clock scenarios.
Both teams should also struggle to score in the half court. LMU’s defense is most vulnerable at the rim, where the Lions completely lack a rim protector. They rank 342nd nationally in block rate, and though they are physically strong with some length on the wing, true big men can score in the post or via the offensive glass.
That sounds great for last year’s towering GCU team, but this year’s version is significantly more reliant on its guards, namely Jovan Blacksher and Holland “Boo Boo” Woods. They’re both smallish in stature, though, which means the length of LMU’s guards and wings should be a problem.
On the other end, LMU plays through power wing/monster truck Eli Scott. Grand Canyon’s best defender, Gabe McGlothan, should be an ideal matchup there as a high-effort, tough competitor who will not give an inch.
GCU coach Bryce Drew also has other options in athletic big man Yvan Ouedraogo and stout guard Sean Miller-Moore. If McGlothan & Co. can even partially neutralize Scott, it will have a “cut the head off the snake” effect on the LMU offense.
Anything 130 and above is golden — you’re at your own discretion once it dips below there, though.