Boise State vs San Diego State Odds, Prediction | NCAAB Betting Preview
Sam Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: Naje Smith (23) of the Boise State Broncos.
Boise State vs San Diego State Odds
|Boise State Odds
-110 / -110
|San Diego State Odds
-110 / -110
The top two teams in the Mountain West will battle it out when Boise State travels to California to take on the San Diego State Aztecs.
Both teams come into this matchup 8-2 in conference play and are tied atop the Mountain West standings.
Boise State brings some serious momentum into this contest, as the Broncos have won eight of their past nine games in conference play. Most recently, Boise State was able to take down Air Force behind a 22-point performance from shooting guard Max Rice.
Max Rice is having himself a game and his family loves to see it 🥰
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 17, 2022
On the other side, San Diego State is looking to rebound from its fifth loss of the season, a 75-66 game against Nevada. The Aztecs had trouble creating pressure on defense and forced Nevada into just six total turnovers.
To pick which team will take over first place in the Mountain West standings, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Boise State vs. San Diego State.
Boise State is the hottest team in the conference, largely because of its stellar play on the defensive end. The Broncos rank ninth nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and are limiting teams from the perimeter and on the glass.
Boise allows its opponents to score just 27.3% of their points from beyond the arc, a result of the Broncos allowing teams to shoot just 27.5% from deep. That mark is the fifth-lowest rate in the country.
In addition to extending their defense, the Broncos allow the sixth-fewest offensive rebounds in the country and give up second chances 22.4% of the time.
This experienced and competent defense will have an advantage against a San Diego State offense that thrives on its ability to get to the free-throw line. The Aztecs score 20.9% of their points from the charity stripe, while the Broncos are only allowing 16.7% of their opponents points to come from the line.
On the other end, the Broncos offense has been trending in the right direction, raking first in the Mountain West in both Effective Field-Goal Percentage and 3-point percentage.
These shooting numbers have a chance to continue against an Aztecs defense allowing opponents to shoot 42% of their field-goal attempts from 3-point range, resulting in 31.9% of their points.
Look for the Broncos offense to continue to progress while their defense remains rock solid.
San Diego State sits at the top of the Mountain West standings due to an offense that leads the conference in Adjusted Efficiency, offensive rebounding percentage and free-throw attempts.
These offensive tendencies will be tested against a Boise State defense that ranks inside the top-nine nationally in both Adjusted Efficiency and offensive rebounding percentage, while allowing just 27% of their opponents shots to come from the free-throw line.
Even more important to note is where San Diego State falls short on the offensive end. The Aztecs score just 50.3% of their points from inside the 3-point line, 203rd nationally. This lack of interior production will be significant against a Boise State team giving up 56% of their points on the interior, the 35th-highest rate in the country.
Overall, the Aztecs offense is led by senior Matt Bradley. The 6'4" California native leads the Aztecs with 13.2 points per game. On Friday night, Bradley will be matched up with defensive specialist Naje Smith. The 6'7" senior has an overall defensive BPR of 1.82, according to Evan Miyakawa's BPR rankings.
I believe Boise State's defense is perfectly equipped to take away the strengths of San Diego State's offense.
Boise State vs San Diego State Prediction
This is an ultra intriguing matchup between the best offense (San Diego State) and the best defense (Boise State) in the Mountain West.
Boise State has all the tools to make this a highly competitive matchup. The Broncos have been effective at limiting offensive rebounds and free-throw attempts, two areas where San Diego State's offense thrives.
In addition, Boise State is playing some of its best offense during this five-game winning streak. The Broncos are shooting 40.3% from deep in Mountain West play.
The Broncos will get plenty of open looks against a San Diego State defense that gives up 42% of their shots from beyond the arc.
Lastly, this is a Boise State team that boasts a 6-3-1 record on the road against the spread, while San Diego State has only covered the number in four of its 13 home games.
Look for Boise State to keep the momentum rolling and have a serious chance at upsetting the Aztecs.
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