Mississippi State vs. Colorado State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Target Saturday’s Over/Under (Dec. 11)
David Becker/Getty Images. Pictured: David Roddy.
- Mississippi State will head to Fort Collins to take on Colorado State on Saturday afternoon.
- Colorado State opened as 2-point favorites, but updated odds list Mississippi State -1 as of Saturday afternoon.
- Check out Anthony Dabbundo's top bet for the game below.
Mississippi State vs. Colorado State Odds
|Mississippi State Odds|
-110o / -110u
|Colorado State Odds|
-110o / -110u
Just eight unbeaten teams remain in all of college basketball, and one of them puts their unblemished record on the line Saturday against Mississippi State at a neutral venue in Fort Worth, Texas.
Niko Medved’s Colorado State squad has been one of the most impressive offenses in the country through nine games, and all of the returning production and perimeter shooting ability has led the Rams to a 9-0 start that includes wins over Creighton and Saint Mary’s.
No team in the country has shot better from the field or beyond the arc than the Rams.
At the other end, it’s a bit of a transition year for Ben Howland and Mississippi State. It lost a lot of production from last year’s team and has already lost at home to Minnesota and got blown out on a neutral floor by Louisville on Thanksgiving.
The Bulldogs’ best win came over Richmond in overtime, but they’ve struggled to find an identity early in the season.
The Mississippi State defense is underrated early in the season, in the sense that it forces opponents into really long possessions and has been unlucky to concede as many points as it has given the quality of the shots allowed.
The Bulldogs defense forces very few turnovers, which doesn’t matter as much in a matchup against a CSU offense that protects the ball at an elite rate.
One area in which Mississippi State excels is in grabbing defensive rebounds and keeping opponents off the foul line. Both of these will lead to few free points for the Rams off second-chance points and free throws.
The Bulldogs defense isn’t elite by any stretch but has some length to bother the CSU shooters and should keep this game in the half-court.
Mississippi State has a well-balanced attack and might be able to find some second-chance looks on offense against an undersized Rams unit, but the Bulldogs are also shooting at a much higher rate from deep than last year and could see a dip in shooting.
Few teams in the entire country are more efficient offensively than the Rams. CSU ranks No. 6 in overall adjusted offensive shot quality, per ShotQuality.
The Rams rank No. 1 in effective field goal percentage, No. 1 from beyond the arc and No. 10 in turnover rate. It certainly helps that the Rams shot 56.2% from beyond the arc against Saint Mary’s and 58.8% from deep against Creighton, the two toughest games the Rams have had on their early-season schedule.
But the quality of the shots taken and the returning continuity from last year’s team suggests the Rams should be one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. But can anyone really be that good? CSU is shooting 44% from 3 for the year, which no team has done in the last six years of college basketball.
Typically, the best shooting team in the country from deep will make about 41% of its 3s, so it’s highly likely that the Rams will not continue to shoot at this ridiculous rate, especially in a neutral-site venue that they won’t be as familiar with compared to at home in Fort Collins.
The Rams defense is a bit vulnerable overall, as they rank outside the top 100 overall, don’t protect the rim well because of their lacking size and struggle to guard bigs who can impose themselves on the glass.
David Roddy is a matchup nightmare with his ability to score at all levels and facilitate for others. Despite his short stature, he’s as good of a scorer as anyone in the country.
With that being said, though, he’s unlikely to continue making 46% from beyond the 3-point arc and does have some regression coming.
Mississippi State vs. Colorado State Betting Pick
The market opened with Colorado State as a 2-point favorite on a neutral court, which is about in line with the projection for the game.
CSU has a slight edge with its superior offense, but that offense does have some regression coming from beyond the 3-point arc. The Rams won’t shoot over 50% from deep in all of their big games this year, and it’s a good spot to bet against the Rams offense with a full-game under.
The ShotQuality data suggests that both the CSU offense and Mississippi State defense have some regression coming that should lead this to becoming a lower-scoring game.
I’d play the under at 143 or better.