Florida vs Alabama Odds & Prediction: The Team Total to Bet
Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images. Pictured: Myreon Jones (Florida)
Florida vs Alabama Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
No. 3 Alabama looks to stay perfect in the SEC with a win at home against Florida on Wednesday night.
The Crimson Tide responded to a poor showing at Oklahoma with dominant wins over Vanderbilt and LSU. They come into this matchup at 20-3.
Meanwhile, the Gators are fighting for their NCAA tournament lives, entering this game at 13-10 overall and 6-4 in the SEC.
This is the time of the year when every game means even more for teams on the bubble or programs battling for championships, which should give us a great matchup in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
In his debut season with the program, coach Todd Golden has his team in a position to earn a spot in the NCAA tournament. The Gators come into this contest in the “First Four Out,” according to ESPN’s Bracketology.
The Gators rank 43rd in the NET Rankings, but they are only 2-8 against Quad 1 teams.
However, they have had some very close losses.
Golden’s squad lost by two to Florida Atlantic, by three at then-No. 20 Auburn, five points at Kentucky and by a combined five points in a pair of losses to Texas A&M. You have to think the close losses could turn around in Florida’s favor in the final stages of the season.
The Gators have been extremely stout defensively, ranking in the top 10 in AdjD (8th), EFG% (8th) and defending 2-pointers (7th), according to Bart Torvik.
This is also the same team that is 41st in the country in 3-point defense, and it will need to be locked in against this talented Alabama offense.
If the Crimson Tide are going to secure the SEC regular season crown, they are going to have to do it against a very difficult schedule down the stretch.
Coach Nate Oats’ program still has both games against rival Auburn, a trip to play No. 6 Tennessee, Arkansas at home and a pair of contests against a surging Texas A&M squad.
On the court, Oats’ team is one of just four schools to rank in the top 20 in both AdjO and AdjD, joining No. 1 Purdue, No. 2 Houston and San Diego State.
This is also one of the first rosters under Oats that plays elite defense.
The Tide’s defense is top-five in EFG% (2nd) and opponent 2-point (2nd) and 3-point% (2nd).
Once you add in the solid offensive metrics, Alabama is built for a deep run in March.
Florida vs Alabama Betting Pick
When you stack these two teams up against each other, the unit that is clearly the weakest will be Florida on the offensive end of the floor, which is what I will be opposing with my bet.
My favorite bet for this matchup is to take the Gators’ team total under 69 or better.
Florida has only topped this number in a true road game once this season, which came all the way back on Nov. 18 against Florida State. This is also the same program that has averaged just 59.2 points per game over the last six contests away from home.
Meanwhile, Alabama has also been stout defensively at home, holding opponents to just 57.4 points per game in SEC play. The only teams to top this number against the Crimson Tide on the year were No. 16 Gonzaga, Memphis, then-No. 1 North Carolina, Connecticut and Michigan State.
All of those programs are inside the top 70 in AdjO, while Florida checks in at 176th.
The Gators are also outside the top 230 in EFG% (238th) and 3-point shooting (253rd).
Even with all of the negative remarks, I actually think the visitors are catching Alabama in a great scheduling spot, with a trip to in-state rival Auburn this weekend.
If the Gators have any shot at covering, the defense is going to have to hold the Crimson Tide to below 70 points, but we can also still cash our ticket in a blowout.
Pick: Florida Team Total Under 69 or Better
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