Kansas vs Oklahoma State Odds, Picks: Cowboys to Pull Off Upset?

Kansas vs Oklahoma State Odds, Picks: Cowboys to Pull Off Upset? article feature image

David K Purdy/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Thompson

Kansas vs. Oklahoma State Odds

Tuesday, Feb. 14
9 p.m. ET
Kansas Odds
-115o / -105u
Oklahoma State Odds
-115o / -105u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys host the Kansas Jayhawks on Tuesday night in yet another big game in a Big 12 season full of big games.

Texas leads the conference entering Monday at 9-3 overall with Kansas just one game back at 8-3. Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Iowa State all sit within sticking distance as the regular season winds down.

For Oklahoma State, this matchup is a huge opportunity to boost its postseason resume. The Cowboys are currently projected in the 9-10 seed range depending on where you look.

On the other side, Kansas is on a path to a No. 1 seed if it is able to continue to take care of business down the stretch.

These regular and postseason implications are combined with two teams playing some of their best basketball of the season, to make a uniquely intriguing matchup.

Kansas and Oklahoma State have won a combined nine of their last 10 games, with the Cowboys winning five straight coming into Tuesday.

To pick which team will keep this momentum going, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Kansas vs. Oklahoma State.

Kansas Jayhawks

This has been another memorable year for Bill Self and the Jayhawks, but there is still work to be done. Kansas sits one game out of first place in the Big-12 standings and the Jayhawks must outlast an Oklahoma State team peaking at just the right time to keep their title hopes alive.

In particular, Kansas must find an answer offensively against an Oklahoma State defense driving the Cowboys' success.

In the first matchup between these two, Kansas was held to fewer than 70 points for just the ninth time this season. The Jayhawks were able to sneak out a two-point win through a 20-point performance from Jalen Wilson.

On offense, the Jayhawks are at their best when creating high-quality interior looks via an assists. Kansas scores 60.4% of its points of an assists, the 16th-best rate in the country.

These looks on the interior will be critical against an Oklahoma State team allowing opponents to score just 48.9% of their points from 2-point range. This comes as a result of the Cowboys ranking seventh nationally in both block percentage and 2-point percentage.

Kansas has only scored 33.9% of its points from 3-point range, so will be asked to extend its offense on the perimeter against an elite interior defense.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys

After their victory over Ole Miss in the SEC / Big-12 challenge Mike Boynton's Cowboys have not looked back.

The Cowboys have rattled off four straight wins in conference play, with significant wins over TCU and Iowa State on the road.

In order to keep this hot streak going, Oklahoma State will need to match its elite defensive play with similar offensive production. The Cowboys ranks 119th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency due to their inability to take care of the basketball.

Oklahoma State has turned the ball over at a 20.8% clip, as a result of allowing a 10.9% steal percentage, 328th nationally. This inability to limit steals will be critical against a Jayhawks defense possessing the 15th-best steal percentage in the country at 12.6%.

On the surface, these turnover numbers do not bode well for the Cowboys.  However, with senior Avery Anderson sidelined with a wrist injury, the Cowboys have seen improved ball handling from replacement point guard John-Michael Wright.

Anderson lead the Cowboys in turnover percentage at 24.5% while Michael-Wright has been an improvement at 20.1%.

Wild game inside Gallagher-Iba. Oklahoma State blows a 19 point lead, but beats #15 TCU 79-73.

3rd win in a row. Back-to-back in Big 12.

Kalib Boone: 25 pts, 6 reb
Caleb Asberry: 19 pts
John-Michael Wright: 17 pts@OSUMBB@kalibboone32@calebasberry2@johnwright_11#OKStatepic.twitter.com/5nPcTjbXyg

— TJ Eckert (@TJEckertKTUL) February 4, 2023

In addition to this turnover progression, the Cowboys should see some outside shooting progression against a Kansas team allowing teams to shoot 34.1% from beyond the arc. This will be significant for an Oklahoma State team shooting 39.6% of its total field-goal attempts from beyond the arc, resulting in 32.4% of its points.

Kansas vs. Oklahoma State Betting Pick

This is a great spot to back an Oklahoma State team playing its best basketball of the season as of late. In addition, the Cowboys rank 49th nationally in home court advantage (according to KenPom), with an 11-2 overall record.

This Oklahoma State defense, which ranks inside the top-30 in points allowed, will force Kansas into settling for 3-point shots, an area the Jayhawks aren't comfortable playing from.

I like the Cowboys to potentially pull off the home upset, and would back them to +1.

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Nick Sterling
May 17, 2024 UTC