NCAAB Odds, Picks & Prediction for Michigan State vs Rutgers

Michigan State vs Rutgers Odds

Saturday, Feb. 4

12 p.m. ET

FOX

Michigan State Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+4.5 -115	126.5 -106o / -114u	+150

Rutgers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-4.5 -105	127.5 -106o / -114u	-182

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Michigan State heads to MSG to take on Rutgers in a crucial Big Ten Conference clash.

The Spartans have lost four of their last six games to fall to 6-5 in the Big Ten. Head coach Tom Izzo's squad did defeat Rutgers 70-57 on Jan. 19; but as this season has demonstrated, Michigan State at home is a much different team than Michigan State away from home.

Michigan State is currently projected as an 8-seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament — but a few more losses in February, and it could be on the outside, looking in.

Rutgers is tied for second place in the Big Ten after a blowout home win against Minnesota on Wednesday.

Steve Pikiell has one of the best defensive teams in the country. But the offense needs to start playing like it did on Wednesday more frequently if Rutgers has any chance of catching Purdue — or improving its seed for the NCAA tournament.

Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State's offense has been lackluster, and it has a tendency to to fall into a lot of low-value shots.

The Spartans rank 63rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) per KenPom. However, since conference play began, Michigan State's offensive efficiency has dropped to 11th in the Big Ten Conference.

Michigan State shoots midrange jumpers at the third-highest frequency in Division-I basketball. The midrange is the lowest-value shot on a basketball court … which is fine — if you're making a high percentage of those shots.

The problem: Michigan State isn't doing that. The Spartans only average 0.76 points per possession (PPP) on midrange jump shots.

That also means that the Spartans finish at the rim at an incredibly low rate — 353rd in the country, to be precise. Moreover, Michigan State converts a low percentage (58.3%) on those shot attempts at the rim — which ranks 236th in Division-I.

Michigan State has been an efficient 3-point shooting team; though, their 3-point rate is 12th in the Big Ten. The Spartans shot the lights in the Jan. 19 matchup with Rutgers. Going one step further, Michigan State shot way better than expectation.

Image via ShotQuality

The Spartans defense has played really well during conference play and is the main reason why Michigan State is still in the NCAA tournament picture.

Sparty ranks No. 1 in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) allowed during conference play. Further, MSU limits opponents to 29.6% from behind the arc.

The Spartans held Rutgers to0.90 PPP in the last meeting, because the Scarlet Knights went 2-for-17 from the 3-point line. Where Michigan State struggled was on the defensive glass: It allowed Rutgers to scoop up an absurd 18 offensive rebounds.

Michigan State also allows opponents to get to the free throw line at the second-highest rate in the Big Ten. One final red flag to note: The Spartans force one of the lowest turnover percentages in the conference.

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Every element to Rutgers' success starts at the defensive end of the floor. The Scarlet Knights are the No. 2 team in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD), per KenPom.

The reason why Rutgers is so good is because it can defend all over the court. Rutgers is top-20 in 2-point and 3-point field goal percentage allowed. The Scarlet Knights also rank 12th in Division-I in PPP allowed at the rim.

Additionally,  Rutgers forces turnovers at the second-highest rate in the Big Ten and boasts the second-lowest assist to turnover ratio.

The offensive end of the floor has been a struggle — especially shooting from beyond the arc, where the Scarlet Knights are only hitting 32.7% on the season. However, they're only taking 3s on 30% of their field goal attempts; most of Rutgers' offensive looks come at the rim, where the team shoots 60.6%.

Rutgers is also an elite offensive rebounding team with Clifford Omoruyi leading the way. Omoruyi has the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten. In the first matchup between these squads on Jan. 19, Omoruyi grabbed five of Rutgers' 18 offensive rebounds.

Michigan State vs Rutgers Betting Pick

Michigan State may have won the previous meeting, but it was one of the most fraudulent final score lines that you will see all season.

Image via ShotQuality

Rutgers had so many great looks from beyond the arc but ended up having its worst shooting day of the season.

I like the value on Rutgers -3.5 in its bid to exact revenge against Michigan State.

Pick: Rutgers -3.5

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