Ole Miss vs Oklahoma State Odds, Prediction: Don’t Put Faith in Rebels
Chris Covatta/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Boynton
Ole Miss vs Oklahoma State Odds
|Ole Miss Odds|
-105o / -115u
|Oklahoma State Odds|
-105o / -115u
In one of the final tip-offs of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, Oklahoma State welcomes Ole Miss to the Gallagher-Iba Arena Saturday night.
The Cowboys have aspirations of a trip to the NCAA Tournament, coming into this game with an 11-9 record and ranked 51st in the NET.
Meanwhile, the Rebels have struggled since entering conference play, losing seven of eight SEC contests to enter this matchup at 9-11 overall on the season.
Both squads are much better on the defensive end of the floor, which is why I’m not expecting too many points in the late-night game.
Head coach Kermit Davis had his team playing solid basketball in non-conference action, picking up wins over now-ranked Florida Atlantic, Stanford and a Temple team that just knocked off No. 3 Houston.
However, it has all fallen apart over the last month, with the only victory coming at South Carolina in the last nine games. Davis can’t point the finger at the effort defensively.
The Rebels rank inside the Top 80 in AdjD (74th), EFG% (77th) and 2-point shooting defense (29th), according to barttorvik.com, but this has not been enough to cover up all of the issues scoring the ball
To make matters worse, Ole Miss’ leading scorer, Matthew Murrell, picked up an injury in the second half of the Arkansas defeat. Murrell missed the Missouri game, and he would be a big loss here for a team already having problems offensively.
For as unimpressive as the overall record may be, Oklahoma State still has a great opportunity to receive an invite to the Big Dance, especially with the resume-building wins available in the Big 12.
Like the Rebels, the Cowboys also rely on stout defense to make the difference in games, where they are inside the Top 10 in AdjD (7th), EFG% (8th) and 2-point defense (7th). They are also 31st in the country in defending 3-pointers.
Coach Mike Boyton Jr. has also been solid at home, owning an 8-2 record and a 3-1 mark in conference play. With this game honoring the members of the Oklahoma State family who lost their lives in the 2001 plane crash, you would expect this to be a big crowd on hand.
On the offensive end of the floor, the Cowboys are led by the trio of Avery Anderson III, Kalib Boone and Quion Williams, who all average double figures.
Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State Betting Pick
The update on whether Murrell is available for the Rebels is very important for betting this matchup. Regardless if he plays or not, I still do not expect this to be a shootout.
So, my best bet is for this game to fall under the total of 128.5, which I would play to 126.5.
In the true road games this season at full strength, this same play has cashed in all but one for Ole Miss, which was a contest where Alabama scored 84 to push it over. Meanwhile, this bet would have been a winning ticket in all four conference home games for Oklahoma State.
One key for totals is the pace of play, and this is another area that points to a lower-scoring affair. The Cowboys are ranked 178th in pace by KenPom, while the Rebs are even slower at 252nd.
If Murrell does not end up suiting up, I will be playing the under on the Ole Miss team total at anything around 60. In one way of summing up how important he is to the offense, Davis does not have another player who is averaging double figures on the season.
Removing the win at South Carolina, the Rebels are averaging 57 PPG in true road games this season, and Murrell played in all of those contests. I just don’t trust this offense against elite defenses either way.
Pick: Under 128.5 (Play to 126.5)
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