NCAAB Odds, Prediction | Boise State vs Utah State Betting Guide

NCAAB Odds, Prediction | Boise State vs Utah State Betting Guide article feature image

Pictured: Dan Akin #30 and Zee Hamoda #24 of the Utah State Aggies. (Photo by Darryl Oumi/Getty Images)

Boise State vs Utah State Odds

Saturday, March 4
9 p.m. ET
MW Network
Boise State Odds
-110o / -110u
Utah State Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

After another incredible season of close finishes and parity in one of the best mid-major conferences in college basketball, Mountain West regular season play comes to a close on Saturday night with one final marquee matchup.

Boise State is still alive to win a share of the conference title if the Broncos can win on Saturday and if San Diego State loses at home to Wyoming (unlikely).

Either way, the Broncos are in a difficult spot on this road trip. Utah State has one of the best home-court advantages in the country. The Aggies are elite offensively and shoot the lights out on their home floor. This is a must-win for the Aggies' tournament hopes as it represents one last shot at a Quad 1 win before the MWC tournament.

Boise State also just had the biggest win of its season on Tuesday at home against San Diego State, when the Broncos rallied from eight down and closed on an 18-3 run to win on senior night and lock in their at-large NCAA Tournament spot.

The Broncos dominated the first matchup at home in Boise, but Utah State is primed for revenge in this regular season finale.

Boise State Broncos

Boise State and Utah State are almost mirrors of one another, which makes this matchup fascinating. The Broncos win with their defense, which is 10th in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. The offense sometimes lags behind and can go through prolonged scoring droughts or settle for difficult contested jumpers. Boise is more of an isolation and individual shot creation offense that likes to play in the half court.

Utah State is a run-and-gun offense that moves the ball extremely well, assists most of its baskets and is 13th in adjusted efficiency offensively, per KenPom. The Aggies want to be in transition and want to shoot a lot of 3s.

There may be a bit of an emotional let down coming after the absurd finish to Tuesday night's game in Boise. The Broncos were teetering on the brink until Max Rice hit consecutive threes and San Diego State failed to score in the final four minutes.

The Broncos defense does have some regression coming from the perimeter. Opponents have shot just 30% from beyond the arc against Boise this season, but the expected field goal percentage allowed is 33%, per ShotQuality.

Teams have missed a lot of unguarded jumpers against Boise State. The Broncos are 30th in the nation in PPP allowed on unguarded jumpers. The Aggies aren't going to miss often on their home floor as they are one of the most efficient half-court offenses in the nation.

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Utah State Aggies

ShotQuality grades the Aggies half-court offense as the second-best in the country. One reason to like this Aggies offense in this matchup is that they don't rely on second-chance opportunities — they're quite efficient on their first shot.

It's almost impossible to out-physical Boise's defense on the glass. The Broncos are an elite defensive rebounding team, but Utah State should make enough of its first shots to remain efficient offensively.

The Aggies rank 11th in effective field goal percentage and are also a top-20 offense at executing both pick-and-roll and ball screens. They can force Boise State to extend its defense further from the basket.

Boise State is quite good defensively at limiting transition and forcing opponents to execute in the half-court. Utah State wants to run as much as possible, but it's also seventh in the nation in PPP in half-court offense, per Synergy.

Boise State vs Utah State Betting Pick

The Aggies shot just 7-of-21 from 3 in the first meeting. Meanwhile, Boise shot 57% in that matchup. With those shooting splits, it's no surprise Boise won by 23 at home. But as this league — more so than others — consistently shows, home court is extremely valuable.

The Broncos defense is quite good, but not as good as the market is suggesting with its 10th-best rating, per KenPom.

Boise's perimeter defense gives unguarded looks and Utah State will make enough 3s to separate. If it comes down to fouls late, the Aggies have three free-throw shooters at 80% or above (two at 89%) in the back court.

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Sean Treppedi
Jun 16, 2024 UTC