Davidson vs. Dayton Odds, Picks & Predictions: NCAAB Betting Guide
Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: DaRon Holmes II
Davidson vs. Dayton Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Davidson will look to get back on track in conference play Tuesday night when they take on the Dayton Flyers for the second time this season. Davidson has lost three games in a row, and Tuesday will be its second of three road games in a row.
Last time out, the Wildcats led by as much as 12 early in the game and held a five-point lead with fewer than nine minutes left in the game. But George Mason used a 9-0 run to take a late lead and hold off the Wildcats to win by two.
The Flyers found themselves in a similar situation, but their loss was arguably much more painful.
The Flyers were 5-0 and sat atop an Atlantic-10 that is very much in a down year. They had not lost a home game in 373 days, had beaten each of their last seven opponents by double digits and had a four point lead and the ball with 30 second left to play. And then VCU forced two turnovers and scored five points in 12 seconds to win.
The devastation from that loss is sure to have an effect on this Flyers team. The only question is how will they respond?
The Flyers aren't the only ones coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder. The Defending conference champion Wildcats have only had one losing season since joining the A-10 eight years ago. At no point in time have they ever lost four games in a row. Not only do they bring a three-game losing streak into this matchup, but they are 13th in the conference ahead of only Loyola Chicago and Saint Joseph's.
Matched up against an elite Dayton team, their chances avoiding that four-game losing streak seem slim. To do so, they'll need to improve tremendously at both ends of the floor.
On offense, the Wildcats have found the majority of their success via the mid-range. Davidson is hitting 41.9% from mid-range but taking a much higher percentage of its shots at the basket. If the Wildcats can pull up rather than drive in on a Flyers team that's been elite around the rim — limiting teams to just 52.9% — it could be their first step to keeping this one within reach.
When it comes to defense, Dayton's slow pace will already play to the Wildcats' advantage. Dayton ranks 339th in adjusted tempo and is outside the top 300 in field goal attempt per game. The Wildcats will need to pressure the Flyers and force turnovers to have success against a team so methodical offensively.
Dayton has struggled with ball security since conference play began, seeing their turnovers percentage increase from 18% to 19.7%. Davidson is forcing opposing teams to turn the ball over on 17% of possessions. Slowing this game down and pressuring on defense will be the Wildcats' best chance at getting an upper-hand on the Flyers.
The Flyers never trailed in the first meeting between these two teams earlier this season. The Wildcats struggled from everywhere on the floor, specifically from 3-point range, hitting just 19% as they racked up 21 fouls and sent Dayton to the line 30 times.
Against VCU, the Flyers struggled to draw fouls and had issues of their own with ball security, turning the ball over 18 times. I fully expect those areas to be a point of emphasis for Anthony Grant this time out against Davidson.
Another major point of emphasis for this Flyers team will be 3-point shooting. Through their first five conference games the Flyers are in the 99th percentile nationally on above-the-break 3-pointers, hitting 41.1%.
Davidson has allowed teams to hit 34.2% above the break and has been even worse as of late giving up 44.7% over its last five games.
Davidson vs. Dayton Betting Pick
Both of these teams come into this game with a chip on their shoulders. But at the end of the day I think Dayton is the better team at both ends of the floor and comes away from this one one convincingly. Davidson has also been significantly worse when it comes to forcing turnovers on the road.
Back the Flyers as high as an 11 point favorite over the Flyers on Tuesday night.
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