Louisville vs. Florida State Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Over/Under

Louisville vs. Florida State Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Over/Under article feature image

Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: FSU guard Caleb Mills (4).

Louisville vs. Florida State Odds

Saturday, Dec. 10
1 p.m. ET
ACC Network
Louisville Odds
-105o / -115u
Florida State Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Louisville Cardinals and Florida State Seminoles — two teams that rank outside the top 300 when it comes to Effective Field Goal Percentage — will square off on Saturday.

Both Louisville and Florida State are also worse than 300th when it comes to 2-point percentage. Louisville ranks in the bottom-25 nationally in 3-point percentage, but Florida State isn't exactly shooting the lights out either, hitting just 31.8% from deep.

No this isn't a bottom of the barrel selection; this is ACC basketball in 2022. Louisville and Florida State have played 18 games combined so far this season, and only one has resulted in a win for either team.

It's been 262 days since Kenny Payne was announced as the head coach of Louisville. Now, eight games into the season and 0-1 into conference play, can he pull the old two birds, one stone trick with his first overall win and first conference win in the same game?

Let's dive into college basketball odds, picks and predictions for Louisville vs. Florida State.

Louisville Cardinals

Not only has Louisville's 0-8 start been its worst since the 1940-41 season, but it has now set the record for the worst start by an ACC team since the conference was founded in 1953.

Louisville is averaging just 57.4 points while allowing opponents to rack up 73.9 per game. The Cardinals' problems begin on the offensive end, where the only shooting percentage they post inside the top 300 is at the free-throw line (74.1%, 79th).

Things aren't much better on defense for Louisville. Its slow pace of play has limited shots, but teams are still hitting 48.4% from the floor against it. The Cards have actually been decent defending the perimeter, holding teams to just 33.7% from beyond the arc.

The good news for Louisville is Florida State shoots the ball almost as poorly as it does.

The bad news? One of the Cardinals' few advantages over teams this season — their height — will be null and void against a Seminoles team ranked second nationally in average height.

Florida State Seminoles

Things couldn't be going worse for Leonard Hamilton in year 21, but his team does have one win, which is more than can be said for Louisville. Over the years, the names and faces have changed, but Florida State basketball has remained the same.

The Seminoles are always among the tallest in the nation, balanced with players who dominate in the paint and a few sharp shooters on the perimeter. This season's Florida State team has the measurements, but comparing it to past teams outside of that seems almost disrespectful.

And while I'm not saying it's a switch that is going to eventually flip for this Seminoles team, there is talent on this team and a lot of potential, if they could just stop taking mid-range shots.

Florida State comes in at the 95th percentile in mid-range, 2-point shot attempts. Why is that a problem you ask? Because the only place the Noles have been worse on the floor is 3s above the break.

Image Credit: CBB Analytics

However, should they stay committed to being an awful mid-range shooting team that can't stop taking mid-range shots, it might actually produce a win against Louisville.

The Cardinals have allowed opponents to shoot 39.4% from the mid-range, which should be just enough to make the Seminoles think they've found their rhythm and keep this painful trend alive.

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Louisville vs. Florida State Betting Pick

It was Nov. 24. That's the day I set a reminder on my phone for when these two teams would meet.

Louisville had just been demolished by Cincinnati the previous day and Florida State lost in wire-to-wire to fashion against Siena, never having a lead at any point in the game. That was the Noles' second loss of the season to a team ranked 200th or worse.

That's when I knew this game had potential to be the worst 40 minutes of basketball I may ever watch in my entire life.

Both of these teams have too many problems and issues to list, but all of those are a result of one root cause that they share: a lack of a true point guard.

You hear it more and more: Basketball is becoming a position-less sport; no one plays a set position in basketball anymore. Maybe so, but that only works if multiple players on the team can play multiple positions and are good enough to do so.

With all due respect, multiple players on both of these teams are struggling to find success at one position. I don't have enough confidence in either team to back them regardless of the number.

If I was forced to pick, I'd back Florida State, but the Cardinals are bound to cover a spread at some point, so I'll be staying away.

Instead, I'll put my money on the one thing both of these teams have been consistent in all year: being terrible scorers.

Back the under in this matchup at 130 or better.

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