Georgia vs Alabama Odds, Prediction | How to Bet SEC Clash
Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images. Pictured: Alabama’s Brandon Miller.
Georgia vs Alabama Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
This is a matchup of two SEC teams at very different points in their seasons.
Alabama has its sights set on a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament as it attempts to hold off Texas A&M for the SEC regular-season title. The Crimson Tide will also be attempting to bounce back after falling to Tennessee, 68-59, on Wednesday. Alabama has not lost back-to-back games thus far.
On the other side, Georgia has built some recent momentum despite not currently being projected to make the NCAA Tournament field. In their past two games, the Bulldogs defended their home floor by defeating LSU and Kentucky, which have both had their fair share of issues.
To determine if Alabama can respond after a loss for the fourth time, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Georgia vs. Alabama.
Mike White’s first season at the helm for the Bulldogs has been a slog in conference play. Georgia lost six of its last seven SEC games before putting together back-to-back wins over Kentucky and a broken LSU squad.
Unless the Bulldogs can make a serious run in the SEC Tournament, their postseason hopes are likely dashed. This motivation factor will come into play against an Alabama team trying to finish strong atop the SEC leaderboard.
Many of Georgia’s struggles have come on the offensive end. The Bulldogs rank 156th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, struggling to find high-percentage looks and create shots outside of one-on-one matchups.
With an assist rate of just 50.1% (202nd), the Bulldogs have a tendency to try and win one-on-one matchups. This offensive style will not be effective against an Alabama defense that ranks second nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed at 41.2%.
One of the big takeaways from Alabama's win over Mississippi State was Charles Bediako's defense anchoring performance.
Based on the shots taken, Tolu Smith was expected to score 10 more points, but repeatedly failed to beat Bediako in the post. pic.twitter.com/iGtsEuFuD3
— ShotQuality (@Shot_Quality) December 30, 2022
Alabama also allows opponents to score just 44.3% of their points of an assist, the 42nd-lowest rate in the country.
The only silver lining for this Georgia offense is its ability to get to the charity stripe. The Bulldogs score 23.1% of their points from the free-throw line, which is the 10th-highest rate nationally
Although Alabama allows 21.9% of opponents’ points to come from the line, this will not be enough to keep up with an explosive Tide offense looking to bounce back.
Even with its loss to Tennessee on Wednesday, Alabama is still in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
In order to stay in this position, the Crimson Tide will need to bounce back on their home floor, where they’ve excelled. After their last two losses to Gonzaga and Oklahoma, Alabama responded at home by posting 20- and 57-point victories, respectively.
The offensive explosions are likely to continue against a Georgia team that has struggled to defend as a unit. The Bulldogs rank 97th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, allowing teams to score 55.1% of their points off an assist (280th).
If there’s one weak point for the Crimson Tide on offense, it’s their ability to finish at the rim. Bama ranks 131st in near-proximity field-goal percentage and sees 12.2% of its shots get blocked.
Fortunately for Alabama, rim protection has been an area Georgia has struggled in, allowing 54.7% of points on the interior and blocking only 7.4% of shots.
These struggles inside the 3-point line don’t just stop at the rim. Georgia is allowing teams to shoot 38.69% from midrange, an area where Alabama has been elite. The Crimson Tide connect on 45.7% of midrange attempts, the 12th-highest rate in the nation.
Expect Alabama to get back on track offensively against an ill-equipped Georgia defense.
Georgia vs Alabama Betting Pick
You have to feel for Georgia, which has just started to build a hint of momentum to close out conference play.
It now matches up with an Alabama team that’s as motivated as ever to make a statement on its home floor. The Crimson Tide rank 23rd nationally in home-court advantage, according to Haslametrics, and all of Alabama’s four losses have come away from Coleman Coliseum.
Alabama will find ways to create on the interior, thus opening up its outside shooting.
On the other end, Georgia’s offense is averaging only 69.9 points per game, which will not be enough to keep up with a highly-motivated Alabama squad.
Pick: Alabama -20 or Better
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