College Basketball Odds & Picks for Indiana vs. Michigan State: Value Lies on Total

College Basketball Odds & Picks for Indiana vs. Michigan State: Value Lies on Total article feature image

Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: AJ Hoggard (Michigan State)

  • Michigan State hosts Indiana looking to snap its two-game losing streak.
  • The Hoosiers have also lost two straight games to Illinois and Northwestern.
  • Kody Malstrom breaks it all down below below.

Indiana vs. Michigan State Odds

Saturday, Feb. 12
3:30 p.m. ET
Indiana Odds
-110o / -110u
Michigan State Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Listen. There are a LOT of college basketball teams to cover. It's just simply impossible to get a grip on every team, and sometimes some schools fall through the cracks in my radar.

To me, Indiana was one of those teams this year.

I didn't give the Hoosiers much thought before the season, and when I finally decided to put my attention on them, they sat out five players — with three of them being starters — as an off-the-court punishment for team violations.

So, let's try this again.

With Michigan State on a two-game losing streak, the Spartans host the Hoosiers in what is expected to be a tight one in East Lansing.

Will Michigan State be able to get back on track? Or will the Hoosiers look to play spoiler and add onto the Spartans' first losing streak of the season?

Let's find out.

Indiana Hoosiers

Even with a roster that was drastically shorthanded, the Hoosiers still played a respectable game against Northwestern, losing 59-51.

The Hoosiers' legs were tired and heavy, and the offense hit a wall hard in the second half, an issue that they've been facing all season.

Luckily for them, they get back one of their starters and third-leading scorer in guard Xavier Johnson, who averages 10.6 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game.

Indiana will benefit from his return, as it will need to find a more balanced offense as we near March.

While the offense has sputtered, it's the defense that has led Indiana to success. Ranking 15th in AdjD, Indiana has been one of the tougher units to score on.

Opponents average 64 points against the Hoosiers and shoot just 38% from the field on them.

A big reason for their defensive success is star big man Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is averaging 2.6 blocks per game. He makes life down low a nightmare for opposing big men.

If TJD can avoid foul trouble and the offense can find some scoring production, the Hoosiers will be a tough out come conference tournament time.

Michigan State Spartans

It's never easy to win at the RAC, and it sure isn't easy to beat Wisconsin.

With that being said, Michigan State's first losing streak of the season should not be focused on too heavily.

Michigan State is still a formidable team, with 4-to-6 seed potential come March. The Spartans are balanced all around — ranking 34th in AdjO and 52nd in AdjD — with two big wins against Michigan and Wisconsin in their pocket.

Is it enough to dethrone conference favorites Illinois and Purdue come conference tournament time? That's tough to say.

While their metrics are good, the Spartans are missing a go-to offensive star to take them to the next level.

Michigan State currently plays nine deep, with only two scoring in double figures. The Spartans shoot it very efficiently from deep — 38.8% from 3, which is second in the Big Ten.

Their scoring pace dips to around the middle of the pact — sixth in Big Ten play at 73.2 points per game and fifth in field goal percentage at 46.2%.

While efficient, the numbers show the Spartans do not score at the highest of clips, and can be prone to be ice cold if their absurd 3-point percentage does not fall on a given night.

Indiana vs. Michigan State Betting Pick

This is sneakily one of the biggest games on the slate. The Spartans look to bounce back after a two-game skid, and Indiana is looking to round back into form with their suspended players back. The Hoosiers are also attempting to bolster their March Madness positioning.

Michigan State's offensive success has revolved around efficiency, a metric that Indiana will look to throw havoc at with their top notch defensive play. The Spartans already struggle to score at high volume, relying on good shooting nights to pull out wins.

It's also no secret that Indiana's offense is as anemic as it gets, even with the return of Johnson. Look for the Hoosiers to once again rely on their defensive intensity to disrupt the Spartans and stall out their possessions.

It's also an added benefit that both teams play around the national average in pace, with neither wanting to get uncomfortable and play up-tempo.

If either half-court offense hits a skid, we will be in prime shape to hit the under.

Pick: Under 134

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Doug Ziefel
Jun 21, 2024 UTC