College Basketball Odds, Pick, Prediction: Iowa State vs. Texas Tech (Tuesday, Jan. 18)
Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Adonis Arms (Texas Tech)
- Iowa State and Texas Tech face each other for the second time this season.
- The Cyclones won the first meeting in Ames when the Red Raiders were at less than full strength.
- Anthony Dabbundo explains why the Red Raiders will get revenge this time around in Lubbock.
Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Odds
|Iowa State Odds|
-110o / -110u
|Texas Tech Odds|
-110o / -110u
It’s revenge time for Texas Tech after the Red Raiders loss in Ames to Iowa State on Jan. 5. The Red Raiders suffered their second defeat in conference on Saturday at Kansas State after grabbing three consecutive wins in the same week against Kansas, Baylor and Oklahoma State.
It was a prime letdown spot for the Red Raiders, and it showed with an ugly offensive showing against an underrated and desperate Kansas State team.
Iowa State’s offense went nuclear against Texas with a 79-point showing, as Gabe Kalscheur scored 22 points on 6-of-12 shooting. The Cyclones continued to run hot from the perimeter on offense.
The Cyclones barely survived the first meeting against Tech despite a favorable spot against an undermanned team. The Red Raiders nearly pulled off the comeback and should have covered the spread on the road.
The Iowa State offense is running red hot the last few games despite the Cyclones being just 1-2 in the last three. The Cyclones scored eight, 13 and 13 points over expected in each of their last three — losses to Oklahoma and Kansas and a win against Texas.
Most of that has come from the hot hand of Kalscheur, who has made 10-of-21 from 3 in the last two games despite being a sub 32% shooter from long range the last two seasons.
The offense still has major turnover issues and relies a lot on isolation and mid-range shots, which are very hard to pull off against an elite Texas Tech iso and interior defense.
The Cyclones are 290th in spacing and 241st in rim and 3 rate, which suggests some potential trouble if the difficult contested 3s aren’t falling for them. If you go back to the first meeting, they managed just 51 points and still won. However, the Cyclones only had four points in the first 10 minutes of the second half.
Tech head coach Mark Adams made some adjustments and held down ISU, and I’m expecting more of the same from the opening bell on Tuesday night.
Chris Beard’s no-middle defense that took away the paint and forced teams to become jump shooters revolutionized the Texas Tech program in recent years and turned the Red Raiders into a consistently elite perimeter defense.
Many expected that to drop off once Beard departed for Texas, but Adams has stepped in and has done a stellar job thus far.
You will not score in the paint against Texas Tech.
Last 7 games:
– Gonzaga: 16 paint points (season-low)
– Eastern Washington: 4 (season-low)
– Alabama St: 8 (season-low)
– Iowa St: 6 (season-low)
– Kansas: 18 (season-low)
– Baylor: 22 (season-low)
– OK State: 20 (season-low)
— Jared Berson (@JaredBerson) January 14, 2022
You can’t score on the interior against this team at all, as Iowa State showed when it mustered just six points in the paint in the first meeting.
The Cyclones will be forced to shoot from the perimeter in this game if it wants any chance of remaining competitive with the Red Raiders.
Terrence Shannon Jr. only played 18 minutes and scored just two points in his return against Kansas State last weekend, but he should be more integrated into the team following his long-term absence.
His consistent double-digit scoring in about 25 minutes per game last year would be a much-needed boost for a Red Raiders offense that has struggled to consistently score this year.
When the Red Raiders play at their best, they’ve beaten Tennessee, Baylor and Kansas. They were naturally not there in a brutal let down spot at Kansas State, but this team is elite against ball screens and isolation and can finish at the rim.
The ShotQuality data suggested they should have won by four in Ames, and when you flip the script and go to Lubbock — where they’ve been dominant all year — it’s hard to see Iowa State generating much offense at all.
Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick
The market on this game seems like an overreaction when you consider that the Red Raiders were five-point underdogs just two weeks ago when the two teams met in Ames.
Now, they’re 7.5-point favorites. But home court advantage is worth a lot more in this matchup than average when you consider the Hilton magic in Ames is notoriously difficult to play against. Lubbock is ranked as the fourth-biggest HCA in the country, per KenPom.
Texas Tech played that first meeting without two key players in Kevin McCullar and Shannon Jr. The Red Raiders only played seven guys in the game, only made 3-of-17 from 3 and won the overall quality of shots battle.
With the Cyclones coming off of an impressive win against Texas and the Red Raiders expecting to bounce back from a loss to Kansas State over the weekend, it’s a great spot for Texas Tech to roll.
The defense will take away the middle and the paint and force ISU to shoot, which the Cyclones can’t do consistently.
I’d play Texas Tech to -8 or better.
Pick: Texas Tech -7.5 (play to -8)
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