Michigan State vs Nebraska Odds, Prediction: Back the Home Team
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Griesel
Michigan State vs Nebraska Odds
|Michigan State Odds
-115o / -105u
-115o / -105u
Michigan State looks to rebound from Saturday's heartbreaker when it travels to Nebraska to face the Cornhuskers on Tuesday night.
In one of the craziest regular season basketball games that we've seen in quite sometime, the Spartans held a 13-point lead against Iowa with roughly 90 seconds left to play, and wound up losing 112-106 in OT.
Nebraska is playing its best basketball of the season. The Cornhuskers are riding a four-game winning streak, including an impressive 10-point win at Rutgers two weeks ago. Nebraska has been on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament field virtually all season, but a victory here will certainly help its chances of crashing the gates at the Big Ten Tournament next week.
It's tough to figure how the Spartans will rebound after shooting the lights out on Saturday, but we definitely have a talent mismatch on tap here. Let's uncover the right betting side by breaking down both teams.
It was astonishing to see the Spartans collapse in the way they did on Saturday. They finished the game 11-of-15 from beyond the arc (73%), and they also hit 31-of-36 of their free throws. Just an absolutely spectacular offensive performance, but yet nothing to show for it in the win column.
I hate to beat a dead horse, but the shooting display by the Spartans was something I never expected. The Spartans are 304th in 3PA/game, so to sit there and watch them practically shoot the Hawkeyes out of their own gym was not something I even contemplated. But, this is something to monitor heading into this matchup, as some serious shooting regression is presumably looming.
I do like the matchup for Sparty on the defensive end in this particular matchup. Nebraska doesn't bring a ton to the table, with struggles at the charity stripe and beyond the arc notably. The Spartans elite 3-point defense and slow tempo on offense should give Nebraska some issues on offense throughout the evening.
Despite the terrific shooting display on Saturday, the Spartans still rank 360th in rim & 3 rate. They also have struggled forcing turnovers on defense, also ranking near the bottom of the rankings among all teams in the country.
The bottom line is this: as much as I love the scoring tandem of Tyson Walker and A.J Hoggard, this team is running so pure offensively that something has to give eventually.
I never would have imagined that I was going to talk about Nebraska making its way into the bubble conversation in late February. It's still a longshot the Cornhuskers make the NCAA Tournament, but just the fact they can hop in the mix is all in due credit to Fred Hoiberg. He has done a terrific job with a team that was projected to finish at the bottom of the Big Ten standings.
What's been clicking for Nebraska as of late has been its terrific home-court advantage and offense. Over the last six games, the Cornhuskers have scored 70+ points, which has been a big part of their four-game winning streak. Despite their poor shooting from beyond the arc, Nebraska ranks 93rd in rim & 3 rate, so it continues to get some good looks on the offensive end.
In a matchup where the tempo will be presumably slow, I like the Cornhuskers chances to hang tough with the Spartans, especially considering they won't be able to replicate their last shooting performance.
Michigan State vs Nebraska Betting Pick
I think this is a great spot for Nebraska, as it has been really tough to beat at home. I think the defense will be fueled by the home crowd, and the offense will do just enough to at least hang tough until the final minutes.
I also think this is a horrible spot for Sparty. I can't imagine the team has psychologically recovered from Saturday's game, and heading into a tough road environment doesn't help their case either.
With the shooting regression looming for Michigan State, I am giddy that we're getting 3.5 points with the Huskers here and I think they'll keep rolling here at home. Roll Corn.
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