College Basketball Odds, Picks, Prediction for Ohio State vs Michigan (Sunday, Feb. 5)
Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Zed Key (Ohio State)
Ohio State vs Michigan Odds
|Ohio State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Ohio State and Michigan will battle it out for the 190th time in what is one of the most historic rivalries in all of college basketball. The first meeting between these two took place on February 18, 1909, with the Buckeyes winning 29-22.
Overall, Ohio State owns a 107-82 advantage in the series, including winning two of the last three meetings.
This season has been somewhat of a disappointment for both teams, as Michigan sits in a six-way tie for third place in the Big Ten standings (6-5) while Ohio State in fifth (3-8).
Additionally, both Ohio State and Michigan have lost five of their last six Big Ten games combined.
In order to pick which team will use this rivalry matchup to build momentum, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Ohio State vs. Michigan.
Despite having an offense that ranks 14th nationally in adjusted efficiency, the Buckeyes have lost three straight in conference play to Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin.
These losses are the result of facing three defenses that are effective at preventing penetration. Illinois and Indiana both rank inside the top 20 in 2-point percentage defense, while Wisconsin ranks 23rd nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
These types of interior defenses are detrimental to an Ohio State offense scoring 56% of its points on the interior, the 48th-highest rate in the country.
This ability to create penetration should see some progression against a Michigan defense allowing 54.4% of its opponents’ points to come from 2-point range on 49.1% shooting.
In addition, Michigan is allowing its opponents to shoot 60% on near-proximity attempts, according to Haslametrics. This is an area Ohio State has been effective at, converting 65.4% of its near-proximity attempts (the 25th-highest rate in the country).
Overall, look for Ohio State to get back on track on the offensive end against a Michigan defense struggling to prevent penetration.
Michigan was able to prevent a three-game losing streak by defeating Northwestern on the road, 68-51. The Wolverines had three players in double figures and were once again led by Hunter Dickinson, who had a team high 19 points.
Michigan will now face an Ohio State defense that has been underwhelming. The Buckeyes have only been able to create turnovers on 16.7% of their opponents’ possessions, 285th nationally.
This results in Ohio State giving up 67.6 points per game, which has ballooned up to 73.3 in its last three games.
This inability to create pressure will be highlighted against a Michigan team that is taking care of the basketball. The Wolverines turn the ball over on 14% of their offensive possessions, the sixth-lowest rate in the country.
Overall, Ohio State does not start a player over 6-foot-8 and as a result, will have to come up with a game plan on how to guard Dickinson in the post.
Ohio State’s defense has been effective in the post this season, limiting a similar prospect in Rutgers’ Clifford Omoruyi to 14 points on just 4-of-10 shooting.
In the end, I believe Ohio State will be able to do enough on the defensive end to allow for its offense to be a significant factor.
Ohio State vs Michigan Betting Pick
This is a desperation spot for an Ohio State team that has lost three straight games in Big Ten play. Now the Buckeyes match up with a Michigan team that’s showing it’s vulnerable when it comes preventing penetration defensively.
This defensive weakness will be exposed against an Ohio State team thriving on its ability to get near-proximity shots given its ability to get to the rim.
Overall, look for Ohio State to get back on track as it finally faces a defense suited to its offensive playing style.
Pick: Ohio State +2.5 (Play to -1.5)
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