College Basketball Odds, Pick, Prediction: Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech (Thursday, Jan. 13)
Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Obanor and Bryson Williams (Texas Tech)
- After beating Kansas and Baylor in back-to-back games, Texas Tech hosts Oklahoma State in Lubbock.
- The Red Raiders have impressed, especially defensively, under Mark Adams.
- D.J. James breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Odds
|Oklahoma State Odds|
-110o / -110u
|Texas Tech Odds|
-110o / -110u
Texas Tech has impressed much of the college basketball world by shocking both Kansas and Baylor in the last week. No undefeated team remains in the NCAA, which is pretty astounding.
The Red Raiders will host Oklahoma State, which comes off of an embarrassing loss at West Virginia by 10.
These are two of the top defenses in the country, and two of the sloppiest offenses. The combination of these two should lead to an under play.
The Cowboys have an abysmal offense. They rank 149th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 224th in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom.
They also turn the ball over at an alarming rate of 21.4%. Texas Tech is 15th in defensive turnover percentage, so it will likely take advantage of the Cowboys’ lackluster offensive approach.
The Red Raiders have four active players — assuming Terrence Shannon Jr. is still out — averaging at least a steal each game. This should put pressure on Avery Anderson III and Bryce Williams, who both average more than 2.5 giveaways per game.
In addition, the Cowboys may play at a fast pace, but this does not mean they will make many shots. They do not attempt many 3s because they will not sink them. In fact, 3s only make up 22.3% of Oklahoma State’s scoring distribution this season.
The Cowboys only shoot 29.2% from deep, and Keylan Boone is the only player getting consistent playing time while shooting over 35% from deep.
This means they will need to get the ball inside. Unfortunately, the Cowboys are only shooting a touch over 50%, which is about average amongst NCAA teams.
Texas Tech is also phenomenal at defending inside the arc, only allowing opponents to shoot 44.3% from 2-point range.
The Red Raiders excel in the defensive department. Even if they are not as poor of an offensive team as the Cowboys, they still play at an exceedingly slow pace. They rank 314th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, and take up 18.2 seconds per possession on average.
Now, they are not as weak as Oklahoma State is from the perimeter, but the Red Raiders do prefer to get the ball inside. Only 27.7% of their points come from beyond the arc this year. Plus, they only shoot 33.2% collectively from downtown.
Bryson Williams, Kevin McCullar and Adonis Arms all shoot over 35% from behind the 3-point arc, so the Cowboys will need to defend them tightly.
The Red Raiders do have a bit of a size advantage and therefore a rebounding edge. They grab 37.9% of the boards on offense and 24.1% on defense.
Oklahoma State rebounds at a 33.1% clip on the offensive end, but it is brutal on defense (31.4%). This will likely allow Texas Tech multiple chances at scoring on the offensive end.
Finally, the Red Raiders cannot make their free throws. They are shooting 66.1% from the strike, while the Cowboys have the same issue at 66.0%.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick
Neither team can hit their 3s or free throws. Both have the length to rebound, but Texas Tech could have a slight edge in that department.
As long as Texas Tech controls the pace of this game, it should hit on the under.
Take the under with the Red Raiders at home at 128.5 and play it to 126.5.
With Shannon Jr. on the sidelines and a tough spot to bet the Red Raiders after massive wins, staying away from a side may be the wise move.