NCAAB Betting Preview for San Diego State vs. Boise State
Sam Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: Naje Smith and Tyson Degenhart
San Diego State vs Boise State Odds
|San Diego State Odds|
-115o / -105u
|Boise State Odds|
-115o / -105u
We have a huge Mountain West showdown on Tuesday evening, as the San Diego State Aztecs will travel to ExtraMile Arena to take on the Boise State Broncos.
Although both of these teams seem to have punched their ticket to the Big Dance, the Aztecs will look to secure the Mountain West regular season title with a road victory.
Boise State can spoil those plans for at least another few days by pulling out a victory here. The Broncos are coming off a tough loss at San Jose State, so I think it’s safe to say they may have been looking ahead to this particular spot.
As for the Aztecs, they are coming off a thrilling victory on Saturday evening as Lamont Butler drilled a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to shock New Mexico on the road. They won comfortably in the last matchup against Boise State, 72-52 back on February 3rd.
Both of these teams seem to be evenly matched on paper and the oddsmakers agree. Let’s take a deeper dive to uncover some betting value.
There’s a lot to love about the Aztecs, and they’ve been one of the most consistent teams throughout the entire country. With a 44th-ranked offensive efficiency and rank of 13th in defensive efficiency, it’s safe to say they fit the mold of a team primed to make a deep run.
The Aztecs are also extremely deep, as they rank inside the top 50 in bench minutes. This will definitely play a part in this matchup, as Boise’s rotation is much, much thinner.
As much as I love this Aztecs team, there are a few areas of concern moving forward that can hurt them as early as this game. They rank 339th in Rim & 3 Rate, as well as a -16.47 in record-luck, which suggests they are due for some regression.
I think this matchup will hinge on their ability to contain the Broncos from beyond the arc, which they were able to do in the last matchup between these two teams, when the Broncos were just 3-for-18 from 3-point range.
Leon Rice’s squad will be looking to redeem themselves from their poor performance the last time these two teams played. I mentioned how thin this Broncos roster is, but man can they play. This might be one of the most underrated teams in the country thanks in great part to their terrific defense.
The Broncos rank 10th in defensive efficiency, as they will be able to counter the stifling Aztecs defense with their own. The Broncos are also top-20 in multiple categories, including opponent rebound rate and field goal percentage. The three-point shooting in this contest will definitely determine the outcome. Even as good as the Aztecs are at defending the three-ball, I think the Broncos should provide a better performance this time around.
Just like the Aztecs, the Broncos also have some negative regression coming for them. Per Shot Quality, they hold a -20.80 record-luck and a pretty astonishing 256th Rim & 3 Rate. Fortunately enough for them, they’re facing a team that could be facing similar type regression, so this may not play a factor until down the road.
San Diego State vs Boise State Betting Pick
This is a very tough handicap given how much I love both of these Mountain West squads. However, I think Boise State has a lot more working in its favor. I definitely think the Broncos were overlooking San Jose State this past weekend, and I expect them to come out with a much more focused effort in front of a home crowd.
As for the Aztecs, emotions are probably at a high after that dramatic buzzer beater victory over the Lobos. Even though they have not officially clinched the Mountain West regular season title, it seems a foregone conclusion they will end up with the title with Wyoming on deck.
Another interesting angle is that despite the 20-point victory against the Broncos earlier this month, they open as a small 1-point underdog here. Anticipating the recency bias of the market, I believe they will also be heavily backed in this spot.
I think the Broncos will come out focused, and will do just enough on offense to pull out this home victory. I’m starting to really like this spot for them, and I believe they will get the job done.
Pick: Boise State -1.5 or Better
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