College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: St. Bonaventure vs. Dayton (Tuesday, Jan. 18)
Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Malachi Smith (Dayton)
- St. Bonaventure's seniors have never beaten Dayton, so is this finally the Bonnies' time to shine?
- The Bonnies are coming off their best offensive game of the season against VCU.
- Keg previews the Atlantic 10 clash and explains why he's backing the Flyers.
St. Bonaventure vs. Dayton Odds
|St. Bonaventure Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
After a postponement on Jan. 2, one of the most anticipated A-10 matchups of the season will occur on Tuesday night, as the St. Bonaventure Bonnies will travel to Dayton to take on the Flyers.
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Flyers. They’ve had some big wins — such as knocking off Kansas on a neutral court — but they’ve also suffered some confusing losses — most recently losing outright at home to VCU as a 4.5-point favorite.
The Bonnies, meanwhile, haven’t quite lived up to expectations. They were a preseason top-25 team that lost to 102nd-ranked Northern Iowa and just last week had to go to OT with La Salle.
But the Bonnies were coming back from a 25-day COVID layoff when they faced the Explorers. And in their last game, they looked maybe the best they have all season, blowing out the same VCU team that took down Dayton, 73-53.
St. Bonaventure may look like the better team as of late, but there’s another factor to consider, as well. Dayton has won six straight games in the series. The Bonnies have also lost the last 10 games against the Flyers in Dayton.
And while St. Bonaventure in all likelihood could get an at-large bid even if it doesn’t win the A-10, the same can’t be said for Dayton, yet.
Dayton needs to win this game if it wants to be a serious contender to win the A-10, and a win over the Bonnies would go a long way for its resume.
Will the Bonnies be able to steal a win from the Flyers, or will it be another notch on the home streak over the Bonnies for Dayton?
St. Bonaventure played its best game of the year against VCU the last time out. The Bonnies shot 43.1% from the floor en route to putting up 73 points. It was the most points the Rams — who rank seventh in scoring defense nationally — have given up this season.
On offense, the Bonnies have been averaging 72.3 points per game behind a strong group of seniors in Kyle Lofton, Dominick Welch and Osun Osunniyi.
All three have been starters since they were freshman, led the team to the A-10 championship game in 2019 and won the A-10 regular season and tournament titles in 2021. They also combine to average 36.9 points per game.
St. Bonaventure is one of the more experienced teams in college basketball because of these three, as it ranks 20th in this category, per KenPom. This will absolutely be a factor against Dayton, which is the least experienced team in the country at 358th.
On defense, the Bonnies haven’t been awful, but they don’t compare to what Dayton has been able to produce. St. Bonaventure is allowing teams to score 67.9 points per game, and opposing teams are also hitting 34.5% of their 3s.
But one area the Bonnies have had success is around the basket, pulling down 36.6 rebounds per game on average. They only allow opponents to record an offensive rebound on 25.8% of opportunities.
They are also seventh in the country in block percentage, due in large part to Osunniyi, who is averaging 3.1 per contest.
The Flyers’ biggest strength may be their defense, but the offense has the ability to keep up with the Bonnies. The Flyers are averaging just 2.3 points per game less than the Bonnies at 70.
They aren’t far off on rebounds either, with just 1.4 less per contest than St. Bonaventure.
The Flyers may not have the experience similar to the Bonnies, but they do have much more depth on the bench. In their last game against Duquesne, Dayton played a nine-man rotation. They also rank 99th in the country in bench minutes.
On defense, the Flyers are 29th in the country, allowing opposing teams to average just 62.5 points per contest.
The Bonnies rely on a majority of their points to come around the basket, but Dayton has excelled in that area. 54% of the Bonnies’ points come from 2-point shots, while the Flyers have limited teams to just 46.9% on 2s.
St. Bonaventure vs. Dayton Betting Pick
St. Bonaventure has a lot of seniors on its roster, and none of them have beaten Dayton. While it would be an amazing feat and a great way to end their careers, I don’t think they will be able to pull it off.
St. Bonaventure looked amazing against VCU — which beat Dayton — but it had one of its best shooting performances of the year. The Bonnies are still shaking some rust off from a 25-day layoff, and Dayton’s defense can and should limit the Bonnies.
Because of that I’m laying the points with the Flyers.