College Basketball Odds & Picks: Three Man Weave’s 3 Best Bets for Monday, Including Florida vs. Ole Miss
Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyree Appleby (Florida)
Many of us are still recovering from what was a wild NFL weekend and a long Saturday in college basketball. However, the schedule doesn’t stop, and the opportunity to land value doesn’t end.
Jim Root of Three Man Weave has you covered on that end for Monday night’s slate in college hoops, including one SEC showdown and two mid-major affairs.
So, check out Jim’s three best bets below as he tries to help you formulate your betting card coming off an epic weekend.
Monday’s College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Florida vs. Ole Miss
Even after a weekend of SEC mayhem — most notably Kentucky/Auburn — we actually have a rare Monday SEC game.
Florida has impressively won two straight without star center Colin Castleton, and it sounds like he will miss a third game.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, has been playing without key guard Jarkel Joiner, who will also miss this one.
Those absences are a key part of this handicap. Castleton is one of the best rim protectors in the country, so you might think “over” without him. However, his backups are solid interior defenders. Jason Jitoboh is immense inside, while CJ Felder is an athletic and disruptive defender.
Neither guy, however, provides anywhere near the offensive presence that Castleton does. He’s an elite finisher inside and a terrific roll man in ball screens.
Per Hoop-Explorer, Florida scores 1.13 points per possession with him on the court, compared to just 106.5 without him (adjusted for competition).
He also can run in transition, something Jitoboh struggles with. Unsurprisingly, Florida’s slowest game of the season was its last outing against Vandy — only 58 possessions. The Gators’ slowest game with Castleton on the court had 64 possessions.
The Ole Miss offensive splits without Joiner are not quite as stark, but they do help. With him, the Rebels score 1.01 PPP. Without him, it drops slightly to 0.99 PPP (Hoop-Explorer).
Freshman point guard Daeshun Ruffin has the typical issues of young maestros: turnovers and inefficient shooting.
Lastly, Ole Miss coach Kermit Davis will frequently change defenses, something Florida has not seen this season.
Per Synergy, the Gators have faced a zone defense on just 40 possessions all season — basically never. That has helped these two teams go under the total in their last three meetings.
Pick: Under 133 (Play to 131)
Hartford vs. Binghamton
Tracking rosters at this level is an arduous task. But if you do, it can provide terrific rewards.
For Hartford, that means realizing sixth-year senior Traci Carter suddenly debuted in mid-December. One of the league’s best two-way players, Carter instantly changes the outlook for John Gallagher’s team.
With Carter, Hartford did what no other America East team has been able to do: punch back against Vermont. Yes, the Hawks got down 17 at halftime against the league’s buzzsaw, but I was more impressed with what happened after the break.
Hartford went on a 24-4 run, eventually taking a brief 63-61 lead on the road against a powerhouse. That shows the upside this team has with Carter running the show.
Now the Hawks are an extremely short road favorite at Binghamton, typically a cellar dweller in the AE. In fact, in the past four seasons, the Bearcats have finished ninth, ninth, seventh and ninth.
Granted, the Bearcats have improved under interim coach Levell Sanders. They have already tallied four conference wins — the same they managed all of 2019-20 and 2020-21.
There’s some luck in there, though. Foes are making just 28.7% of their 3s through six games, a number that is sure to rise.
Oh, and speaking of 3-point regression! Hartford opponents are at 36.6% for the season and 39.5% in two league games (plus 80% FT shooting). The regression monster should aid this bet in two directions.
If Hartford can take a lead at Vermont in the second half, then the Hawks are over-qualified to win at Binghamton. This number will likely be on the move, but I would take it up to -3.
Pick: Hartford -1.5 (Play to -3)
Sacramento State vs. Northern Arizona
A week ago, I was able to hit the under in a Northern Arizona game. I once again like a game involving the Lumberjacks from Flagstaff — only this time, I’m on the ‘Jacks, not the total.
My favorite aspect of this bet is the spot. Sacramento State just lost in overtime on Saturday evening in Moscow, Idaho. Now, 48 hours later, they are in Flagstaff, Arizona, playing at altitude in a wonky venue (the Walkup Skydome).
That’s an incredibly tough turnaround for a thin team that ranks 295th nationally in bench minutes.
Meanwhile, Northern Arizona has been at home since the turn of the new year.
That’s right — zero away games in the entire month of January.
The Lumberjacks just dropped two to the superior Montana schools, but now they get an opponent in their weight class.
Matchup-wise, it helps that NAU has the best player on the court in point guard Jalen Cone. A Virginia Tech transfer, Cone is a lethal shooter who is also capable of creating for others.
Sacramento State’s backcourt lacks the quickness to stick with him, especially given the spot already laid out.
Elsewhere, the visiting Hornets and their conservative defensive scheme will not take advantage of NAU’s biggest offensive weakness: ball security. NAU has been sloppy at times (293rd nationally in turnover rate, 10th in the Big Sky), but Sacramento State prefers not to gamble or pressure.
The combination of having the best player on the floor and Sacramento State’s awful schedule spot makes this a clear NAU play for me. I love -2.5 and like -3, and I would take it up to -4 for a smaller bet.