College Basketball Odds, Picks: Three Man Weave’s 3 Best Bets for Monday (Jan. 9)
Photo by Sam Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: Jaelen House & Jamal Mashburn Jr. (New Mexico)
The College Football National Championship between TCU and Georgia has the nation's attention on Monday evening, but there's still value to be had on the college basketball betting board.
Dive in now so you don't forget about college hoops.
Monday's Three Man Weave College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Ky is targeting from Monday's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Colgate vs. Army
By Ky McKeon
Head coach Matt Langel has built the Colgate program into a Patriot League juggernaut.
Since the 2017-18 season, the Raiders have gone 69-18 in league play, but the more important stat for us bettors is Colgate’s ATS mark. Over the past five seasons — plus the three games this year — Colgate is a muscular 59-30 against the spread, or about a 65% win rate.
In that span, the Raiders have never had a losing ATS conference season; it’s been profitable to just blindly throw your money on the Raiders every year.
That trend has held this year, as Colgate has thoroughly dominated its first three opponents: Loyola (MD) by 34, Lehigh by 16 and Navy by 14.
Tonight, the Raiders face an Army squad that has also jumped out to a 3-0 Patriot start, though the Black Knights’ overall resume includes losses to Stonehill, William & Mary, Manhattan and Stony Brook (all teams that rank outside the KenPom top 300).
Colgate is so dominant because its offense is nearly impossible for any team in the country to stop, let alone the Patriot League. The Raiders have the nation’s 26th-best offense (per KenPom) and currently lead the land in effective field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.
That’s no fluke, either — Langel recruits shooting and plays four guys on the floor who can rain from deep at all times.
Army can’t really stop Colgate. The Knights just have to hope the Raiders get cold, which is a tall ask for the best shooting team in the country.
On the other end, Army will need to play its best offensive game to overcome the Colgate scoring onslaught. The Black Knights can certainly score, and their ability to shoot the 3 gives them a fighting chance every game.
Colgate has been poor this year guarding the arc, but part of that is likely due to some bad luck. Opponents are shooting 38.3% from 3 this year against the Raiders, a top-25 clip.
Langel has never had a team give up a higher percentage, and his four teams prior to this year never allowed higher than a 34% clip.
That is to say, shooting regression (and good fortune) is coming.
This game is a match between the haves and the have-nots. Colgate is simply a tier above the rest of the Patriot League and has had wild success beating teams by significant margins.
We’re riding the trend and putting our faith in a dominant squad.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Howard vs. Maryland Eastern Shore
By Ky McKeon
The MEAC is off to arguably its strongest start ever, and looks to be the best version of the league we’ve seen in quite some time.
On the surface, this may seem like a shrug-off game between two low-majors who rarely garner media attention. But in actuality, it’s a matchup between two legitimately good teams.
Both squads have the potential to earn the MEAC’s auto-bid in March and give a high seed some fits.
Both teams have scored impressive victories this season. UMES has a win at Temple and competed admirably against a stiff non-conference schedule. The Hawks went 8-3 against the spread versus non-con foes, winning all three contests in which they were favored.
Howard can’t quite match the UMES ATS mark, but the Bison were rock solid in the non-con and have been very good as of late. With victories over Buffalo on a neutral, Austin Peay and Harvard on the road, and FIU at home, Howard has shown it can be a force against quality opponents.
Tonight’s game appears to be an evenly-matched contest. Both teams should find success turning the other over. Howard has a clear advantage in the paint, while UMES has arguably the easier path to scoring from outside the arc.
Howard gets the nod tonight for a few reasons.
First and foremost, the Bison have unquestionably the best player on the floor in Elijah Hawkins. The sophomore guard is a stat-sheet stuffer and can take over games late in the clock.
Howard also has a significant size edge, and the 6-foot-10 stretch forward Steve Settle III should be a matchup nightmare. UMES will have difficulties dealing with the Bison's size and keeping them off the glass.
Lastly, Howard has been the better team recently, and it hasn’t quite yet been reflected in key analytical sites.
One of the major reasons Howard’s ranking has been weighed down was a three-game absence of Hawkins in late November/early December. In that span, Howard lost to an inferior Hampton team by nine and to Yale by a whopping 46 points.
That stretch sent the Bison’s KenPom rating down the toilet, dropping 36 spots and nearly out of the top 300.
Since Hawkins has been back in the fold, the Bison have been slowly but surely climbing back up the mountain.
Take Howard tonight as it makes a short journey over to Princess Anne, MD, and looks to get to 2-0 in the conference.
Oral Roberts vs. New Mexico
By Ky McKeon
Non-conference games in the heart of conference season are a rarity in college basketball.
When they do occur, it’s usually a featured match between two power-conference squads, like late January’s Big 12/SEC Challenge.
Handicapping these games can be challenging, as motivation is difficult to determine. If you’re a team from a one-bid league, how much does your coaching staff and players actually care about a one-off non-con game that has no bearing on your bid to the NCAA tournament?
That’s Oral Roberts’ situation tonight.
While the Golden Eagles have enjoyed an excellent season to date, their chances at an at-large bid to the tournament are slim. The Summit League has never sent two representatives to the Big Dance.
New Mexico, on the other hand, has a good shot for a bid despite its recent two-game skid. A loss tonight would suddenly send that bid into question, meaning we should be getting a locked-in Lobos squad on their home floor.
The Pit is notoriously one of the most difficult places to play in college basketball. KenPom ranks the Lobos’ home court advantage as the ninth-best in the country, and UNM is 6-3-1 ATS this season in Albuquerque.
ORU’s defense ranks 200th nationally, per KenPom. The Lobos’ up-tempo attack should have no issue putting points on the board.
Perimeter looks should be readily available, and UNM’s excellent guard duo of Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House should be able to pick apart the Golden Eagles’ defense off ball screens.
On the other end, stopping the incendiary Max Abmas will be priority number one. Abmas is one of the all-time scoring greats in college basketball, so the Lobos will be keenly focused on him.
UNM’s athleticism edge will be key on this end.
We’re backing a highly-motivated Lobos squad tonight against a dangerous mid-major. UNM will hope to do to ORU what its Mountain West cohorts Utah State did in November, when the Aggies took down the Golden Eagles by 10 in Logan.