NCAAB Odds, Pick for Charleston vs Florida Atlantic

Two ascending mid-major programs with impressive head coaches will face off Saturday as part of the Field of 68's inaugural event as a host. The game will take place on FAU's home court in Boca Raton, which has become a full house and a true advantage for the Owls as they have continued to tally wins the past couple years.

Charleston is not the same team as the version that won 21 of their first 22 games to begin last season. Considering FAU has responded to a shocking home loss to Bryant by throttling four straight opponents, Pat Kelsey's Cougars will be facing quite a challenge in their pursuit of a key road victory.

The frenetic tempo Pat Kelsey is known for preaching is still present among this year's Cougars. The efficiency and production that went along with the desire to play a high-possession game simply has disappeared this year.

Panic was prevalent among the Charleston fanbase after the Cougars lost to Wyoming on November 17th, dropping their record to 1-3 overall. At that point, the Cougars had as many tallies in the loss column as they had totaled for an entire 34 game schedule in 2022-23. Charleston likely won a couple more games than they deserved to last season, yet no one expected a steep decline would take place this year.

The Cougars have responded nicely to the early disappointment. Much like FAU, Charleston enters the weekend with momentum having won consecutive true road games at Coastal Carolina and Kent St. Admittedly, as I write this, I am not yet privy to the potential result of Charleston's first game of the weekend against Liberty. Liberty has climbed aboard the mid-major hype train with their success early this year, so I wouldn't be shocked if Charleston's momentum is halted by a loss to the Flames on the eve of their battle with FAU.

I don't think the result of the Charleston vs. Liberty game affects the handicap of the FAU vs. Charleston game much, barring injury. The handicap does, however, need to account for the simple fact Charleston will be playing on consecutive days while FAU will use Friday to recuperate.

The Owls will have the advantages of rest, the home crowd and frankly a more talented roster. If Charleston plays a tight game that isn't decided until late in the proceedings, the gap of freshness between FAU and Charleston will only be widened.

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If not for the "what the heck was that" loss FAU suffered at home to Bryant, the Owls would have a legitimate argument that this year's team may be even better than last year's Final Four team. Dusty May's decision to stay at Florida Atlantic gave the program true optimism and staying power.

Expectations were certainly high entering the year for this team. In my opinion, they were likely too high, especially given FAU's move to become a member of the much more competitive AAC. If one puts aside the Bryant result, FAU has certainly met expectations with some huge early victories over Texas A&M, Liberty, Butler and Virginia Tech in convincing fashion.

The Owls have continued to share the ball this year and have a truly balanced roster. They are not reliant on one person to carry the scoring burden. Alijah Martin, Johnell Davis and Vlad Goldin have all led the team in scoring on multiple occasions in a small sample size of only seven games. I expect that to continue throughout the season, allowing Dusty May to design offense to feature whichever player has a distinct matchup advantage.

The balance of FAU's roster translates extremely well on the defensive end as well. Depth is a strength of the Owls. Their depth gives them an ability to harass ball handlers and emphasize pressure, knowing a shift change is available if the group on the court has exerted a ton of energy defensively. The athleticism present among May's deep roster also allows them to be very switchable on defense. Smaller players like Jalen Gaffney and Johnell Davis have the wingspan and ability to guard larger players to go along with the quickness required to stay in front of opposing guards.

FAU's defense will carry the weight for the Owls in this matchup against Charleston. The Cougars have yet to find the same offensive success that led to so many victories last year. Charleston will also have the disadvantage of playing a tough Liberty team 24 hours prior to the tip of this one. FAU's defense will be an imposing sight for a potentially fatigued team.

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A fatigued Charleston team will likely struggle to find scoring against an FAU defense that has been extremely suffocating of late.

I expect Florida Atlantic to control the pace of this one. Charleston will try to push pace as they prefer, but may ultimately concede to a slower tempo considering it will be their second game within 24 hours. Unfortunately for Charleston, FAU will often be able to set their defense by default after making a basket themselves.

The Owls have allowed 108 combined points in their two most recent games against Virginia Tech and Liberty. Trust the FAU defensive intensity to stifle Charleston again in a difficult spot for the Cougars.

Pick: Charleston TT Under 67.5 (Play to 66)