CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Virginia-South Carolina, Two Other Wednesday Games
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured (left to right): South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Frank Martin, Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Bennett.
- Professional bettors are targeting three college basketball games on Wednesday night, headlined by Virginia-South Carolina (7 p.m. ET)
- Wiseguys are also getting down on Samford-Tennessee (7 p.m. ET) and Boise State-Loyola Marymount (10 p.m. ET)
- Using the tools at The Action Network, we analyze how wiseguys are betting both games.
What separates recreational bettors from professional bettors? Among many things, discipline. One of the biggest mistakes an average Joe can make is betting too many games because they love the “action” and the games are on TV. Not the sharps.
They pride themselves on being disciplined and only getting down on a few games a night that provide that most value. If there’s nothing catching their eye, they’ll lay off entirely.
Tonight, we have a massive 25-game college basketball slate. Casual bettors might be looking at a ten or more game card, but wiseguys are counting their plays on one hand.
After consulting the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games that pros are betting on Wednesday: Virginia-South Carolina and Samford-Tennessee (both at 7 p.m. ET) and Boise State-Loyola Marymount (10 p.m. ET)
>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Virginia at South Carolina
7 p.m. ET on SEC Network
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 133.5 to 125)
Sharps and squares (recreational bettors who bet for fun) seem to be in agreement on this total, likely because Virginia is known for its stifling defense and low-scoring games. UVA allows only 51.2 points per game this season, second-fewest in Division I.
The over/under opened at a low 133.5. Currently 63% of bets and 69% of dollars are hammering the under. This combination of public support and heavy smart money forced oddsmakers to drop the total all the way down to 125.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed five separate steam and reverse line moves on under 134, under 133.5, under 132, under 129 and under 127.
Samford at Tennessee
7 p.m. ET on SEC Network
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 148 to 149)
We’re looking at a classic wiseguy contrarian over in this one.
Average Joes see a high total and think “It has to go under.” But sharps aren’t taking the bait. They know the worst mistake you can make is just blindly betting over if the total is low and betting under if the total is high.
The over/under opened at 148. Currently 66% of bets are going under, but the total has risen to 149. Why would the oddsmakers raise to total give public under bettors an easier shot at covering? Because they got him with smart money from pro players, creating big liability.
Sharps steamed the over 148 and over 148.5. The over is only getting 34% of bets but 51% of dollars, further evidence of pro action.
Sharps are putting their faith in two offensive juggernauts delivering a high-scoring game, as Tennessee averages 84.89 PPG on offense and Samford averages 77.42 PPG.
Boise State at Loyola Marymount
10 p.m. ET on TheW.tv
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 127 to 129.5)
The public doesn’t know which way to go with this over/under. But Goodfellas have taken a clear side. They’ll be staying up late to sweat the over.
Despite opening at a low total of 127, only 54% of bets are going Over. However, the over also accounts for a whopping 76% of dollars. This overload of smart money forced the total up to 129.5.
In a vacuum, 54% of bets shouldn’t move a total at all, aside from a cent or two on the juice. So we know this movement was caused by respected money from professional over bettors.
We’ve triggered three separate steam moves on the Over at 126.5 and two at Over 128. We haven’t triggered a single conflicting under move (or buyback).